What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets As U.S. markets mull the … Continue reading →

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he’s leery of cutting interest rates too quickly as threats increase both inflation and employment.
“I’m a little wary about front-loading too many rate cuts and just counting on the inflation going away,” he said.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he’s leery of cutting interest rates too quickly as threats increase both inflation and employment.
In a “Squawk Box” interview on CNBC, the central banker indicated that pressure is coming to both sides of the Fed’s so-called dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment.

“This uptick of inflation that we’ve been seeing, coupled with the payroll jobs numbers deteriorating, have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you’re getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time,” Goolsbee said. “I’m a little wary about front-loading too many rate cuts and just counting on the inflation going away.”
The Federal Open Market Committee voted in September to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Participants at the meeting indicated that two more cuts could be on the way before the end of the year.
Goolsbee is a voting member this year on the FOMC.
Though he expressed some concern about both inflation and the jobs picture, he added that data “continues to point to a pretty stable labor market.”
“I believe that the underlying economy can afford rates to come down over time, in a gradual basis, a fair amount from where they are now,” Goolsbee said. Continue reading →

Palladium, like platinum, is undervalued and is well-positioned to launch into a bull market of its own as it follows the powerful and still-developing precious metals bull market.While gold and silver have rightfully been in the spotlight lately, I want to briefly shift gears and highlight the opportunity in another underappreciated precious metal: palladium. 

Both platinum and palladium are part of a group known as the platinum group metals (PGMs), which share similar chemical properties, industrial applications, rarity, and historically high prices. Recently, both metals have seen sharp price increases as they join the broader bull market in precious metals that began in early 2024.

Palladium is a lustrous silvery-white metal that was discovered in 1802 by English chemist William Hyde Wollaston. It closely resembles platinum but is the least dense and has the lowest melting point of all the platinum group metals. Palladium does not react with oxygen at standard temperatures, which means it does not tarnish in air.

Like platinum, palladium is extremely rare. In fact, it is about 15 times more rare. To put that into perspective, if all the gold ever mined would fit into 3¼ Olympic-sized swimming pools, all the platinum in the world would fit inside a typical house, and all the palladium ever mined would fit comfortably inside a single living room! 

Due to the rarity of palladium ore deposits worldwide, Russia and South Africa together account for 78% of the global palladium supply.A palladium bullion bar minted by PAMP.

Like platinum, palladium is prized for its unique physical and chemical properties, making it essential in a wide range of automotive and industrial applications. It plays a critical role in catalytic converters, chemical manufacturing, electronics manufacturing, dental and biomedical technologies, and pollution control. Palladium is also used on a smaller scale for investment purposes and in jewelry.

Unlike gold and silver, which have long histories as monetary metals used in coinage, currency systems, and investment, palladium was only discovered in the 19th century and has seen virtually no use as money. Today, only about 2% of its demand comes from investment. 

The vast majority, approximately 82%, is driven by the automotive sector through its use in catalytic converters. Another 5% comes from chemical manufacturing, 5% from electronics, and just 1% from jewelry.

Because the overwhelming share of palladium’s demand comes from the automotive and industrial sectors, it is highly sensitive to economic cycles, much more so than gold or silver. 

This cyclical sensitivity is one reason I’ve been less enthusiastic about palladium, especially as I actively anticipate and prepare for a major economic crisis. As a result, I’ve leaned more heavily toward gold and silver.

That said, I am optimistic about palladium’s future and can see the value of having a small portion of it (around 5% or less) for the sake of portfolio diversification for large portfolios that already have a strong foundation of gold bullion for stability, complemented by some silver for additional upside exposure.

I want to highlight the remarkably small size of the global palladium market compared to gold and silver, a factor that contributes to its greater volatility and choppiness, while also presenting significant upside potential when conditions align favorably. 

The total value of above-ground gold stock stands at an impressive $26.6 trillion, silver at $442 billion, and palladium at a mere $18.56 billion, as shown in the chart below. This small scale is one of the reasons why central banks and major institutional investors largely overlook palladium, favoring gold as their preferred asset.

