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Some of you are too young to remember the last time the silver futures were above $48. And some of you remember it too well. But this morning, the futures broke the $48 level again for just the third time in history, and are currently trading at $48.27.

Even more stunning is that this is happening just a day after a selloff where the futures dropped more than two dollars from peak to trough, from a high of $47.99 to a low of $45.71, before then shooting back higher again in the latest leg of today’s rally that began late Thursday night.

Today’s move now leaves the silver price $2.64 higher than yesterday’s low.

As we’ve discussed quite frequently in the past few months, this is the kind of volatility you can expect when you have conditions like what former JP Morgan precious metals managing director Robert Gottlieb mentioned on Wednesday.

Until that tightness is resolved, there’s a good chance we’re going to have more of the volatility we’ve been experiencing.

We talked about the surge in Indian gold and silver imports earlier this week, as well as how the SLV borrow rates have risen, and also how the silver lease rates have spiked. However, what changed since Robert wrote that on Wednesday, is that now the London spot price is trading above the Comex front-month futures contract.

In terms of what that means when the London spot price is trading over Comex, I was actually just finishing some edits for the upcoming second edition of our book The Big Silver Short, which includes a new bonus chapter with Vince Lanci of Goldfix, where he actually talked about exactly that:

It’s also interesting to see this happening at this particular time. Because after large amounts of gold and silver came from London to New York earlier this year, now the LBMA’s free float inventory is getting into dangerously low territory, and people are beginning to wonder if some of the metal could return back to London. And if the London spot price were to rise enough to overcome shipping and potential tariff risk, this is at least one of the first steps that would have to be in place for something like that to happen.

In one of Robert’s other recent comments he also mentioned how the banks are taking less risk, which is just making the market even more illiquid.

This last comment is somewhat reminiscent of the LBMA’s 2021 silver report, where they talked about what happened during the EFP crisis of 2020 following the onset of COVID.

Just in case anyone has ever wanted confirmation that the amount of contracts the banks write influences the price, the LBMA just laid it out about as clearly as one possibly could right there. ‘The banks’ risk departments continued to limit the ability of their trading desks to issue contracts,’ which ‘kept futures prices higher for longer.’

So there’s tightness in the metals, and then add on that the U.S. apparently just gave Ukraine intelligence on long-range energy targets in Russia, and is weighing whether to send the missiles that could be used to attack them.

So between the mix of the conditions in the underlying metals markets, the Fed cutting interest rates, the world realizing that we’re getting closer to Trump naming a new Fed chairman who’s going to cut rates even faster, and the current geopolitical conditions of the world, the gold and silver prices are ringing the alarm bell.

In some ways, the current silver run-up is somewhat eerily reminiscent of the spike to $49 back in 2011 following Ben Bernanke’s QE2 programs.

Silver had just crossed over the $48 level (and then $49) late in the last week of April, and you’re probably already well aware by now that when the markets opened back up that Sunday night, the same night that the government reported that Osama Bin Laden had been killed, the silver price fell $7, and was back in the $30s within a week.

Hopefully for silver investors, this time we’ll have a different outcome. And I think that’s likely, especially because of the London silver tightness, which is the key element that wasn’t there in 2011.

You could also say that we already did get a 2011-like move down back in April when the silver futures went from just over $35 at the time the reciprocal tariff announcement was made, to under $29 just a few days later.

Ultimately, it’s going to be truly stunning to watch how this unfolds, as we’re seeing history in the making. And it will also be fascinating to see if the London spot price does eventually rise high enough to start bringing metal back from the Comex, and whether that Comex metal is actually available, and at what price. Continue reading →

Shutdowns. Rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions. Domestic political tensions. Economy tensions. It all adds up for gold that keeps setting records. Oh yes, the shutdown. It even impacts gold as this week’s COT report is cancelled because the CRTC is a federal agency. China is on holidays where normally there is a lot of gold demand, but who cares. As a result, gold rises for the seventh week in a row. December futures went over $3,900. And, as we see in the chart above, we closed at $3,883.65. Coming soon – $4,000. Overbought? You bet. But so far, the market doesn’t care.  

Just like the stock market, the gold market keeps setting records. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is now only 19 away from its all-time 2011 high. Similarly, silver is roughly only $2 away from its 1980 and 2011 high. As a reminder, though, those are nominal levels. On inflation-adjusted levels, we have a way to go. Silver needs to reach nearly $200. The HUI 920. The TSX Gold Index (TGD)? We’ve surpassed it already. Ditto for gold.

On the week, gold rose 3.1% to all-time highs, silver was up 3.8% to 52-week highs, and platinum rose 2% to 52-week highs. Palladium struggles, falling 1.9%, while copper, thanks to the Freeport McMoran mine disaster and mine issues in Chile sparking supply disruptions, jumped 6.8%. My colleague Mike Ballanger who follows copper closely believes it’s on the verge of going parabolic. Billionaire financier Robert Friedland CEO of Ivanhoe Mines is saying the same thing. Copper is needed in just about everything.

Not to be outdone, the miners also rose with the HUI, up 2.6% to new 52-week highs, and the TGD gained 2.5% to new all-time highs once again. It’s been a golden year. The HUI is up 125% in 2025 while the TGD has gained 120%. Some individual stocks even more. Better still, the moribund junior miner developers are also coming to life. With junior developers one can have a life-changing moment as they gain doubles, triples, and even 10- baggers. Yet the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) that is at least 50% miners is still below its 2021 high, let alone its 2008 high. On the TSX, Gold (TGD), Metals & Mining (TGM) and Materials (TMT) continue to make new highs.

The question is, is it still safe to buy? As long as we continue to have tensions and uncertainty, gold is where one should be. Yes, overbought and corrections, even sharp ones can occur, but overall, we continue to look higher. This past week we had a sudden downdraft on Thursday, but by Friday it was all recovered. We note Thursday’s low at $3,820. If that breaks, we are probably headed for a little deeper correction. Overall, we aren’t in a deeper correction until we are under $3,700. A test of the 200-day MA can never be ruled out. Currently, that is near $3,500.

Yes, the stock market has been relentlessly climbing. But it’s heavily concentrated in the MAG7 and the FAANGs. If they falter, the market could be in trouble. Overvaluation in the stock market is a concern, but not in the gold market. Just keep up the tensions. And for that we see no sign they are going to abate any time soon. Gold stocks are still undervalued. Gold has no liability. Gold is indestructible. All the gold ever produced is still with us. Paper (i.e., stocks, bonds, even your house, and oh yes, Bitcoin)? It can be gone in a nano second.

Elsewhere, currencies were once again relatively flat with the US$ Index down 0.5%. The other currencies were mostly up with the Japanese yen up 1.4%. Oil continues to be in the doldrums (there is too much of it) with WTI oil down 7%, Brent crude off 7.5%, but natural gas (NG) rising 4.7%. Except that over at the EU Dutch Hub NG fell 2.8%. The ARCA Oil & Gas Index (XOI) was off 4.3% while the TSX Energy Index (TEN) fell 2.7%. Overall, the stocks have been performing better than the commodity. That may be a sign of accumulation for the sector. War drums keep beating in Europe. Not a good sign.                      

We’re looking for a gold correction. We have expectations of a low in the November/December period. What could cause it? An uptick in inflation and interest rates, resolution of the shutdown, or war drums dying down? Or more. But still no sign yet of a top. Watch $3,800 for clues.                                                                  Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Falling Records, Shutdown Blindness, Precious Shine

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

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