(Kitco News) – Gold prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today, on some mild bargain hunting following recent selling pressure. Silver prices are sharply down and hit a four-week low, with weak long liquidation featured in the futures market. December gold was last up $5.30 at $3,358.60. September silver prices were last down $1.059 at $36.68.
It would not be surprising if strong selling pressure in silver futures is at least partly due to sympathy selling amid the big copper market meltdown seen the past two days. President Trump surprised the copper futures market with new tariff rules on copper imports, which dropped copper futures prices sharply lower. Broker SP Angel said in an email dispatch today: “Blood on the street (in copper futures) as Trump exempts refined copper from the 50% tariff he mentioned a while ago, with no immediate tariffs on copper or copper products.” Copper futures in the U.S. fell up to 6% overnight, extending the record 18% plunge Wednesday after Trump excluded refined copper from the tariff package that will start on Friday.
Asian and European stocks were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins, and at record highs.
In overnight news, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shrugged off pressure from the White House and rejected arguments for an interest-rate cut from two dissenting Fed officials, saying the U.S. central bank needs to stay on guard against any problematic inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting. However, this week’s meeting saw the first double dissent from Fed governors in more than 30 years. During his press conference, Powell said the Fed is well-positioned for now, given uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and their economic impact. His comments were balanced, tempering expectations for a September rate cut, but not ruling out a cut at that time. Markets showed no major reactions to the FOMC/Powell news.
The Bloomberg Asia dollar spot index, which tracks the performance of a basket of leading Asian currencies versus the U.S. dollar, fell as much as 0.2% in early trading Thursday, to the lowest level since May 19. The Philippine peso led declines. The Indian rupee hovered near record lows. Regional currencies were set for their biggest monthly loss this year as the U.S. dollar has surged recently, including after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday. Expectations for a September U.S. rate cut have also eased following recent upbeat U.S. economic data. Central banks across Asia have stepped up currency market intervention efforts to stabilize their own currencies. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority stepped in to buy HK$3.925 billion to defend its currency peg, while Indonesia’s central bank intervened in the foreign-exchange markets. The People’s Bank of China set a stronger-than-expected fixing to support the yuan.
Gold buying by central banks and jewelers eased in the second quarter amid the recent record high prices for the yellow metal. Central banks bought 166.5 tons in the three-month period, one-third less than in the first quarter, bringing purchases for the first half of the year to the lowest since 2022, according to the World Gold Council. Central bank demand is now forecast at about 815 tons for 2025.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures are weaker and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.35%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, and the Chicago ISM business survey.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $3,509.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $3,389.30 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,319.20 and then at the June low of $3,307.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $38.51. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $35.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $37.285 and then at $38.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $36.28 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.
Jim is the proprietor of the “Jim Wyckoff on the Markets” analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected “Pro Farmer” agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.
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