U.S. stocks looked set to rebound after President Donald Trump softened his tone on China, reassuring investors after his renewed tariff threats on Friday sent the market tumbling.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 445 points, or 1%. S&P 500 futures jumped 1.3%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9%.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 11 basis points to 4.04%. Gold futures jumped 2.3% to $4,093 an ounce, hitting yet another record, and the dollar climbed 0.1% against a weighted basket of its peers. Continue reading →

A global silver shortage is spreading from the UK to Canada and Asia, as dealers run out of coins and … Continue reading →

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he continues to support lowering interest rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.
“I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go,” he said in a CNBC interview.
The monetary policy comments came shortly after a CNBC report that Waller is one of five finalists to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he continues to support lowering interest rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.
“I’m still in the belief we need to cut rates, but we need to kind of be cautious about it,” Waller said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

On one hand, he said, the U.S. labor market appears to be losing jobs, potentially signaling a broader economic slowdown. On the other, gross domestic product growth remains strong and there remain concerns over inflation, which is still running considerably higher than the Fed’s 2% goal.
“Something’s got to give. Either the labor market rebounds to match the GDP growth, or that GDP growth is going to pull back. So whichever way that goes, it’s got to affect what you do with policy,” Waller said. “I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go.”
At its September meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved its first quarter percentage point reduction since December 2024. In addition, committee members signaled in their quarterly “dot plot” update of individual members’ expectations that two more cuts were likely before the end of the year.
Waller said he’s comfortable with that pace but doesn’t think the Fed should move faster than that. His new colleague, Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by President Donald Trump, pushed for a bigger half-point reduction and wants to see the Fed lop another 1.25 percentage points off the federal funds rate by the end of the year.
“You can always adjust as you go as the data comes in,” Waller said. “I mean, if you went 75 [basis points] tomorrow, then you have a bit of a problem.”

The monetary policy comments came shortly after a CNBC report that Waller is one of five finalists to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026. Waller recently interviewed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who in turn is sending a list to Trump of the best candidates to lead the central bank.
As part of the process, Waller sat down for what were reportedly lengthy interviews as Trump looks for a central bank more in his liking for lower interest rates. However, Waller said the discussion with Bessent focused squarely on policy.
“It was actually a great interview. I mean, it was a lot of discussion about various aspects of the Fed, talking about various speeches I’ve given my points of view,” Waller said. “I just thought it was great. I mean, really there was nothing political about it. It was all serious economic discussion.”
Waller’s cautious views on policy extend to the economy.
On the labor market, he said the past few months probably saw a loss of jobs. On inflation, he said he continues to think the impact from Trump’s tariffs will be temporary. Continue reading →

China’s third-quarter data softened after a strong first half of 2025, fueling debate on whether more stimulus is needed before … Continue reading →

Gold surged past $4,000 an ounce, hitting record highs as investors look for safe assets amid global turmoil In a … Continue reading →

Summary The S&P 500 paused after a strong rally, driven by concerns over Oracle’s cloud margins and profit-taking in tech … Continue reading →

Some of you are too young to remember the last time the silver futures were above $48. And some of you remember it too well. But this morning, the futures broke the $48 level again for just the third time in history, and are currently trading at $48.27.

Even more stunning is that this is happening just a day after a selloff where the futures dropped more than two dollars from peak to trough, from a high of $47.99 to a low of $45.71, before then shooting back higher again in the latest leg of today’s rally that began late Thursday night.

Today’s move now leaves the silver price $2.64 higher than yesterday’s low.

As we’ve discussed quite frequently in the past few months, this is the kind of volatility you can expect when you have conditions like what former JP Morgan precious metals managing director Robert Gottlieb mentioned on Wednesday.

Until that tightness is resolved, there’s a good chance we’re going to have more of the volatility we’ve been experiencing.

We talked about the surge in Indian gold and silver imports earlier this week, as well as how the SLV borrow rates have risen, and also how the silver lease rates have spiked. However, what changed since Robert wrote that on Wednesday, is that now the London spot price is trading above the Comex front-month futures contract.

In terms of what that means when the London spot price is trading over Comex, I was actually just finishing some edits for the upcoming second edition of our book The Big Silver Short, which includes a new bonus chapter with Vince Lanci of Goldfix, where he actually talked about exactly that:

It’s also interesting to see this happening at this particular time. Because after large amounts of gold and silver came from London to New York earlier this year, now the LBMA’s free float inventory is getting into dangerously low territory, and people are beginning to wonder if some of the metal could return back to London. And if the London spot price were to rise enough to overcome shipping and potential tariff risk, this is at least one of the first steps that would have to be in place for something like that to happen.

