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By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two … Continue reading →

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A pause week for gold? Or was it? This week we saw gold fall a little but gold stocks rose nicely. We are still trying to understand the pattern that appears to be forming. It appears as a five-point 1,2,3,4,5 reversal pattern. That suggests to us that the next move should be up. But we haven’t convinced ourselves of that yet. Thus, the ambiguity of symmetrical triangles. Is it a consolidation pattern, or a topping pattern? We continue to believe it’s the former, but to convince us we need to see new highs above $3,500. So far, we’re not getting that, even as silver, platinum, and copper made new 52-week highs this past week. It all suggests that gold should follow. The RSI indicator is pretty neutral here so it also is not giving us much of a clue as the next move.

Gold fell a small 0.4% this past week. The drivers were the ongoing trade deals announced by the White House, thus easing the thoughts of trade wars, and Trump downplaying his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It all helped the US$ Index rise and lessened the need for safe havens such as gold. Silver was flat while platinum fell 1.3%. That was despite both metals making fresh 52-week highs. Palladium was down 2.1% but copper (a leading indicator, in our opinion) was up 4.1% to new all-time highs. Then the real counter came as we note the gold stocks were up nicely on the week. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) rose 5.1% while the TSX Gold Index (TGD) gained 5.8%. The HUI made 52-week highs while the TGD made all-time highs.

The strong gold stock market, even as gold itself fell, tells us that the next move should be up for gold and that $3,500 should eventually fall. Our caveat would be for gold to fall under $3,300 and especially under $3,200. That signals to us that this current corrective period could be longer and deeper, pushing potential lows out into August even September. August is more likely, but we’ll have to wait and see. That the gold stocks rose this past week suggests they don’t believe gold’s fall this past week. That was especially noticeable on Friday when gold fell 0.9% but the HUI rose 0.8% and the TGD was up 1.7%.

We’re with the gold stocks on this one. Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Falling Records, Precious Waffle, Oil Languish

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

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