Category Archives: Silver

Heightened stock market volatility at the hands of blistering tariff headlines continues to drive one important discussion among investors. Have … Continue reading →

Gold:silver ratio hits 105, but analysts are not giving up on the ‘little’ sibling | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

Photo: Spencer Platt (Getty Images) U.S. stocks rebounded Tuesday after a brutal start to the week, even as investors remain rattled … Continue reading →

Here’s our scorecard. We’ve changed the date from November 5, 2024, the date of the election, to January 20, 2025, the date of the inauguration and official start of the Trump presidency. The only other change we’ve made is to add the Euro Stoxx 50 ETF to represent the EU market. Not surprisingly, gold remains the best performer since January 20, up 23.2%. Next is the Euro Stoxx ETF, up 6.9% and rising. This is the one that may be reflecting the flight of capital from the U.S. to Europe. For bonds, as represented by the iShares 20-year treasury bond, the gain is a small 1.4% so far. All others are down: S&P 500 down 11.9%, the US$ Index down 9.1%, WTI oil off 16.4%, the MSCI Momentum Stocks down 9.9%, and the best-performing one iShares Emerging Markets down 0.4%. For the record, the TSX is down 3.5%, highlighting Canada’s outperformance.

Gold

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The prime beneficiary of the current market chaos has been gold. Or, as we say, gold is protection against geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and loss of faith in government. It is also protection against currency devaluation. Right now, we have all four in play. Inflation/deflation are merely side issues as both are contributors to economic uncertainty. From that standpoint, it is no surprise that gold is up 26% in 2025, consistently making new all-time highs. Not only has gold regularly been making nominal new all-time highs, but it is now equaling the inflation-adjusted high of January 1980. That high is now at $3,395 with the high this past week at $3,356.

On the week, gold gained 2.9%. However, our big bugaboo is the gross underperformance of silver. Usually in both bull and bear markets silver leads. This past week silver gained only 1.0% and is up 11.2% in 2025, badly lagging gold. There are a number of reasons for this, but one appears to be suppression in order to keep silver prices lower, given its extensive use as an industrial metal with the monetary aspects pushed aside. The gold stocks remain ultra-cheap with gold/HUI ratio last at 8.3. The all-time high was 10.9. It needs to first break under 8, then under 6.5 to suggest to us that we are breaking down and gold stocks would outpace gold itself. The all-time low was 1.55 made way back in 2004.

Nonetheless, the gold stocks have done well in 2025. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) gained 2.4% and is up 45.0% in 2025 as it made new 52-week highs. The TSX Gold Index (TGD) has been even better, up 1.7% this past week and up 45.7% in 2025 to record highs, taking out the high of 2011 on a nominal basis. Inflation-wise, the TGD still has a way to go, needing to exceed 625 vs. the current high of 497.

For the record, this past week platinum was up 2.8% but only 5.9% on the year, a distinct laggard. Near precious metals are palladium, up 5.8% this past week, and copper, up 4.0%. Copper made all-time highs earlier and remains a key metal going forward in 2025. Copper is up 16.6% in 2025. A quick mention of energy: WTI oil rose this week by 4.8% but it remains well shy of breaking out above $72. Brent crude was up 4.5%. Both remain in bear markets and down on the year. Natural gas (NG) at the Henry Hub was down 8.5%, but EU NG at the Dutch Hub gained 5.2%. Energy stocks benefitted as the ARCA Oil & Gas Index (XOI) was up 3.1% and the TSX Energy Index (TEN) gained 5.2%. Both, however, remain down on the year.

Is gold entering a runaway move to the upside? It is possible. We’ve achieved next targets at $3,350, but are higher highs coming? We are a bit overbought, but that condition can remain in a strong bull market. Next targets could go up to $3,600, which is our current target. Many are predicting even higher. Breakdown right now would not occur until under $3,000. For the gold stocks, concern rises if the TGD falls under 450 but breaks down under 400. Otherwise, we are in a potentially powerful bull that hasn’t been seen since the 1979 run-up. Even the run-up in 2011 was not as frenetic as this one. But the background favourable to gold is here in spades.

At this stage we are not even sure what might end it. The U.S. backing off on tariffs would end it. Resolution of wars, particularly the Russia/Ukraine war, would help. And the end of confrontations due to extreme polarization in the U.S. and elsewhere would also help end it. The trouble is, we don’t see any of that happening at this time. We live in chaotic, volatile times and, as we noted, the world of 2024 is over. Gold is the beneficiary.
Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: China Ace, Overbought Gold, Capital Flight

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

Gold is in a clearly powerful bull market, and now is the time to trade with the trend and let … Continue reading →

Donald Trump appointed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve chairman in 2018, but now seeks to remove him – Kevin … Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Gold rallied to a record as a fresh bout of US dollar weakness, criticism of the Federal Reserve … Continue reading →

The price of gold keeps rising this year. Doug Armand/Getty Images Gold hit a new high Wednesday after Federal Reserve … Continue reading →

Gold (GC=F) prices hit a record high this week as the precious metal’s year-to-date gains top 25%. And Wall Street … Continue reading →

The official numbers are in, and industrial demand for silver set a fourth consecutive record in 2024.

Despite record industrial offtake, total silver demand declined by 3 percent to 1.16 billion ounces last year, primarily due to weak investment demand, according to the World Silver Survey 2025 published by the Silver Institute.  

Even with the slight decline, demand outstripped the silver supply for the fourth consecutive year. The structural market deficit came in at 148.9 million ounces. That drove the four-year market shortfall to 678 million ounces, the equivalent of 10 months of mining supply in 2024.