This limited supply means that even relatively modest investment capital could acquire a significant portion of the available stock, driving prices sharply higher. For large institutions and investors, this would be akin to an elephant leaping into a kiddie pool, causing water to splash dramatically in all directions.

The palladium market’s volatility is further amplified by its heavy reliance on mine production concentrated in just a few countries. Russia led in 2024 with 75 metric tonnes, followed by South Africa with 72 metric tonnes. Canada and Zimbabwe each produced 15 metric tonnes, while the United States contributed only 8.

As mentioned earlier, Russia and South Africa together account for 78% of the global palladium supply. This dependence on countries vulnerable to geopolitical instability and labor strikes adds significant uncertainty and price volatility to the palladium market.

Due to demand consistently exceeding supply, the palladium market has been in deficit every year since 2010 except for the anomalous year of 2011. These deficits have averaged about 500,000 ounces, or 15.55 metric tonnes, annually during that period.

The main drivers of the structural deficit have been tightening global emissions standards, which increased demand for automotive catalytic converters, stagnant mine production that struggled to keep pace with demand, and limited recycling and secondary supply. 

This persistent deficit has greatly depleted above-ground inventories, leaving the palladium market vulnerable to extreme price spikes such as those seen in 2019–2021.

Although Johnson Matthey expects the palladium market to move roughly into balance this year, the factors that created the deficit over the past fifteen years have not disappeared, and much of the damage to above-ground inventories has already been done.

Though the growing popularity of electric vehicles poses an obvious threat to demand for automotive catalysts, which are the primary driver of palladium consumption, this risk has been well known for years and is likely already factored into palladium’s relatively low price in recent years.

In addition, with U.S. energy policy shifting under the Trump administration, palladium demand may increase as pro–fossil fuel policies encourage greater use of gasoline-powered vehicles. More traditional cars and other vehicles would boost catalytic converter demand and increase palladium requirements. Furthermore, oil refining also relies on palladium and other platinum group metals.

Now, let’s move on to the technical analysis section of this report, starting with the weekly chart of palladium going back to 2022. This chart clearly shows that, after a steep decline since 2021, palladium has formed a rounding bottom pattern over the past two years. This pattern is often seen ahead of major bullish moves.

Since the beginning of the year, palladium is up roughly 40%, moving in tandem with the broader precious metals bull market, including platinum. There is a key resistance zone overhead between $1,200 and $1,400, and a decisive high-volume close above this zone would confirm the start of a new bull market for palladium.

A look at the long-term monthly chart of palladium reveals several important developments, including an uptrend line that has held since 2008 and a downtrend line that began in 2021. 

Palladium recently broke above that downtrend line, signaling that the four-year decline has ended and that a new bull market is likely underway.

One way to evaluate a commodity’s potential for further upside is by assessing how cheap or expensive it is using various valuation measures. The first we’ll examine is the real, or inflation-adjusted, price of palladium. The inflation-adjusted price is currently around $1,300 per ounce.

While this is neither especially cheap nor expensive by historical standards, it is significantly lower than the inflation-adjusted peaks of $1,933 in 2001 and $3,583 reached in 2021. 

Assuming that palladium continues to participate in the broader precious metals bull market, there is a strong possibility that it will revisit those highs or even surpass them, making those levels valuable reference points moving forward.

Another valuable valuation metric is the palladium-to-U.S. M2 money supply ratio, which is now near its lowest level in a decade. Comparing a commodity to the M2 money supply helps assess whether or not it is keeping pace with monetary inflation. Although it has largely kept pace, its current ratio of just 140 remains far below the 506 level seen in 2001 and the 388 level in 2020.

(In this chart, I indexed the ratio to a base value of 100 in the year 1985 to create a more intuitive and visually meaningful price scale.)

The resurgence of M2 money supply growth in the U.S. and globally since late-2023 has been a significant catalyst for the broader precious metals bull market during this period.

Comparing precious metals like palladium and silver to gold, the benchmark of the sector, can provide valuable insight into their relative valuation and whether they are historically undervalued, overvalued, or fairly priced. 

