Citi raises gold forecast back to $3,500/oz by November on negative U.S. outlook, geopolitical risk

“U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H’25, which alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

Citi’s expected trading range for the yellow metal was also raised to $3,300 – $3,600 from $3,100 – $3,500 previously. The updated forecasts follow last week’s announcement of higher-than-expected U.S. import tariffs on many major trading partners, including Canada, India, Brazil, and Taiwan.

Citi said their higher gold forecast is also supported by weaker U.S. labor data in Q2 2025, increased concerns around institutional credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistics, and elevated geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The bank estimates that gross gold demand has risen over 33% since mid-2022, which drove prices to nearly double by the second quarter of this year. Citi analysts cited strong investment demand, steady central bank buying, and resilient jewelry demand despite the high prices.

The bullish predictions are a sharp departure from the bank’s forecasts from just six weeks ago. In a report published in mid-June, Citi’s commodity analysts lowered their gold price forecast and warned investors that the precious metal could fall below $3,000 an ounce by the end of the year.

At the time, the bank revised its 0–3 month target to $3,300 from its previous estimate of $3,500 an ounce. At the same time, it lowered its 6–12 month gold price forecast to $2,800 per ounce from $3,000.

The analysts said in June that they expect gold’s safe-haven allure to diminish heading into 2026 as economic conditions improve.

Gold showed continued strength on Monday, with spot gold setting fresh session highs shortly after the North American opened and last trading was at $3,383.91 per ounce for a gain of 0.62% on the daily chart.