In one of Robert’s other recent comments he also mentioned how the banks are taking less risk, which is just making the market even more illiquid.

This last comment is somewhat reminiscent of the LBMA’s 2021 silver report, where they talked about what happened during the EFP crisis of 2020 following the onset of COVID.

Just in case anyone has ever wanted confirmation that the amount of contracts the banks write influences the price, the LBMA just laid it out about as clearly as one possibly could right there. ‘The banks’ risk departments continued to limit the ability of their trading desks to issue contracts,’ which ‘kept futures prices higher for longer.’

So there’s tightness in the metals, and then add on that the U.S. apparently just gave Ukraine intelligence on long-range energy targets in Russia, and is weighing whether to send the missiles that could be used to attack them.

So between the mix of the conditions in the underlying metals markets, the Fed cutting interest rates, the world realizing that we’re getting closer to Trump naming a new Fed chairman who’s going to cut rates even faster, and the current geopolitical conditions of the world, the gold and silver prices are ringing the alarm bell.

In some ways, the current silver run-up is somewhat eerily reminiscent of the spike to $49 back in 2011 following Ben Bernanke’s QE2 programs.

Silver had just crossed over the $48 level (and then $49) late in the last week of April, and you’re probably already well aware by now that when the markets opened back up that Sunday night, the same night that the government reported that Osama Bin Laden had been killed, the silver price fell $7, and was back in the $30s within a week.

Hopefully for silver investors, this time we’ll have a different outcome. And I think that’s likely, especially because of the London silver tightness, which is the key element that wasn’t there in 2011.

You could also say that we already did get a 2011-like move down back in April when the silver futures went from just over $35 at the time the reciprocal tariff announcement was made, to under $29 just a few days later.

Ultimately, it’s going to be truly stunning to watch how this unfolds, as we’re seeing history in the making. And it will also be fascinating to see if the London spot price does eventually rise high enough to start bringing metal back from the Comex, and whether that Comex metal is actually available, and at what price. Continue reading →

Shutdowns. Rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions. Domestic political tensions. Economy tensions. It all adds up for gold that keeps setting records. Oh yes, the shutdown. It even impacts gold as this week’s COT report is cancelled because the CRTC is a federal agency. China is on holidays where normally there is a lot of gold demand, but who cares. As a result, gold rises for the seventh week in a row. December futures went over $3,900. And, as we see in the chart above, we closed at $3,883.65. Coming soon – $4,000. Overbought? You bet. But so far, the market doesn’t care.  

Just like the stock market, the gold market keeps setting records. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is now only 19 away from its all-time 2011 high. Similarly, silver is roughly only $2 away from its 1980 and 2011 high. As a reminder, though, those are nominal levels. On inflation-adjusted levels, we have a way to go. Silver needs to reach nearly $200. The HUI 920. The TSX Gold Index (TGD)? We’ve surpassed it already. Ditto for gold.

On the week, gold rose 3.1% to all-time highs, silver was up 3.8% to 52-week highs, and platinum rose 2% to 52-week highs. Palladium struggles, falling 1.9%, while copper, thanks to the Freeport McMoran mine disaster and mine issues in Chile sparking supply disruptions, jumped 6.8%. My colleague Mike Ballanger who follows copper closely believes it’s on the verge of going parabolic. Billionaire financier Robert Friedland CEO of Ivanhoe Mines is saying the same thing. Copper is needed in just about everything.

Not to be outdone, the miners also rose with the HUI, up 2.6% to new 52-week highs, and the TGD gained 2.5% to new all-time highs once again. It’s been a golden year. The HUI is up 125% in 2025 while the TGD has gained 120%. Some individual stocks even more. Better still, the moribund junior miner developers are also coming to life. With junior developers one can have a life-changing moment as they gain doubles, triples, and even 10- baggers. Yet the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) that is at least 50% miners is still below its 2021 high, let alone its 2008 high. On the TSX, Gold (TGD), Metals & Mining (TGM) and Materials (TMT) continue to make new highs.

The question is, is it still safe to buy? As long as we continue to have tensions and uncertainty, gold is where one should be. Yes, overbought and corrections, even sharp ones can occur, but overall, we continue to look higher. This past week we had a sudden downdraft on Thursday, but by Friday it was all recovered. We note Thursday’s low at $3,820. If that breaks, we are probably headed for a little deeper correction. Overall, we aren’t in a deeper correction until we are under $3,700. A test of the 200-day MA can never be ruled out. Currently, that is near $3,500.

