Category Archives: Investment

In a recent tweet, Robert Kiyosaki warned of a looming market crash and urged investors to turn to silver, calling … Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — After a furious May rally, Wall Street analysts now have more buy ratings on individual companies in the … Continue reading →

Gold and silver are currently consolidating in a healthy manner, which is likely laying the groundwork for their next leg higher.

I’m encouraged to see them consolidating in a healthy manner, which I believe is ultimately laying the groundwork for the next leg of the bull market. Precious metals are also finding support from Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S. debt—a sharp reminder that the nation’s fiscal crisis remains far from resolved. In this environment of debt saturation, precious metals continue to stand out as reliable safe havens and powerful hedges against systemic risk.

First, let’s take a look at gold in the form of COMEX futures. I’ve noticed that gold tends to move in clean $100 increments, with strong support and resistance forming around round numbers like $3,000, $3,100, $3,200, and so on.

 After briefly dipping below $3,200 a couple of weeks ago, I’m encouraged to see that gold bounced back and even pushed above $3,300—an early sign of renewed strength.

At the moment, it appears to be consolidating sideways, catching its breath before the next move. The major resistance level to watch now is $3,500, which roughly aligns with the April 22nd high. 

A decisive breakout above that level—especially on strong volume—would confirm that gold is ready to charge toward $4,000. That’s the scenario I’m watching for closely.

Back on April 22nd, I believed gold had likely hit a short-term peak and was due for a mild pullback—and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. What tipped me off was the formation of a spinning top candlestick on that day, signaling indecision after a strong rally, combined with short-term overbought conditions that called for a cooling-off period. 

At the moment, COMEX gold futures are trading within a $300 range between $3,200 and $3,500 as the metal digests those prior gains.

What I find particularly interesting—and encouraging—is the striking parallel between the current consolidation and what happened exactly one year ago. Back then, a spinning top candlestick also marked the peak of a powerful $400 rally during March and April, which left gold temporarily overbought. That was followed by a period of sideways consolidation, much like we’re seeing now, before gold broke out again in August 2024 and went on to post significant gains through November. It’s a compelling setup, and one worth watching closely to see if history repeats itself.

I also want to highlight how gold attempted to break below the $3,200 support level on May 15th but quickly reversed and snapped back into the trading range—a sign of underlying strength:

When assets like gold rally sharply, they often become overbought, making them susceptible to pullbacks or periods of consolidation to absorb the excess. A reliable way to gauge overbought conditions is by comparing the asset’s price to its 200-day moving average—a widely used indicator that smooths out short-term volatility and highlights the underlying trend.

When the price becomes significantly stretched above this moving average, it often signals vulnerability to a correction. That’s precisely what occurred in April 2024, October 2024, and again in April 2025.

Another valuable tool I rely on is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a momentum oscillator that helps determine whether an asset is overbought, oversold, or in neutral territory. As the chart below illustrates, each time gold reached overbought levels on the RSI over the past year, it entered a healthy consolidation phase before resuming its upward trend. I believe that’s what’s happening now. Even more encouraging is that the RSI currently shows gold is no longer overbought, which indicates that the worst of the recent pullback is likely behind us.

I’ve recently begun tracking gold priced in the World Currency Unit (WCU)—a composite currency based on the GDP-weighted average of the world’s 20 largest economies. In many ways, it offers one of the most balanced and accurate reflections of gold’s true global performance, which is why I’ve been paying close attention to it.

Gold priced in World Currency Units (WCUs) clearly demonstrates that its uptrend remains strong, with a well-defined trading range between 2,400 and 2,600 that’s important to watch closely:

Next, let’s take a look at silver using COMEX futures, which tend to respect key $1 increments—such as $30, $31, and $32—as notable support and resistance levels. For the past year, silver has been trading sideways, capped beneath the critical $32–$33 resistance zone, followed by a secondary ceiling at $34–$35.

The good news is that silver recently broke above the $32–$33 zone—a sign of strength. The next key test is a decisive close above the $34–$35 zone, which would signal that silver is finally ready to launch into a sustained bull market, much like gold has done over the past year. 

