Summary Strong Q3 earnings from major banks and robust consumer data support continued S&P 500 gains, despite trade tensions and … Continue reading →

Global copper mine output is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2025 to 23.4 million tons, up from 22.9 million … Continue reading →

What’s going to stop the gold and silver market? A few things. First, that extremely overbought condition that has persisted since August. We’ve never seen one that has lasted as long as this one. Second, that stock markets took a tumble on Friday… Continue reading →

Previously, I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Here is how that looks on a chart (from longtermtrends.net):

The S&P 500 is in red, the Dow in blue, and gold and silver in their native colours. The stock market has significantly outperformed precious metals, with silver being the worst performer.

Today, if silver had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at $358.38 [(47049/78.78)*.6]. Yet, it only topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011 and has recently surpassed that all-time high.

In October 1973 (is this a coincidence?), silver was in a similar type of position when it finally surpassed its all-time high (set in 1864). The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If silver had scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of $8.128, yet it only reached the 1864 peak of $2.94 at that time.

This is how silver measured against the Dow, S&P 500, and silver at that time (October 1973):

So, much like today, the stock market had significantly outperformed precious metals, with silver being the worst performer.

However, this is how it looked about 5 months later when silver more than doubled in value (charts generated at longtermtrends.net):

Silver made up significant ground and surpassed gold during that time. There is a high probability that silver will perform in a similar manner and even better over the coming months.

Of course, silver eventually surpassed both the Dow and S&P 500 before the end of that bull market. It also eventually topped the Dow’s performance as of October 1973. A similar feat would mean silver surpassing the $358 level in this bull market.

A possible path to the $358 is shown on one of the many charts that I track on my silver and gold premium blog:

More information on the chart can be found here.

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman Continue reading →

U.S. stocks looked set to rebound after President Donald Trump softened his tone on China, reassuring investors after his renewed tariff threats on Friday sent the market tumbling.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 445 points, or 1%. S&P 500 futures jumped 1.3%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9%.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 11 basis points to 4.04%. Gold futures jumped 2.3% to $4,093 an ounce, hitting yet another record, and the dollar climbed 0.1% against a weighted basket of its peers. Continue reading →

A global silver shortage is spreading from the UK to Canada and Asia, as dealers run out of coins and … Continue reading →

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he continues to support lowering interest rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.
“I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go,” he said in a CNBC interview.
The monetary policy comments came shortly after a CNBC report that Waller is one of five finalists to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he continues to support lowering interest rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.
“I’m still in the belief we need to cut rates, but we need to kind of be cautious about it,” Waller said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

On one hand, he said, the U.S. labor market appears to be losing jobs, potentially signaling a broader economic slowdown. On the other, gross domestic product growth remains strong and there remain concerns over inflation, which is still running considerably higher than the Fed’s 2% goal.
“Something’s got to give. Either the labor market rebounds to match the GDP growth, or that GDP growth is going to pull back. So whichever way that goes, it’s got to affect what you do with policy,” Waller said. “I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go.”
At its September meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved its first quarter percentage point reduction since December 2024. In addition, committee members signaled in their quarterly “dot plot” update of individual members’ expectations that two more cuts were likely before the end of the year.
Waller said he’s comfortable with that pace but doesn’t think the Fed should move faster than that. His new colleague, Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by President Donald Trump, pushed for a bigger half-point reduction and wants to see the Fed lop another 1.25 percentage points off the federal funds rate by the end of the year.
“You can always adjust as you go as the data comes in,” Waller said. “I mean, if you went 75 [basis points] tomorrow, then you have a bit of a problem.”