Yes, the stock market has been relentlessly climbing. But it’s heavily concentrated in the MAG7 and the FAANGs. If they falter, the market could be in trouble. Overvaluation in the stock market is a concern, but not in the gold market. Just keep up the tensions. And for that we see no sign they are going to abate any time soon. Gold stocks are still undervalued. Gold has no liability. Gold is indestructible. All the gold ever produced is still with us. Paper (i.e., stocks, bonds, even your house, and oh yes, Bitcoin)? It can be gone in a nano second.

Elsewhere, currencies were once again relatively flat with the US$ Index down 0.5%. The other currencies were mostly up with the Japanese yen up 1.4%. Oil continues to be in the doldrums (there is too much of it) with WTI oil down 7%, Brent crude off 7.5%, but natural gas (NG) rising 4.7%. Except that over at the EU Dutch Hub NG fell 2.8%. The ARCA Oil & Gas Index (XOI) was off 4.3% while the TSX Energy Index (TEN) fell 2.7%. Overall, the stocks have been performing better than the commodity. That may be a sign of accumulation for the sector. War drums keep beating in Europe. Not a good sign.                      

We’re looking for a gold correction. We have expectations of a low in the November/December period. What could cause it? An uptick in inflation and interest rates, resolution of the shutdown, or war drums dying down? Or more. But still no sign yet of a top. Watch $3,800 for clues.                                                                  Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Falling Records, Shutdown Blindness, Precious Shine

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets As U.S. markets mull the … Continue reading →

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he’s leery of cutting interest rates too quickly as threats increase both inflation and employment.
“I’m a little wary about front-loading too many rate cuts and just counting on the inflation going away,” he said.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he’s leery of cutting interest rates too quickly as threats increase both inflation and employment.
In a “Squawk Box” interview on CNBC, the central banker indicated that pressure is coming to both sides of the Fed’s so-called dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment.

“This uptick of inflation that we’ve been seeing, coupled with the payroll jobs numbers deteriorating, have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you’re getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time,” Goolsbee said. “I’m a little wary about front-loading too many rate cuts and just counting on the inflation going away.”
The Federal Open Market Committee voted in September to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Participants at the meeting indicated that two more cuts could be on the way before the end of the year.
Goolsbee is a voting member this year on the FOMC.
Though he expressed some concern about both inflation and the jobs picture, he added that data “continues to point to a pretty stable labor market.”
“I believe that the underlying economy can afford rates to come down over time, in a gradual basis, a fair amount from where they are now,” Goolsbee said. Continue reading →

Palladium, like platinum, is undervalued and is well-positioned to launch into a bull market of its own as it follows the powerful and still-developing precious metals bull market.While gold and silver have rightfully been in the spotlight lately, I want to briefly shift gears and highlight the opportunity in another underappreciated precious metal: palladium. 

Both platinum and palladium are part of a group known as the platinum group metals (PGMs), which share similar chemical properties, industrial applications, rarity, and historically high prices. Recently, both metals have seen sharp price increases as they join the broader bull market in precious metals that began in early 2024.

Palladium is a lustrous silvery-white metal that was discovered in 1802 by English chemist William Hyde Wollaston. It closely resembles platinum but is the least dense and has the lowest melting point of all the platinum group metals. Palladium does not react with oxygen at standard temperatures, which means it does not tarnish in air.

Like platinum, palladium is extremely rare. In fact, it is about 15 times more rare. To put that into perspective, if all the gold ever mined would fit into 3¼ Olympic-sized swimming pools, all the platinum in the world would fit inside a typical house, and all the palladium ever mined would fit comfortably inside a single living room! 

Due to the rarity of palladium ore deposits worldwide, Russia and South Africa together account for 78% of the global palladium supply.A palladium bullion bar minted by PAMP.

Like platinum, palladium is prized for its unique physical and chemical properties, making it essential in a wide range of automotive and industrial applications. It plays a critical role in catalytic converters, chemical manufacturing, electronics manufacturing, dental and biomedical technologies, and pollution control. Palladium is also used on a smaller scale for investment purposes and in jewelry.

Unlike gold and silver, which have long histories as monetary metals used in coinage, currency systems, and investment, palladium was only discovered in the 19th century and has seen virtually no use as money. Today, only about 2% of its demand comes from investment. 

The vast majority, approximately 82%, is driven by the automotive sector through its use in catalytic converters. Another 5% comes from chemical manufacturing, 5% from electronics, and just 1% from jewelry.