At present, palladium is trading near its lowest level relative to gold since 2008, reinforcing the view that it is undervalued and offers potential for future price appreciation.

Along those lines, it is also useful to compare other platinum group metals to the leader of the group, which is platinum. By that measure, palladium is trading at very low relative levels and remains far below its peaks in 2001 and 2020.

Since the start of the millennium, gold and silver have dramatically outperformed palladium, contributing to palladium’s historically low price relative to gold. 

During this period, gold has gained 1,231%, silver 767%, while palladium has risen by only 188%. However, as palladium’s bull market gains momentum, this performance gap is likely to narrow.

Another significant catalyst poised to drive all precious metals, including palladium, higher is a potential bear market in the U.S. dollar. The dollar and commodities, including precious metals, typically move inversely, meaning a bearish trend in the dollar is bullish for commodities, and vice versa.

In April, the U.S. Dollar Index broke below the key 100 support level, which has now turned into resistance. With the index trading below this critical threshold, the probability of continued weakness has increased, and the 90 level now stands out as the next likely downside target.

I foresee a substantial bear market for the dollar in the near future, driven by its extreme overvaluation relative to more than a century of historical data. Such pronounced overvaluation has only occurred twice before, in 1933 and 1985, and each time it was followed by substantial dollar declines.

The dollar’s unusual strength in recent years has been a major factor keeping commodity prices, including palladium, much lower than they would ordinarily be. 

However, an impending correction in the dollar’s value should trigger a powerful bullish surge across the commodities sector, including assets like copper, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and mining stocks.

Multiple metrics indicate that commodity prices are currently exceptionally undervalued, aligning palladium’s low prices with this broader trend. One key metric is the commodities-to-Dow ratio, which highlights that commodities remain significantly undervalued compared to stocks.

However, I anticipate this unusual condition will soon normalize through a robust commodities boom or supercycle—reminiscent of the early 2000s—and a notable correction in equity markets. 

This aligns with my broader view that we’re in the early stages of a major capital rotation out of overvalued stocks and into still-undervalued precious metals.

In addition to the commodities-to-Dow ratio shown above, I created a long-term chart of the palladium-to-Dow ratio (normalized with 1985 = 100), which shows that palladium is currently near record lows relative to stocks. 

This ratio is likely to revert to historical norms once the stock market bubble bursts, triggering a flow of trillions of dollars out of equities and into commodities and the broader natural resources sector.

Now that I’ve outlined the bullish case for palladium, let’s explore the different ways to gain exposure to it. Options range from the most straightforward forms, such as physical bullion bars and coins, to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures and other derivatives, and mining stocks.

For those who still prefer to acquire physical palladium bullion instead of ETFs, which is completely understandable, popular palladium coins include the American Palladium Eagle, the Canadian Palladium Maple Leaf, and the Chinese Panda.

Another avenue for investment is platinum group metal mining stocks, which I am interested in; however, the limited number available in the U.S. often necessitates purchases through the less transparent over-the-counter (OTC) market or Canadian exchanges, requiring a higher level of investor expertise.

In conclusion, I am optimistic about palladium’s outlook for several key reasons. These include its small and shrinking above-ground supply, the likelihood of a bullish breakout from the two-year rounding bottom pattern, and its low valuation relative to inflation, gold, the M2 money supply, and equities.

There is also the broader prospect of another commodities supercycle and the strong potential for platinum group metals to participate in the ongoing precious metals bull market, which is less than two years old and should last 10 to 15 years based on historical cycles.

Although platinum group metals are highly volatile and sensitive to economic cycles, I see the value in holding a small allocation to them within larger portfolios for diversification purposes. 

This makes the most sense when the portfolio is first built on a solid foundation of gold bullion, supplemented with some silver, and complemented by high-quality mining stocks to enhance upside potential.

