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Gold’s recent surge has seen the yellow metal increase its lead over the rest, now up 32.8% since Inauguration Day on January 20. As we expected in our 2025 forecast, we believed the election of Donald Trump would be good for gold. We have not been disappointed. Gold rose 55% during Trump’s first term. Under Biden, gold rose slightly less, up 46%. We have also noted that gold appears to rise more under Republican presidents than Democrat presidents. For example, under George W. Bush gold rose 223%. Continue reading →

An overview of several price projection methods, all of which point to a short-term target of around $50 for silver. In the long run, however, silver is likely to go much higher.I love it when a plan comes together. And the plan I’m speaking of here is the bull market in silver I’ve been predicting and writing about non-stop since April of 2024. While silver has steadily climbed since then, the road has been rocky as it advanced in a three steps forward, two steps back manner.

But in June, silver finally broke out above the major $32 to $35 price ceiling that had been impeding its progress, and I said at that time that I believed silver had entered a new phase of its bull market that would be much more powerful and resilient. 

Sure enough, that is what we are now seeing happen, and I believe it is just getting started. In today’s update, I want to give you a credible reason to believe that silver hitting $50 and beyond is actually realistic in September or October.

Let’s first take a look at the spot price of silver and how it finally broke above the $32 to $35 resistance zone that acted as a ceiling throughout much of 2024 and early 2025. 

When silver broke out in early June, it was a clear sign that a major shift had occurred and that a new bull market was underway. Sure enough, silver is now soaring and has just surpassed the key psychological $40 level for the first time in fourteen years.

I see strong parallels between silver’s struggles beneath the $32 to $35 resistance zone and gold’s struggles from 2020 to 2024 below its $2,000 to $2,100 resistance zone. 

That resistance kept gold suppressed for years until it finally broke out, triggering the powerful bull market it remains in today. 

Now that silver has decisively broken out as well, there is a strong chance it will follow a similar path, and it will likely even outperform gold in the near future.

Now that I’ve shown the breakout above silver’s resistance zone, I also want to highlight the triangle pattern that formed over the past few months. 

This pattern actually provides a price target for how high silver is likely to climb during the course of this move, which I will discuss shortly.

For now, I want to focus on the triangle itself and the breakout that recently occurred, which has led to a strong rally. Triangle patterns are consolidation patterns that form when a market or asset pauses to catch its breath, and that’s exactly what happened in July and August when silver moved sideways, largely due to Wall Street being in vacation mode. 

But now that summer is ending, silver is continuing its bull market just as I’ve been expecting.

Interestingly, now that silver has broken out of its triangle pattern, we can use a principle from technical analysis known as the measured move to project how high it is likely to go. This technique estimates a potential price target based on the size of the prior move and often proves to be remarkably accurate.

I created the diagram below to illustrate how measured moves work. It begins with an initial impulse move—such as the $500 advance shown in the example. 

After that surge, the market or asset pauses to consolidate its gains. This consolidation phase can take various forms, such as a sideways trading range or a triangle pattern.

Once the consolidation is complete, the asset breaks out and resumes its rally, typically rising by an amount equal to the initial move—in this case, another $500. It’s a straightforward concept, but a powerful one.

Now that we’ve established how measured moves work, let’s apply the concept to silver following its breakout from the triangle pattern. 

The move leading into the triangle, from April to July, was an $11 per ounce gain. We project that the same $11 move upward from the breakout point at $39, which gives us a price target of $50.

Adding further weight to this projection is the fact that $50 is a major psychological level and also marked silver’s historic peaks in both 1980 and 2011. 

Of course, this does not mean silver must stop at that level. It simply represents the minimum price target based on the measured move technique.

To further confirm the bullish outlook for silver and the related price projections, it’s also worth examining gold, which is now in the process of breaking out of its summer triangle pattern. 

Gold plays a major role in influencing silver prices and is one of the key components of the Synthetic Silver Price Index, alongside copper.