I’ve also been highlighting that silver has recently been trading within a range between $32 and $34. A bullish breakout above the $34 resistance level would be a strong confirmation that further gains are likely to follow.

One of the key tools I’ve developed is the proprietary Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI)—an indicator designed to validate silver’s price action and help filter out potential fakeouts and false breakouts. 

The SSPI is calculated as the average price of gold and copper, with copper adjusted by a factor of 540 to ensure gold doesn’t disproportionately impact the index. Remarkably, despite silver not being an input, the SSPI closely mirrors silver’s price movements.

Interestingly, the SSPI is currently consolidating within a range between 2,800 and 3,000. A breakout above the 3,000 resistance level would serve as a strong bullish signal for silver as well. I’ll be watching this development closely and will keep you all updated as it unfolds.

Next, let’s turn to gold mining stocks, as tracked by the popular large-cap VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notably, GDX recently broke above the $42–$46 resistance zone I’ve been highlighting—a strong signal that gold miners are finally coming to life.

Even more encouraging, it successfully retested that zone as support and bounced, passing that technical test with flying colors. Assuming gold breaks out of its current consolidation, GDX is well-positioned to follow it higher.

Junior gold mining stocks, as represented by the GDXJ ETF, have shown a similar pattern as GDX—breaking out above the $50–$60 zone and successfully retesting it as support. That’s a solid technical sign and further confirmation of growing strength in the mining sector.

Next, let’s take a look at silver miners through the lens of the SIL ETF. It’s still trading within its $38–$43 resistance zone but is showing signs of attempting a breakout. If and when that breakout occurs—especially in tandem with a breakout in silver—I believe silver mining stocks will really shine. 

These miners are essentially leveraged to the price of silver, which means their upside potential is even greater than silver itself once the silver bull market gets underway.

Silver junior mining stocks, as represented by the SILJ ETF, are currently trading within a range between $10 and $13. A breakout above the key $13 resistance level is the signal I’m watching for—it should mark the beginning of a strong rally or even the next major bull market phase.

Finally, let’s take a look at the U.S. Dollar Index, which typically trades inversely with commodities like gold and silver. 

The index has been hovering around the critical 100 level, producing false breakouts both above and below. Now that it’s trading back below 100, the odds favor continued dollar weakness—a potential tailwind that would help propel gold and silver out of their current trading ranges and into their next rally phases.

To summarize: although gold and silver have been relatively quiet lately, don’t mistake that for weakness. The reliable indicators I track show they’re simply consolidating and gathering strength for another potential move higher. 

That said, confirmation will come only with the breakouts I outlined in this analysis. It’s also worth noting that gold may be consolidating for a similar length of time as it did last summer, given the parallels I’ve highlighted. 

If you found this report valuable, click here to subscribe to The Bubble Bubble Report for more content like it. Continue reading →

A federal trade court blocked a large piece of President Trump’s tariff agenda in a ruling Wednesday.
An appeals court temporarily paused that order on Thursday.
Even if the lower court’s ruling holds, the average household would lose $950 of purchasing power in 2025 as a result of tariffs that remain on the books, on products like steel, aluminum and automobiles, according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis.
The Trump administration has signaled more tariffs may be coming for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and lumber.

President Donald Trump holds a chart as he announces a plan for tariffs on imported goods during an event April 2, 2025, in the Rose Garden at the White House.
Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The fate of many of President Trump’s tariffs is uncertain after a string of court rulings this week.
But even if a court block on country-specific tariffs is upheld, others that would remain on the books — for products like steel and automobiles — are still expected to cost consumers almost $1,000 a year, according to a new analysis by the Yale Budget Lab.

“It does pinch” consumers’ wallets, said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.
Tariffs are a tax paid on imports, paid by U.S. entities importing the good. Businesses are expected to pass on at least some of those costs to consumers.
However, the dollar impact of those remaining tariffs is “a far cry” from what it would be if the country-specific tariffs were to remain, he said.
The U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked country-specific tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff on most nations and separate levies on Canada, Mexico and China tied to allegations of fentanyl trafficking.
A three-judge panel found Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose those import duties.