If you found this report valuable, click here to subscribe to The Bubble Bubble Report for more content like it. Continue reading →

Summary The S&P 500’s high valuation is justified by strong earnings growth, AI-driven disruption, and increasing international revenue exposure. Despite … Continue reading →

Summary The US dollar (DXY) is mostly softer against the G10 currencies and EM currencies. The hawkish hold by the … Continue reading →

Stocks were on course for gains on Monday, and gold prices were soaring as investors tried to make sense of lawmakers’ last-minute bid to prevent a government shutdown.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 116 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures also rose 0.3%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4%.The dollar slid 0.2% against a weighted basket of its peers, dragged down by the shutdown worries. Gold climbed 1% to hit a record high of just under $3,849 an ounce. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 4.15%. Continue reading →

After fifteen years of stagnation, platinum has woken up in a big way with an impressive 50% surge over the … Continue reading →

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about lowering interest rates as the U.S. economy grapples with the forces of slower growth and a weaker labor market.
“With inflation having been over the target for four and a half years in a row and rising, I think we need to be a little careful with getting all really up-front aggressive,” he told CNBC.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution Tuesday about lowering interest rates as the U.S. economy grapples with the forces of slower growth and a weaker labor market.
While he joined the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee last week in voting to cut the central bank’s key borrowing rate, he told CNBC that further moves would depend on economic progress.

“I’m OK with moving to be in a better spot, and I think eventually, at a gradual pace, rates can come down a fair amount if we can get this stagflationary dust out of the air,” he said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “But with inflation having been over the target for four and a half years in a row and rising, I think we need to be a little careful with getting all really up-front aggressive.”
The FOMC voted 11-1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, the first easing this year. Committee members have worried about the impact that tariffs will have on prices. While inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target, the pace of price increases has accelerated only modestly since the tariffs came on line in April.
Much of the Fed’s calculus comes down to finding the “neutral” rate that neither boosts nor restricts growth. Projections released following the meeting show the committee thinks that the neutral level would be consistent with a funds rate around 3.1%, an area where Goolsbee said he feels “comfortable.”
That in turn would imply bringing down the benchmark rate another percentage point, which the FOMC “dot plot” indicated would come with two more cuts this year followed by one each in the subsequent two years.
“I think the neutral rate of interest is somewhere below where we are right now,” he said. “If we’re on a path to get inflation back down to where it’s supposed to be, and where we promise we’re going to bring it, I think rates can come down some.”

While inflation numbers will be watched closely, so will the labor market. Recent trends have indicated a substantial softening in hiring, though the unemployment rate of 4.3% is low in historical terms.
The Chicago Fed on Tuesday introduced its own labor market monitor, including a forecast for the unemployment rate as well as other real-time labor statistics. The district’s data indicates the unemployment rate for September will be unchanged.
Goolsbee said the reports will come from 11 different data sets that will compute an jobless rate projection as well as estimates for layoffs and other separations and a rate of hiring unemployed workers. So far, the data is showing “a lot of stability” in the labor market, he said. Continue reading →

For all the talk of an AI bubble, of exorbitant valuations, and of investor exuberance, analysts are finding more reasons … Continue reading →

Previously, I showed how the silver chart has formed two remarkable, similar patterns over a period of 125 years. Here is an updated version of the chart (only closing values):

The first is a 49-year pattern from 1919 to 1968, whereas the second is a pattern that started circa 1980 and is shaping up to be very similar to the first pattern, especially in terms of timing (note that there may be rounding differences due to the yearly closing balances).

The first cup started at the 1919 peak, and it took about 13 years to get to the bottom (1932), whereas it took about 21 years to get to the secondary bottom in 1940. In a similar manner, the second cup started at the 1980 peak, and it also took about 13 years to get to the 1992 bottom and about 21 years to get to the secondary bottom in 2000.

It took about 24 years from the secondary bottom in 1940 to the break out of the cup in 1963. Last year was about 24 years since the secondary bottom in 2000, and there was a breakout as expected.

If the current pattern stays true to the original one, silver could make a possible top around 2028/9, which is about 49 years (Jubilee) after the start of the pattern. The similarity that I have pointed out here is mainly seen from a time point of view. It is expected from a price perspective that the current pattern will likely differ in some ways, and this I will deal with in my premium blogs.