The monetary policy comments came shortly after a CNBC report that Waller is one of five finalists to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026. Waller recently interviewed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who in turn is sending a list to Trump of the best candidates to lead the central bank.
As part of the process, Waller sat down for what were reportedly lengthy interviews as Trump looks for a central bank more in his liking for lower interest rates. However, Waller said the discussion with Bessent focused squarely on policy.
“It was actually a great interview. I mean, it was a lot of discussion about various aspects of the Fed, talking about various speeches I’ve given my points of view,” Waller said. “I just thought it was great. I mean, really there was nothing political about it. It was all serious economic discussion.”
Waller’s cautious views on policy extend to the economy.
On the labor market, he said the past few months probably saw a loss of jobs. On inflation, he said he continues to think the impact from Trump’s tariffs will be temporary. Continue reading →

China’s third-quarter data softened after a strong first half of 2025, fueling debate on whether more stimulus is needed before … Continue reading →

Gold surged past $4,000 an ounce, hitting record highs as investors look for safe assets amid global turmoil In a … Continue reading →

Summary The S&P 500 paused after a strong rally, driven by concerns over Oracle’s cloud margins and profit-taking in tech … Continue reading →

Some of you are too young to remember the last time the silver futures were above $48. And some of you remember it too well. But this morning, the futures broke the $48 level again for just the third time in history, and are currently trading at $48.27.

Even more stunning is that this is happening just a day after a selloff where the futures dropped more than two dollars from peak to trough, from a high of $47.99 to a low of $45.71, before then shooting back higher again in the latest leg of today’s rally that began late Thursday night.

Today’s move now leaves the silver price $2.64 higher than yesterday’s low.

As we’ve discussed quite frequently in the past few months, this is the kind of volatility you can expect when you have conditions like what former JP Morgan precious metals managing director Robert Gottlieb mentioned on Wednesday.

Until that tightness is resolved, there’s a good chance we’re going to have more of the volatility we’ve been experiencing.

We talked about the surge in Indian gold and silver imports earlier this week, as well as how the SLV borrow rates have risen, and also how the silver lease rates have spiked. However, what changed since Robert wrote that on Wednesday, is that now the London spot price is trading above the Comex front-month futures contract.

In terms of what that means when the London spot price is trading over Comex, I was actually just finishing some edits for the upcoming second edition of our book The Big Silver Short, which includes a new bonus chapter with Vince Lanci of Goldfix, where he actually talked about exactly that:

It’s also interesting to see this happening at this particular time. Because after large amounts of gold and silver came from London to New York earlier this year, now the LBMA’s free float inventory is getting into dangerously low territory, and people are beginning to wonder if some of the metal could return back to London. And if the London spot price were to rise enough to overcome shipping and potential tariff risk, this is at least one of the first steps that would have to be in place for something like that to happen.

In one of Robert’s other recent comments he also mentioned how the banks are taking less risk, which is just making the market even more illiquid.

This last comment is somewhat reminiscent of the LBMA’s 2021 silver report, where they talked about what happened during the EFP crisis of 2020 following the onset of COVID.

Just in case anyone has ever wanted confirmation that the amount of contracts the banks write influences the price, the LBMA just laid it out about as clearly as one possibly could right there. ‘The banks’ risk departments continued to limit the ability of their trading desks to issue contracts,’ which ‘kept futures prices higher for longer.’

So there’s tightness in the metals, and then add on that the U.S. apparently just gave Ukraine intelligence on long-range energy targets in Russia, and is weighing whether to send the missiles that could be used to attack them.

So between the mix of the conditions in the underlying metals markets, the Fed cutting interest rates, the world realizing that we’re getting closer to Trump naming a new Fed chairman who’s going to cut rates even faster, and the current geopolitical conditions of the world, the gold and silver prices are ringing the alarm bell.

In some ways, the current silver run-up is somewhat eerily reminiscent of the spike to $49 back in 2011 following Ben Bernanke’s QE2 programs.

Silver had just crossed over the $48 level (and then $49) late in the last week of April, and you’re probably already well aware by now that when the markets opened back up that Sunday night, the same night that the government reported that Osama Bin Laden had been killed, the silver price fell $7, and was back in the $30s within a week.

Hopefully for silver investors, this time we’ll have a different outcome. And I think that’s likely, especially because of the London silver tightness, which is the key element that wasn’t there in 2011.

You could also say that we already did get a 2011-like move down back in April when the silver futures went from just over $35 at the time the reciprocal tariff announcement was made, to under $29 just a few days later.