Because the overwhelming share of palladium’s demand comes from the automotive and industrial sectors, it is highly sensitive to economic cycles, much more so than gold or silver. 

This cyclical sensitivity is one reason I’ve been less enthusiastic about palladium, especially as I actively anticipate and prepare for a major economic crisis. As a result, I’ve leaned more heavily toward gold and silver.

That said, I am optimistic about palladium’s future and can see the value of having a small portion of it (around 5% or less) for the sake of portfolio diversification for large portfolios that already have a strong foundation of gold bullion for stability, complemented by some silver for additional upside exposure.

I want to highlight the remarkably small size of the global palladium market compared to gold and silver, a factor that contributes to its greater volatility and choppiness, while also presenting significant upside potential when conditions align favorably. 

The total value of above-ground gold stock stands at an impressive $26.6 trillion, silver at $442 billion, and palladium at a mere $18.56 billion, as shown in the chart below. This small scale is one of the reasons why central banks and major institutional investors largely overlook palladium, favoring gold as their preferred asset.

This limited supply means that even relatively modest investment capital could acquire a significant portion of the available stock, driving prices sharply higher. For large institutions and investors, this would be akin to an elephant leaping into a kiddie pool, causing water to splash dramatically in all directions.

The palladium market’s volatility is further amplified by its heavy reliance on mine production concentrated in just a few countries. Russia led in 2024 with 75 metric tonnes, followed by South Africa with 72 metric tonnes. Canada and Zimbabwe each produced 15 metric tonnes, while the United States contributed only 8.

As mentioned earlier, Russia and South Africa together account for 78% of the global palladium supply. This dependence on countries vulnerable to geopolitical instability and labor strikes adds significant uncertainty and price volatility to the palladium market.

Due to demand consistently exceeding supply, the palladium market has been in deficit every year since 2010 except for the anomalous year of 2011. These deficits have averaged about 500,000 ounces, or 15.55 metric tonnes, annually during that period.

The main drivers of the structural deficit have been tightening global emissions standards, which increased demand for automotive catalytic converters, stagnant mine production that struggled to keep pace with demand, and limited recycling and secondary supply. 

This persistent deficit has greatly depleted above-ground inventories, leaving the palladium market vulnerable to extreme price spikes such as those seen in 2019–2021.

Although Johnson Matthey expects the palladium market to move roughly into balance this year, the factors that created the deficit over the past fifteen years have not disappeared, and much of the damage to above-ground inventories has already been done.

Though the growing popularity of electric vehicles poses an obvious threat to demand for automotive catalysts, which are the primary driver of palladium consumption, this risk has been well known for years and is likely already factored into palladium’s relatively low price in recent years.

In addition, with U.S. energy policy shifting under the Trump administration, palladium demand may increase as pro–fossil fuel policies encourage greater use of gasoline-powered vehicles. More traditional cars and other vehicles would boost catalytic converter demand and increase palladium requirements. Furthermore, oil refining also relies on palladium and other platinum group metals.

Now, let’s move on to the technical analysis section of this report, starting with the weekly chart of palladium going back to 2022. This chart clearly shows that, after a steep decline since 2021, palladium has formed a rounding bottom pattern over the past two years. This pattern is often seen ahead of major bullish moves.

Since the beginning of the year, palladium is up roughly 40%, moving in tandem with the broader precious metals bull market, including platinum. There is a key resistance zone overhead between $1,200 and $1,400, and a decisive high-volume close above this zone would confirm the start of a new bull market for palladium.

A look at the long-term monthly chart of palladium reveals several important developments, including an uptrend line that has held since 2008 and a downtrend line that began in 2021. 

Palladium recently broke above that downtrend line, signaling that the four-year decline has ended and that a new bull market is likely underway.

One way to evaluate a commodity’s potential for further upside is by assessing how cheap or expensive it is using various valuation measures. The first we’ll examine is the real, or inflation-adjusted, price of palladium. The inflation-adjusted price is currently around $1,300 per ounce.

While this is neither especially cheap nor expensive by historical standards, it is significantly lower than the inflation-adjusted peaks of $1,933 in 2001 and $3,583 reached in 2021. 

Assuming that palladium continues to participate in the broader precious metals bull market, there is a strong possibility that it will revisit those highs or even surpass them, making those levels valuable reference points moving forward.

