Summary The US dollar (DXY) is mostly softer against the G10 currencies and EM currencies. The hawkish hold by the … Continue reading →

Stocks were on course for gains on Monday, and gold prices were soaring as investors tried to make sense of lawmakers’ last-minute bid to prevent a government shutdown.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 116 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures also rose 0.3%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4%.The dollar slid 0.2% against a weighted basket of its peers, dragged down by the shutdown worries. Gold climbed 1% to hit a record high of just under $3,849 an ounce. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 4.15%. Continue reading →

After fifteen years of stagnation, platinum has woken up in a big way with an impressive 50% surge over the … Continue reading →

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about lowering interest rates as the U.S. economy grapples with the forces of slower growth and a weaker labor market.
“With inflation having been over the target for four and a half years in a row and rising, I think we need to be a little careful with getting all really up-front aggressive,” he told CNBC.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution Tuesday about lowering interest rates as the U.S. economy grapples with the forces of slower growth and a weaker labor market.
While he joined the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee last week in voting to cut the central bank’s key borrowing rate, he told CNBC that further moves would depend on economic progress.

“I’m OK with moving to be in a better spot, and I think eventually, at a gradual pace, rates can come down a fair amount if we can get this stagflationary dust out of the air,” he said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “But with inflation having been over the target for four and a half years in a row and rising, I think we need to be a little careful with getting all really up-front aggressive.”
The FOMC voted 11-1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, the first easing this year. Committee members have worried about the impact that tariffs will have on prices. While inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target, the pace of price increases has accelerated only modestly since the tariffs came on line in April.
Much of the Fed’s calculus comes down to finding the “neutral” rate that neither boosts nor restricts growth. Projections released following the meeting show the committee thinks that the neutral level would be consistent with a funds rate around 3.1%, an area where Goolsbee said he feels “comfortable.”
That in turn would imply bringing down the benchmark rate another percentage point, which the FOMC “dot plot” indicated would come with two more cuts this year followed by one each in the subsequent two years.
“I think the neutral rate of interest is somewhere below where we are right now,” he said. “If we’re on a path to get inflation back down to where it’s supposed to be, and where we promise we’re going to bring it, I think rates can come down some.”

While inflation numbers will be watched closely, so will the labor market. Recent trends have indicated a substantial softening in hiring, though the unemployment rate of 4.3% is low in historical terms.
The Chicago Fed on Tuesday introduced its own labor market monitor, including a forecast for the unemployment rate as well as other real-time labor statistics. The district’s data indicates the unemployment rate for September will be unchanged.
Goolsbee said the reports will come from 11 different data sets that will compute an jobless rate projection as well as estimates for layoffs and other separations and a rate of hiring unemployed workers. So far, the data is showing “a lot of stability” in the labor market, he said. Continue reading →

For all the talk of an AI bubble, of exorbitant valuations, and of investor exuberance, analysts are finding more reasons … Continue reading →

Previously, I showed how the silver chart has formed two remarkable, similar patterns over a period of 125 years. Here is an updated version of the chart (only closing values):

The first is a 49-year pattern from 1919 to 1968, whereas the second is a pattern that started circa 1980 and is shaping up to be very similar to the first pattern, especially in terms of timing (note that there may be rounding differences due to the yearly closing balances).

The first cup started at the 1919 peak, and it took about 13 years to get to the bottom (1932), whereas it took about 21 years to get to the secondary bottom in 1940. In a similar manner, the second cup started at the 1980 peak, and it also took about 13 years to get to the 1992 bottom and about 21 years to get to the secondary bottom in 2000.

It took about 24 years from the secondary bottom in 1940 to the break out of the cup in 1963. Last year was about 24 years since the secondary bottom in 2000, and there was a breakout as expected.

If the current pattern stays true to the original one, silver could make a possible top around 2028/9, which is about 49 years (Jubilee) after the start of the pattern. The similarity that I have pointed out here is mainly seen from a time point of view. It is expected from a price perspective that the current pattern will likely differ in some ways, and this I will deal with in my premium blogs.

Jubilee, as it relates to this period, is synonymous with sovereign debt defaults, war, and monetary reset. There will be a new monetary system after this, and there will be winners and losers just like after the Second World War.