Ultimately, it’s going to be truly stunning to watch how this unfolds, as we’re seeing history in the making. And it will also be fascinating to see if the London spot price does eventually rise high enough to start bringing metal back from the Comex, and whether that Comex metal is actually available, and at what price. Continue reading →

Shutdowns. Rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions. Domestic political tensions. Economy tensions. It all adds up for gold that keeps setting records. Oh yes, the shutdown. It even impacts gold as this week’s COT report is cancelled because the CRTC is a federal agency. China is on holidays where normally there is a lot of gold demand, but who cares. As a result, gold rises for the seventh week in a row. December futures went over $3,900. And, as we see in the chart above, we closed at $3,883.65. Coming soon – $4,000. Overbought? You bet. But so far, the market doesn’t care.  

Just like the stock market, the gold market keeps setting records. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is now only 19 away from its all-time 2011 high. Similarly, silver is roughly only $2 away from its 1980 and 2011 high. As a reminder, though, those are nominal levels. On inflation-adjusted levels, we have a way to go. Silver needs to reach nearly $200. The HUI 920. The TSX Gold Index (TGD)? We’ve surpassed it already. Ditto for gold.

On the week, gold rose 3.1% to all-time highs, silver was up 3.8% to 52-week highs, and platinum rose 2% to 52-week highs. Palladium struggles, falling 1.9%, while copper, thanks to the Freeport McMoran mine disaster and mine issues in Chile sparking supply disruptions, jumped 6.8%. My colleague Mike Ballanger who follows copper closely believes it’s on the verge of going parabolic. Billionaire financier Robert Friedland CEO of Ivanhoe Mines is saying the same thing. Copper is needed in just about everything.

Not to be outdone, the miners also rose with the HUI, up 2.6% to new 52-week highs, and the TGD gained 2.5% to new all-time highs once again. It’s been a golden year. The HUI is up 125% in 2025 while the TGD has gained 120%. Some individual stocks even more. Better still, the moribund junior miner developers are also coming to life. With junior developers one can have a life-changing moment as they gain doubles, triples, and even 10- baggers. Yet the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) that is at least 50% miners is still below its 2021 high, let alone its 2008 high. On the TSX, Gold (TGD), Metals & Mining (TGM) and Materials (TMT) continue to make new highs.

The question is, is it still safe to buy? As long as we continue to have tensions and uncertainty, gold is where one should be. Yes, overbought and corrections, even sharp ones can occur, but overall, we continue to look higher. This past week we had a sudden downdraft on Thursday, but by Friday it was all recovered. We note Thursday’s low at $3,820. If that breaks, we are probably headed for a little deeper correction. Overall, we aren’t in a deeper correction until we are under $3,700. A test of the 200-day MA can never be ruled out. Currently, that is near $3,500.

Yes, the stock market has been relentlessly climbing. But it’s heavily concentrated in the MAG7 and the FAANGs. If they falter, the market could be in trouble. Overvaluation in the stock market is a concern, but not in the gold market. Just keep up the tensions. And for that we see no sign they are going to abate any time soon. Gold stocks are still undervalued. Gold has no liability. Gold is indestructible. All the gold ever produced is still with us. Paper (i.e., stocks, bonds, even your house, and oh yes, Bitcoin)? It can be gone in a nano second.

Elsewhere, currencies were once again relatively flat with the US$ Index down 0.5%. The other currencies were mostly up with the Japanese yen up 1.4%. Oil continues to be in the doldrums (there is too much of it) with WTI oil down 7%, Brent crude off 7.5%, but natural gas (NG) rising 4.7%. Except that over at the EU Dutch Hub NG fell 2.8%. The ARCA Oil & Gas Index (XOI) was off 4.3% while the TSX Energy Index (TEN) fell 2.7%. Overall, the stocks have been performing better than the commodity. That may be a sign of accumulation for the sector. War drums keep beating in Europe. Not a good sign.                      

We’re looking for a gold correction. We have expectations of a low in the November/December period. What could cause it? An uptick in inflation and interest rates, resolution of the shutdown, or war drums dying down? Or more. But still no sign yet of a top. Watch $3,800 for clues.                                                                  Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Falling Records, Shutdown Blindness, Precious Shine

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →