Summary Strong Q3 earnings from major banks and robust consumer data support continued S&P 500 gains, despite trade tensions and … Continue reading →

Global copper mine output is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2025 to 23.4 million tons, up from 22.9 million … Continue reading →

What’s going to stop the gold and silver market? A few things. First, that extremely overbought condition that has persisted since August. We’ve never seen one that has lasted as long as this one. Second, that stock markets took a tumble on Friday… Continue reading →

Previously, I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Here is how that looks on a chart (from longtermtrends.net):

The S&P 500 is in red, the Dow in blue, and gold and silver in their native colours. The stock market has significantly outperformed precious metals, with silver being the worst performer.

Today, if silver had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at $358.38 [(47049/78.78)*.6]. Yet, it only topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011 and has recently surpassed that all-time high.

In October 1973 (is this a coincidence?), silver was in a similar type of position when it finally surpassed its all-time high (set in 1864). The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If silver had scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of $8.128, yet it only reached the 1864 peak of $2.94 at that time.

This is how silver measured against the Dow, S&P 500, and silver at that time (October 1973):

So, much like today, the stock market had significantly outperformed precious metals, with silver being the worst performer.

However, this is how it looked about 5 months later when silver more than doubled in value (charts generated at longtermtrends.net):

Silver made up significant ground and surpassed gold during that time. There is a high probability that silver will perform in a similar manner and even better over the coming months.

Of course, silver eventually surpassed both the Dow and S&P 500 before the end of that bull market. It also eventually topped the Dow’s performance as of October 1973. A similar feat would mean silver surpassing the $358 level in this bull market.

A possible path to the $358 is shown on one of the many charts that I track on my silver and gold premium blog:

More information on the chart can be found here.

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman Continue reading →

U.S. stocks looked set to rebound after President Donald Trump softened his tone on China, reassuring investors after his renewed tariff threats on Friday sent the market tumbling.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 445 points, or 1%. S&P 500 futures jumped 1.3%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9%.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 11 basis points to 4.04%. Gold futures jumped 2.3% to $4,093 an ounce, hitting yet another record, and the dollar climbed 0.1% against a weighted basket of its peers. Continue reading →

A global silver shortage is spreading from the UK to Canada and Asia, as dealers run out of coins and … Continue reading →

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he continues to support lowering interest rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.
“I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go,” he said in a CNBC interview.
The monetary policy comments came shortly after a CNBC report that Waller is one of five finalists to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he continues to support lowering interest rates but said the central bank needs to be careful amid conflicting economic signals.
“I’m still in the belief we need to cut rates, but we need to kind of be cautious about it,” Waller said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

On one hand, he said, the U.S. labor market appears to be losing jobs, potentially signaling a broader economic slowdown. On the other, gross domestic product growth remains strong and there remain concerns over inflation, which is still running considerably higher than the Fed’s 2% goal.
“Something’s got to give. Either the labor market rebounds to match the GDP growth, or that GDP growth is going to pull back. So whichever way that goes, it’s got to affect what you do with policy,” Waller said. “I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go.”
At its September meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved its first quarter percentage point reduction since December 2024. In addition, committee members signaled in their quarterly “dot plot” update of individual members’ expectations that two more cuts were likely before the end of the year.
Waller said he’s comfortable with that pace but doesn’t think the Fed should move faster than that. His new colleague, Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by President Donald Trump, pushed for a bigger half-point reduction and wants to see the Fed lop another 1.25 percentage points off the federal funds rate by the end of the year.
“You can always adjust as you go as the data comes in,” Waller said. “I mean, if you went 75 [basis points] tomorrow, then you have a bit of a problem.”

The monetary policy comments came shortly after a CNBC report that Waller is one of five finalists to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026. Waller recently interviewed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who in turn is sending a list to Trump of the best candidates to lead the central bank.
As part of the process, Waller sat down for what were reportedly lengthy interviews as Trump looks for a central bank more in his liking for lower interest rates. However, Waller said the discussion with Bessent focused squarely on policy.
“It was actually a great interview. I mean, it was a lot of discussion about various aspects of the Fed, talking about various speeches I’ve given my points of view,” Waller said. “I just thought it was great. I mean, really there was nothing political about it. It was all serious economic discussion.”
Waller’s cautious views on policy extend to the economy.
On the labor market, he said the past few months probably saw a loss of jobs. On inflation, he said he continues to think the impact from Trump’s tariffs will be temporary. Continue reading →