Another valuable valuation metric is the palladium-to-U.S. M2 money supply ratio, which is now near its lowest level in a decade. Comparing a commodity to the M2 money supply helps assess whether or not it is keeping pace with monetary inflation. Although it has largely kept pace, its current ratio of just 140 remains far below the 506 level seen in 2001 and the 388 level in 2020.

(In this chart, I indexed the ratio to a base value of 100 in the year 1985 to create a more intuitive and visually meaningful price scale.)

The resurgence of M2 money supply growth in the U.S. and globally since late-2023 has been a significant catalyst for the broader precious metals bull market during this period.

Comparing precious metals like palladium and silver to gold, the benchmark of the sector, can provide valuable insight into their relative valuation and whether they are historically undervalued, overvalued, or fairly priced. 

At present, palladium is trading near its lowest level relative to gold since 2008, reinforcing the view that it is undervalued and offers potential for future price appreciation.

Along those lines, it is also useful to compare other platinum group metals to the leader of the group, which is platinum. By that measure, palladium is trading at very low relative levels and remains far below its peaks in 2001 and 2020.

Since the start of the millennium, gold and silver have dramatically outperformed palladium, contributing to palladium’s historically low price relative to gold. 

During this period, gold has gained 1,231%, silver 767%, while palladium has risen by only 188%. However, as palladium’s bull market gains momentum, this performance gap is likely to narrow.

Another significant catalyst poised to drive all precious metals, including palladium, higher is a potential bear market in the U.S. dollar. The dollar and commodities, including precious metals, typically move inversely, meaning a bearish trend in the dollar is bullish for commodities, and vice versa.

In April, the U.S. Dollar Index broke below the key 100 support level, which has now turned into resistance. With the index trading below this critical threshold, the probability of continued weakness has increased, and the 90 level now stands out as the next likely downside target.

I foresee a substantial bear market for the dollar in the near future, driven by its extreme overvaluation relative to more than a century of historical data. Such pronounced overvaluation has only occurred twice before, in 1933 and 1985, and each time it was followed by substantial dollar declines.

The dollar’s unusual strength in recent years has been a major factor keeping commodity prices, including palladium, much lower than they would ordinarily be. 

However, an impending correction in the dollar’s value should trigger a powerful bullish surge across the commodities sector, including assets like copper, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and mining stocks.

Multiple metrics indicate that commodity prices are currently exceptionally undervalued, aligning palladium’s low prices with this broader trend. One key metric is the commodities-to-Dow ratio, which highlights that commodities remain significantly undervalued compared to stocks.

However, I anticipate this unusual condition will soon normalize through a robust commodities boom or supercycle—reminiscent of the early 2000s—and a notable correction in equity markets. 

This aligns with my broader view that we’re in the early stages of a major capital rotation out of overvalued stocks and into still-undervalued precious metals.

In addition to the commodities-to-Dow ratio shown above, I created a long-term chart of the palladium-to-Dow ratio (normalized with 1985 = 100), which shows that palladium is currently near record lows relative to stocks. 

This ratio is likely to revert to historical norms once the stock market bubble bursts, triggering a flow of trillions of dollars out of equities and into commodities and the broader natural resources sector.

Now that I’ve outlined the bullish case for palladium, let’s explore the different ways to gain exposure to it. Options range from the most straightforward forms, such as physical bullion bars and coins, to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures and other derivatives, and mining stocks.

For those who still prefer to acquire physical palladium bullion instead of ETFs, which is completely understandable, popular palladium coins include the American Palladium Eagle, the Canadian Palladium Maple Leaf, and the Chinese Panda.

Another avenue for investment is platinum group metal mining stocks, which I am interested in; however, the limited number available in the U.S. often necessitates purchases through the less transparent over-the-counter (OTC) market or Canadian exchanges, requiring a higher level of investor expertise.

In conclusion, I am optimistic about palladium’s outlook for several key reasons. These include its small and shrinking above-ground supply, the likelihood of a bullish breakout from the two-year rounding bottom pattern, and its low valuation relative to inflation, gold, the M2 money supply, and equities.

There is also the broader prospect of another commodities supercycle and the strong potential for platinum group metals to participate in the ongoing precious metals bull market, which is less than two years old and should last 10 to 15 years based on historical cycles.

Although platinum group metals are highly volatile and sensitive to economic cycles, I see the value in holding a small allocation to them within larger portfolios for diversification purposes. 

This makes the most sense when the portfolio is first built on a solid foundation of gold bullion, supplemented with some silver, and complemented by high-quality mining stocks to enhance upside potential.

If you found this report valuable, click here to subscribe to The Bubble Bubble Report for more content like it. Continue reading →

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