The West as a block, with the US as leaders, was definitely among the winners. It will most likely not be the case this time. Silver and gold are even more important if you find yourself somewhere within the West.

For more of this kind of analysis, I have a Premium Service as well as a  Silver Fractal Analysis Report that provides more insight regarding the gold and silver markets.

And that, knowing the time, that now it is high time to awake out of sleep: for now is our salvation nearer than when we believed. Continue reading →

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Friday that he expects tariffs to expert minimum long-term pressure on inflation, leaving room for multiple interest rate reductions ahead.
Kashkari said a weakening labor market combined with the muted impact of the duties give him reason to advocate for at least a bit easier policy.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Friday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs to expert minimum long-term pressure on inflation, leaving room for multiple interest rate reductions ahead.
In a CNBC interview, the central banker detailed reasons why he would like the Fed to lower its benchmark borrowing level at each of the remaining two meetings this year in addition to the one the Federal Open Market Committee approved Wednesday. The three total cuts is one more than he had advocated in the prior version of the committee’s “dot plot.”

The more dovish view of rates comes even with inflation running ahead of the central bank’s 2% target. However, Kashkari said a weakening labor market combined with the muted impact of Trump’s tariffs give him reason to advocate for at least a bit easier policy. The fed funds rate is now targeted in a range between 4%-4.25%.
“So it really comes down to, do you believe tariffs are a one-time effect or something more persistent?” he said during the “Squawk Box” interview. “I’m getting more confident that it’s likely a one-time effect, but it’s going to take a couple years for it to play out.”
Kashkari does not get a vote this year on the FOMC but will in 2026.
The committee approved the quarter percentage point cut by an 11-1 margin, larger than some Wall Street observers had predicted given a seemingly wide range of views among officials. This also was the first meeting to include new Governor Stephen Miran, a President Donald Trump appointee who has been harsh in criticism of Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed in general.
However, Kashkari gave no indication there was rancor in the meeting room.

“What was remarkable about this meeting is how unremarkable it was,” he said.
Kashkari detailed his reasoning for switching to three total cuts this year in a piece on the Minneapolis Fed webiste.
In the essay, he noted that inflation expectations remain contained despite worries that the tariffs would cause another spike in prices. At the same time, he sees housing inflation and wage growth both easing.
Still, the consumer price index for August put annual core inflation at 3.1%, well ahead of the Fed’s goal and giving rise to questions over whether central bankers are content with the higher level.
“We’re not okay with 3% inflation,” Kashkari said. Continue reading →

David Tepper, founder and president of Appaloosa Management.
Cameron Costa | CNBC

Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said the Federal Reserve could cut rates a bit more, but then risks more inflation and other dangers to the economy and markets if the central bank goes further than that.
In other words, be careful what you wish for.

“If they go too much more on interest rates, depending what happens with the economy … it gets into the danger territory,” Tepper said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday.
His comments come after the central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter point Wednesday, the first cut this year, while signaling two more reductions are coming this year.
Tepper feared that if the Fed cuts rates while inflation hasn’t been fully tamed, demand can pick up faster than supply, reigniting price pressures. Meanwhile, too-easy monetary policy could potentially create asset bubbles as investors keep flocking into riskier corners of the markets.
“My view has been that one easing or two easings or even three easings don’t matter because we’re still in a little restrictive territory with a little bit too high inflation, even without the tariff induced inflation. So they should be a little bit restrictive,” Tepper said. “Beyond that, you’re really risking a lot of things, a weaker dollar, more inflation and those sort of things.”
The founder and president of Appaloosa Management noted valuations are high, but he wouldn’t bet against stocks yet while the Fed is still in easing mode.

“I don’t love the multiples, but how do I not own it?” Tepper said. “I’m not ever fighting this Fed especially when the markets tell me… one and three quarter more cuts before the end of the year, so that’s a tough thing not to own.”
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates. Continue reading →

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) – The resumption of monetary easing by the U.S. central bank could add to … Continue reading →

Wall Street is bracing for another bumpy ride ahead of a forthcoming Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of tariffs that could throw Corporate America into turmoil and raise questions over the country’s fiscal health. Continue reading →

After consolidating from April to August, gold has broken out and is now on the next wave to an upside. The records continue to fall as gold has now set a record high 30 times Continue reading →

The Federal Reserve is widely expected this week to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger … Continue reading →