We can also apply the measured move technique to gold’s triangle to estimate a potential price target. The move leading into the pattern was approximately $900, and projecting that upward from the current breakout point gives us a target of $4,400.

There are several compelling reasons to believe that silver reaching $50 and beyond in the near future is entirely realistic. One of them is the gold-to-silver ratio, which currently stands at 85.46 and shows that silver remains extremely undervalued relative to gold. 

For reference, the long-term average dating back to 1915 is around 53. 

In the shorter term, during the course of silver’s bull market, my conservative projection is that the ratio will fall to around 65, which also served as a key level in 2016 and 2021.

Doing some quick back-of-the-envelope math, if the gold-to-silver ratio falls to 65 and gold reaches a realistic $4,000, that would imply silver hitting $62, which represents a 52% increase from the current price. 

If gold instead reaches the $4,400 price target indicated by the measured move from its triangle pattern, that would imply silver rising to $68, a 67% increase. 

Either way, it’s easy to see how significant gains in silver could be achieved from current levels.

Adjusting silver’s price for inflation makes its historical undervaluation even more apparent, highlighting just how much room it still has to move higher. 

During the Hunt brothers-induced spike in 1980, silver reached an inflation-adjusted price of $198. In the 2011 bull market, driven by quantitative easing, it hit $72. 

Currently trading at just $40.67, silver has significant room to rise if it’s to catch up with these previous inflation-adjusted peaks.

Another way to assess whether silver is undervalued or overvalued is by comparing it to various money supply measures. 

The chart below shows the ratio of silver’s price to the U.S. M2 money supply, providing insight into whether silver is keeping pace with, outpacing, or lagging behind money supply growth.

If silver’s price significantly outpaces money supply growth, the likelihood of a strong correction increases. Conversely, if silver lags behind money supply growth, it suggests a potential period of strength ahead. 

Since the mid-2010s, silver has slightly lagged behind M2 growth, which, combined with other factors discussed in this piece, positions it for a strong rally.

Finally, I want to address what I believe is likely to happen once silver reaches the $50 level. This is a highly significant psychological milestone that also marked the major peaks in both 1980 and 2011. Levels like this often act like magnets, drawing prices toward them. 

I believe silver could reach $50 relatively quickly, which is typical when bull markets accelerate. However, once that level is hit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a temporary, shallow pullback or a period of sideways consolidation as the metal takes a healthy breather following such a strong advance.

But after that breather, I expect things to get much more exciting, as it would put into play the massive cup-and-handle pattern in silver that stretches all the way back to the 1960s. The resistance level of this pattern is $50, formed by the peaks in 1980 and 2011.

Once silver decisively closes above that level, the pattern points to a move into the several-hundred-dollar-per-ounce range. I fully believe and expect that outcome. 

And in case that sounds preposterous, it really isn’t—I see it becoming a reality as the world reaches the end of a massive Keynesian monetary experiment, which I believe will trigger an epic global economic crisis.

Anyway, to summarize, all the stars are currently aligned for silver, which I believe is in the early stages of a powerful bull market that will ultimately go down in the history books. 

I presented several methods for estimating how high silver is likely to rise in the short term, and they all point to a target around $50. That is not far-fetched at all, considering silver is currently just under $41. 

Of course, I don’t believe the bull market will end at $50—I ultimately see silver going much higher—but I view $50 as a strong short-term target, after which the bull market is likely to accelerate even further.

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With a surge in volume and breakouts across major world currencies, gold and silver confirmed yesterday the breakouts that began on Friday, paving the way for the resumption of their bull markets.Yesterday was a very exciting day because gold and silver both officially broke out, giving the green light for powerful rallies into year-end. This is the scenario I’ve long been anticipating as summer wrapped up and Wall Street returned from vacation mode. 