Jubilee, as it relates to this period, is synonymous with sovereign debt defaults, war, and monetary reset. There will be a new monetary system after this, and there will be winners and losers just like after the Second World War.

The West as a block, with the US as leaders, was definitely among the winners. It will most likely not be the case this time. Silver and gold are even more important if you find yourself somewhere within the West.

For more of this kind of analysis, I have a Premium Service as well as a  Silver Fractal Analysis Report that provides more insight regarding the gold and silver markets.

And that, knowing the time, that now it is high time to awake out of sleep: for now is our salvation nearer than when we believed. Continue reading →

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Friday that he expects tariffs to expert minimum long-term pressure on inflation, leaving room for multiple interest rate reductions ahead.
Kashkari said a weakening labor market combined with the muted impact of the duties give him reason to advocate for at least a bit easier policy.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Friday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs to expert minimum long-term pressure on inflation, leaving room for multiple interest rate reductions ahead.
In a CNBC interview, the central banker detailed reasons why he would like the Fed to lower its benchmark borrowing level at each of the remaining two meetings this year in addition to the one the Federal Open Market Committee approved Wednesday. The three total cuts is one more than he had advocated in the prior version of the committee’s “dot plot.”

The more dovish view of rates comes even with inflation running ahead of the central bank’s 2% target. However, Kashkari said a weakening labor market combined with the muted impact of Trump’s tariffs give him reason to advocate for at least a bit easier policy. The fed funds rate is now targeted in a range between 4%-4.25%.
“So it really comes down to, do you believe tariffs are a one-time effect or something more persistent?” he said during the “Squawk Box” interview. “I’m getting more confident that it’s likely a one-time effect, but it’s going to take a couple years for it to play out.”
Kashkari does not get a vote this year on the FOMC but will in 2026.
The committee approved the quarter percentage point cut by an 11-1 margin, larger than some Wall Street observers had predicted given a seemingly wide range of views among officials. This also was the first meeting to include new Governor Stephen Miran, a President Donald Trump appointee who has been harsh in criticism of Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed in general.
However, Kashkari gave no indication there was rancor in the meeting room.

“What was remarkable about this meeting is how unremarkable it was,” he said.
Kashkari detailed his reasoning for switching to three total cuts this year in a piece on the Minneapolis Fed webiste.
In the essay, he noted that inflation expectations remain contained despite worries that the tariffs would cause another spike in prices. At the same time, he sees housing inflation and wage growth both easing.
Still, the consumer price index for August put annual core inflation at 3.1%, well ahead of the Fed’s goal and giving rise to questions over whether central bankers are content with the higher level.
“We’re not okay with 3% inflation,” Kashkari said. Continue reading →

David Tepper, founder and president of Appaloosa Management.
Cameron Costa | CNBC

Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said the Federal Reserve could cut rates a bit more, but then risks more inflation and other dangers to the economy and markets if the central bank goes further than that.
In other words, be careful what you wish for.

“If they go too much more on interest rates, depending what happens with the economy … it gets into the danger territory,” Tepper said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday.
His comments come after the central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter point Wednesday, the first cut this year, while signaling two more reductions are coming this year.
Tepper feared that if the Fed cuts rates while inflation hasn’t been fully tamed, demand can pick up faster than supply, reigniting price pressures. Meanwhile, too-easy monetary policy could potentially create asset bubbles as investors keep flocking into riskier corners of the markets.
“My view has been that one easing or two easings or even three easings don’t matter because we’re still in a little restrictive territory with a little bit too high inflation, even without the tariff induced inflation. So they should be a little bit restrictive,” Tepper said. “Beyond that, you’re really risking a lot of things, a weaker dollar, more inflation and those sort of things.”
The founder and president of Appaloosa Management noted valuations are high, but he wouldn’t bet against stocks yet while the Fed is still in easing mode.

“I don’t love the multiples, but how do I not own it?” Tepper said. “I’m not ever fighting this Fed especially when the markets tell me… one and three quarter more cuts before the end of the year, so that’s a tough thing not to own.”
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates. Continue reading →