An appeals court temporarily paused the order on Thursday as it reviews the case.

Steel, aluminum auto tariffs remain

However, 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and auto parts are still in place, with some carve-outs, as well as certain tariffs on China imposed during Trump’s first term and expanded during the Biden administration, Jennifer McKeown and Stephen Brown, economists at Capital Economists, wrote in a note Thursday.
Those tariffs were imposed using different legal authorities.
If the lower court’s order holds, those remaining tariffs would cost the average household $950 of purchasing power in 2025, according to the Yale Budget Lab analysis published Thursday. That amounts to a 0.6% increase in consumer prices, it found.
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Another way consumers can view this legal development: The initial court ruling, if upheld, would save households more than $1,800 this year, said Tedeschi.
That’s because the average household would lose about $2,800 in 2025 if the country-specific tariffs were to stay on the books, Tedeschi said.
In that case, consumer prices would rise about 1.7% this year, he said.

McKeown and Brown estimate the court ruling would lower the effective tariff rate to 6.5% from 15%. It was 2.5% at the start of the year, they said.
“The most direct impact” of the remaining tariffs will be on car buying, Tedeschi said. Car prices would likely rise about 8% this year and 5% over the longer term, he said.
But steel and aluminum are inputs in a swath of consumer products, from homebuilding to household appliances.

Not necessarily ‘the end of things’ for tariffs

The Supreme Court may be the final arbiter for Trump’s country-specific tariffs, a process that may take “many months,” according to McKeown and Brown.
Additionally, “it would be unlikely to mark the end of the tariff war given the various other routes through which the Trump administration could impose tariffs,” they wrote.
The Trump administration has also signaled an intent to put duties on additional products like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and lumber.
Yesterday’s court decision was a “landmark ruling,” Tedeschi said. “I don’t expect it’ll be the end of things.” Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Underwhelming US growth and labor reports weighed on the dollar Thursday, amplifying investor uncertainty over the economic outlook … Continue reading →

Gold and silver futures have fallen roughly 4% from their highs this year. Photo: Getty Images Gold’s record run has … Continue reading →

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China controlled 69% of rare earth mine production in 2024, and nearly half of the world’s reserves.
There are barely any alternatives to China for obtaining the rare earths.
“You cannot build a modern car without rare earths,” an analyst said.

Annealed neodymium iron boron magnets sit in a barrel prior to being crushed into powder at Neo Material Technologies Inc.’s Magnequench Tianjin Co. factory in Tianjin, China.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — As China tightens its grip on the global supply of key minerals, the West is working to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earth.
This includes finding alternative sources of rare earth minerals, developing technologies to reduce reliance, and recovering existing stockpiles through recycling products that are reaching the end of their shelf life.

“You cannot build a modern car without rare earths,” said consulting firm AlixPartners, noting how Chinese companies have come to dominate the supply chain for the minerals.
In September 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense invested $4.2 million in Rare Earth Salts, a startup that aims to extract the oxides from domestic recycled products such as fluorescent light bulbs. Japan’s Toyota has also been investing in technologies to reduce the use of rare earth elements.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China controlled 69% of rare earth mine production in 2024, and nearly half of the world’s reserves.
Analysts from AlixPartners estimate that a typical single-motor battery electric vehicle includes around 550 grams (1.21 pounds) of components containing rare earths, unlike gasoline-powered cars, which only use 140 grams of rare earths, or about 5 ounces.

Pretty soon, the first generation of EVs will be up for recycling themselves, creating a pool of ex-China material that will be under the control of the West.

Christopher Ecclestone
Principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company

More than half of the new passenger cars sold in China are battery-only and hybrid-powered cars, unlike the U.S., where they are still mostly gasoline-powered.

“With slowing EV uptake (in the U.S.) and mandates to convert from ICE to EV formats receding into the future, the imperative for replacing Chinese-sourced materials in EVs is declining,” said Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.
“Pretty soon, the first generation of EVs will be up for recycling themselves, creating a pool of ex-China material that will be under the control of the West,” he said.

