(Kitco News) – Gold prices are lower in early U.S. trading Monday, after hitting a five-week high overnight. Risk appetite has improved a bit to start a U.S. holiday-shortened trading week, evidenced by higher stock markets in the U.S. and overseas. Silver prices are near steady. August gold was last down $20.30 at $3,432.50. July silver prices were steady at $36.355.
Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings today in New York. The Israel-Iran war continues, which is keeping the marketplace pensive but not panicky. The two countries have been in on-and-off armed conflict for decades. One analytical firm said as long as crude oil prices don’t spike sharply higher, traders and investors will not get overly anxious. The wild card would be if Iran somehow blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around 20% of crude oil shipments passing through it.
In other overnight news, China’s industrial production in May rose 5.8%, year-on-year, just short of the 6.0% expected, due to its trade war with the U.S. and the impact on exports. China’s exports to the U.S. in May fell by 34.5%, year-on-year, despite the mid-May tariff reprieve by President Trump. China’s retail sales in May rose 6.4%, year-on-year, boosted by local stimulus
There is a Group of Seven meeting early this week in Canada. Meantime, the Fed’s FOMC meeting is this week, but the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.45%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.
Technically, August gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,313.10. First resistance is seen at $3,477.30 and then at $3,500.00. First support is seen at $3,400.00 and then at $3,358.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.
July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $38.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $35.00. First resistance is seen at the June high of $37.03 and then at $37.50. Next support is seen at $36.00 and then at last week’s low of $35.58. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.
Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.
Jim is the proprietor of the “Jim Wyckoff on the Markets” analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected “Pro Farmer” agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.
Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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