As equity and bond markets looked increasingly skittish in the face of domestic and geopolitical economic tensions this year, precious metals revived their status as a flight-to-safety trade.
The spot price of gold (GC=F) bullion crossed $4,000 per troy ounce for the first time in early October. Spot silver (SI=F) crossed the $50 per troy ounce mark for the first time in decades.
Early Wednesday, gold was trading north of $4,200 an ounce. Silver was trading hands around $51.20 per ounce.
And Wall Street sees more room to grow.
If just half a percent of US assets held by foreign investors were to be moved into gold, for instance, the yellow metal could hit $6,000 per ounce, JPMorgan analysts said.
“Who sells gold?” Bloomberg commodity index products head Jigna Gibb said. “If you hold gold in your portfolio, it acts like a teddy bear in some way — it’s a point of comfort.”
While bullion is often the most visible metal for flight-to-safety trades, rising tides have lifted all precious metals. Silver and platinum (PL=F) futures have risen more than 70% and more than 85%, respectively, on the year. Futures on palladium (PA=F), another popular “platinum group metal,” or PGM, is up more than 70%, compared to gold’s more than 55% increase.
Given the Trump administration’s ongoing lack of clarity around long-term tariff policies, Macquarie Bank analysts predict that PGM prices will “pull back,” but “this dip [will] be bought and ongoing [dollar] weakness [will] then help prices make new highs during Q1.”
In the wake of the 2008 stock market crash, gold and platinum saw gains of roughly 160% and 130%, respectively, from 2008 to 2011, while silver gained more than 400%. In 2020, pandemic-driven fear trades saw gold and platinum climb more than 25% and 65%, respectively, while silver gained more than 90%.
This April, President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement temporarily crushed the stock market and sent investors flocking to store-of-value assets. Expectations for additional interest rate cuts have also provided a boost to precious metals as holding non-yielding assets gets cheaper.
Precious metals have also benefited from the so-called debasement trade. When investor confidence in fiat currencies like the US dollar falls, the play is often a move into hard assets like metals that will hold or gain value.
“That correlation is still there,” Bloomberg commodities strategist Jim Wiederhold said. “Where there’s dollar depreciation, gold is moving higher.”
Gold is on an eight-week streak of gains, which Bank of America strategist Paul Ciana said could signal near-term weakness. He noted that since 1983, each time gold has notched seven straight winning weeks, the metal ended up lower within a month.
Ciana’s colleague at BofA, Michael Widmer, also expressed the possibility of a short-term drop that could spook investors, even if the long-term trend remains intact.
“We see the risk of a correction near-term, but still expect further upside in 2026, with gold and silver potentially rising to $5,000/oz ($4,400 average) and $65/oz ($56.25/oz average), respectively,” Widmer wrote.
And if a broader pullback is to come for precious metals, it will likely be a measured set of steps downward, instead of an overnight drop.
Commodities like precious metals “take the elevator up and the stairs down,” Wiederhold said.
A general view shows the Escobal Silver Mine, a mine unit of Tahoe Resources, in San Rafael las Flores, Guatemala, on Aug. 14, 2017. (Reuters/Luis Echeverria) · REUTERS / Reuters
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.
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