Only 7.5% of new U.S. vehicle sales in the first quarter were electric, a modest increase from a year ago, according to Cox Automotive. It pointed out that around two-thirds of EVs sold in the U.S. last year were assembled locally, but manufacturers still rely on imports for the parts.
“The current, full-blown trade war with China, the world’s leading supplier of EV battery materials, will distort the market even more.”

Rare torque

Of the 1.7 kilograms (3.74 pounds) of components containing rare earths found in a typical single-motor battery electric car, 550 grams (1.2 pounds) are rare earths. About the same amount, 510 grams, is used in hybrid-powered vehicles using lithium-ion batteries.

In early April, China announced export controls on seven rare earths. Those restrictions included terbium, 9 grams of which is typically used in a single-motor EV, AlixPartners data showed.
None of the six other targeted rare earths are significantly used in cars, according to the data. But April’s list is not the only one. A separate Chinese list of metal controls that took effect in December restricts exports of cerium, 50 grams of which AlixPartners said is used on average in a single-motor EV.
The controls mean that Chinese companies handling the minerals must get government approval to sell them overseas. Caixin, a Chinese business news outlet, reported on May 15, just days after a U.S.-China trade truce, that three leading Chinese rare earth magnet companies have received export licenses from the commerce ministry to ship to North America and Europe.
What’s concerning for international business is that there are barely any alternatives to China for obtaining the rare earths. Mines can take years to get operating approval, while processing plants also take time and expertise to establish.
“Today, China controls over 90% of the global refined supply for the four magnet rare earth elements (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb), which are used to make permanent magnets for EV motors,” the International Energy Agency said in a statement. That refers to neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

For the less commonly used nickel metal hydride batteries in hybrid cars, the amount of rare earths goes up to 4.45 kilograms, or nearly 10 pounds, according to AlixPartners. That’s largely because that kind of battery uses 3.5 kilograms of lanthanum.
“I estimate that around 70% of the over 200 kilograms of minerals in an EV goes through China, but it varies by vehicle and manufacturer. It’s hard to put a definitive figure on it,” said Henry Sanderson, associate fellow at The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security.

Power projection

However, there are limits to recycling, which remains challenging, energy-intensive and time-consuming. And even if adoption of EVs in the U.S. slows, the minerals are used in far larger quantities in defense.
For example, the F-35 fighter jet contains over 900 pounds of rare earths, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, D.C.
China’s rare earths restrictions also go beyond the closely watched list released on April 4.

Large rocks containing chromite, is crushed into smaller bitesize chunks, before to goes through a process to refine and extract the ore that yields chromium, a vital component of stainless steel, at the Mughulkhil mine in Logar Province, Afghanistan.
Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

In the last two years, China has increased its control over a broader category of metals known as critical minerals. In the summer of 2023, China said it would restrict exports of gallium and germanium, both used in chipmaking. About a year later, it announced restrictions on antimony, used to strengthen other metals and a significant component in bullets, nuclear weapons production and lead-acid batteries.
The State Council, the country’s top executive body, in October released an entire policy for strengthening controls of exports, including minerals, that might have dual-use properties, or be used for military and civilian purposes.

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One restriction that caught many in the industry by surprise was on tungsten, a U.S.-designated critical mineral but not a rare earth. The extremely hard metal is used in weapons, cutting tools, semiconductors and car batteries.
China produced about 80% of the global tungsten supply in 2024, and the U.S. imports 27% of tungsten from China, data from the U.S. Geological Survey showed.
About 2 kilograms of tungsten is typically used in each electric car battery, said Michael Dornhofer, founder of metals consulting firm Independent Supply Business Partner. He pointed out that this tungsten is not able to return to the recycling chain for at least seven years, and its low levels of use might not even make it reusable.
“50% of the world’s tungsten is consumed by China, so they have business as usual,” Lewis Black, CEO of tungsten mining company Almonty, said in an interview last month. “It’s the other 40% that’s produced (in China) that comes into the West that doesn’t exist.”
He said when the company’s forthcoming tungsten mine in South Korea reopens this year, it would mean there would be enough non-China supply of the metal to satisfy U.S., Europe and South Korean needs for defense.
But for autos, medical and aerospace, “we just don’t have enough.” Continue reading →