Yesterday, gold surged 1.64% to reach another all-time high of $3,533.55, while silver jumped just under 3% to hit a 14-year high of $40.88. While many are pointing to the pullback in U.S. stocks and long-dated Treasuries as the main catalyst for yesterday’s precious metals rally, I believe the move is primarily technical in nature. 

As I explained a month ago, this breakout was already long in the cards. In my view, gold and silver had been coiling like compressed springs, and now that pressure is being released, they are finally taking off.

Now let’s take a look at the charts, starting with COMEX gold futures. COMEX gold has officially broken out of its Summer 2025 triangle pattern, as well as above the key $3,500 resistance level I had been watching for additional confirmation. 

Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels tend to carry more weight than those above diagonal ones, which is why this development is especially significant.

I was also looking for a surge in volume to validate the breakout, and sure enough, we saw that in droves yesterday—a very encouraging sign that the so-called “smart money” is behind this move. With gold’s triangle pattern now decisively broken, there is a high probability that it will rally toward a target of at least $4,400.

Next, let’s take a look at the spot price of gold in U.S. dollars. Like COMEX gold futures, the spot price has now broken out of its Summer 2025 triangle pattern and above the key $3,500 resistance level, which was the high from April. This is a very encouraging sign.

I had been waiting for both COMEX gold futures and the spot price to break out and send the same message. The two have diverged more than usual lately due to the distorting effects of the Trump administration’s tariff plans and the speculation surrounding them.

I’ve recently begun tracking gold priced in the World Currency Unit (WCU)—a composite currency based on the GDP-weighted average of the world’s 20 largest economies. 

In many ways, it offers one of the most balanced and accurate reflections of gold’s true global performance, which is why I’ve been paying close attention to it.

Since its April peak, gold priced in WCU (World Currency Units) was consolidating within a trading range between 2,400 and 2,600. 

It finally closed above the 2,600 resistance level yesterday, which is a major sign of strength and confirmation that the summer consolidation is over and that gold’s bull market is resuming.

Next, let’s turn to silver, starting with COMEX silver futures. COMEX silver broke out of a triangle pattern last week, which is a very bullish signal, and then pushed above the key $40 resistance level I had been watching. 

This level marked the late July peak and is especially important because horizontal resistance levels tend to carry more weight than diagonal ones.

I had also been looking for a surge in volume to confirm the breakout and signal that the smart money is backing this rally—and we got exactly that yesterday, which is very encouraging. 

Right now, all systems are go for silver, and the next stop is $50 and higher, possibly as soon as this month, as I explained recently.

Adding to the excitement is the fact that the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), a proprietary indicator I developed to confirm whether moves in silver are genuine or simply noise or manipulation, has just broken out of the ascending triangle pattern that has been forming over the past five months. 

This breakout indicates that both the SSPI and silver are now entering powerful new phases of their bull markets.

Last week, I wrote about the major volatility squeeze forming in the SSPI and explained why it was likely signaling a big move in both the SSPI and silver. That move is now clearly underway.

Gold mining stocks, as measured by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), continue to gain momentum after breaking out of their ascending triangle earlier this month. 

With multiple factors now aligning in their favor, I believe we are still in the very early stages of the bull market for gold miners.

In addition to being bullish on gold mining stocks, I am also very optimistic about silver mining stocks and will be publishing a detailed report on them soon. 

The monthly chart of the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows a decisive breakout above the critical $48 to $52 resistance zone that has capped gains since 2016, which I view as a major bullish signal.

To summarize, gold, silver, and mining stocks have now fully broken out of their summer consolidation patterns and are in confirmed uptrends. I expect their rallies to continue at least through the end of this year, with gains likely to be explosive as public awareness and participation increase.

Although gold and silver have already performed exceptionally well over the past eighteen months, I do not believe they are too high or have gotten ahead of themselves. 

Precious metals bull markets typically last ten to fifteen years, and I expect this one to follow a similar path. It is great to see the stars align and to watch our favorite investments finally surge and begin receiving the recognition they deserve.

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