The silver price remained well below its all-time high throughout 2024, creating the impression that it underperformed. However, it had a pretty solid year. 

The White Metal kicked off 2024 at $23.99 per ounce and closed out the year at $28.91, a 20.5 percent gain.

Industrial Silver Demand Drives Higher

Industrial demand for silver hit 680.5 million ounces last year. According to the Silver Institute, record electronics and electrical demand underpinned the growth.

“This reflected structural gains in the green economy flowing through from the PV and automotive sectors and grid infrastructure development. Demand also received a boost from AI-related applications.” 

China accounted for the largest share of industrial gains with a 7 percent increase. There was also strong industrial demand in India, with offtake increasing by 4 percent.

Demand in the West was more tepid. U.S. industrial silver demand dropped by 6 percent last year, and most European countries also reported modest declines.

Demand for silver in solar panels accounted for nearly half of the total silver demand in the electronics sector.

Silver is the best conductor of electricity of all metals at room temperature. That makes it a vital input in the production of solar panels. With demand for solar power increasing along with the amount of silver used in each panel, analysts believe that solar panel production will consume increasingly large amounts of silver in the future. 

According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20 percent of the current annual silver supply by 2027.

By 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98 percent of the current global silver reserves.

The green energy sector is also essentially recession-proof because it is being driven, incentivized, and in some cases directly funded by governments around the world.

Silver Jewelry Demand Grows as Investment Remains Tepid

Silver jewelry demand grew by 3 percent to 208.7 ounces in 2024.

According to the Silver Institute, India accounted for the bulk of these gains, driven by an import duty cut, a healthy rural economy, and the ongoing rise in purities.

The Silver Institute reported that improving exports to key Western countries also lifted silver jewelry demand. For instance, fabrication in Thailand grew by 13 percent.

“Western consumption was broadly steady, as positives, such as branded silver’s gains, balanced negatives, including cost-of-living issues.”

By contrast, China reported a third consecutive year of losses due to its challenging economic backdrop. 

Silverware demand fell by 2 percent to a 3-year low of 54.2 million ounces. This was primarily due to soft demand in India, where rising prices put a strain on the gifting segment.

The biggest drag on silver demand was in the investment sector. Coin and net bar demand plunged by 22 percent to a 5-year low of 190.9 million ounces.

Western markets reported the biggest sag in demand, with double-digit declines across the board. The steepest drop was in the U.S., where silver investment demand crashed by 46 percent. According to the Silver Institute, profit-taking at higher prices, market saturation, and optimism about a Trump presidency created headwinds for silver in the U.S.

India was the bright spot for silver investment, with demand growing by 21 percent. Bullish price expectations and the import duty cut buoyed the market.

Silver Supply

Silver mine output was steady, rising by 0.9 percent to 819.7 ounces.

Lead and zinc mines continued to produce the most silver globally, however, output was flat year on year. In contrast, silver production from gold mines recorded the strongest growth, up 12 percent to 13.9 million ounces, a three-year high.

Mexico ranked as the top silver-producing country, followed by China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile.

With the silver price rising, recycling rose 6 percent, hitting a 12-year high of 193.9 million ounces. Continue reading →

Silver industrial demand rose 4 percent in 2024 to 680.5 million ounces (Moz), reaching a new record high for the fourth consecutive year. Demand continued to benefit from structural gains linked to the green economy, including investment in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification, and photovoltaic (PV) applications. Demand was further boosted by end-uses related to artificial intelligence (AI), which drove growth in consumer electronics shipments.

Overall, global silver demand exceeded silver supply for the fourth consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 148.9 Moz in 2024. Notably, during 2021-2024, the combined deficit reached 678 Moz, equivalent to 10 months of global mine supply in 2024.

These and other key aspects of the 2024 silver market are examined in the World Silver Survey 2025, released today by the Silver Institute. The 88-page Survey also provides an outlook for the silver market in 2025. The Survey was researched and produced for the Silver Institute by Metals Focus, the London-based independent, precious metals consultancy.

Key findings include:

Silver Demand

Total silver demand fell by 3 percent to 1.16 billion ounces (Boz) in 2024. The decline was primarily driven by weakness in physical investment and slightly lower silverware and photographic demand. The drop was partially offset by the continued strength of industrial demand, which enjoyed another record year. In keeping with 2023, growth was underpinned by record electronics & electrical demand. This reflected structural gains in the green economy flowing through from the PV and automotive sectors and grid infrastructure development. Demand also received a boost from AI-related applications. While thrifting and substitution remained limited across most sectors, notable advancements within the PV segment led to a sharp reduction in silver loadings.

On a regional breakdown, China accounted for the largest share of industrial gains, with a 7 percent rise, while India recorded a 4 percent increase. In contrast, Europe saw weaker demand across most countries in the region (except for one-off gains in the UK), while US demand declined by 6 percent in 2024.

Demand for brazing alloys rose by 3 percent, supported by growth in key industries, such as automotive and aerospace. Meanwhile, demand in the ‘other industrial’ category rose by 4 percent, despite a slight drop in ethylene oxide (EO) demand.

Silver jewelry fabrication grew by 3 percent to 208.7 Moz. India accounted for the bulk of these gains, thanks to such factors as the import duty cut, a healthy rural economy, and the ongoing rise in purities. Improving exports to key Western countries also lifted fabrication in Thailand by 13 percent. Western consumption was broadly steady as positives, such as branded silver’s gains, balanced negatives including cost-of-living issues. By contrast, China saw a third consecutive year of losses amid a challenging economic backdrop.

Silverware demand declined by 2 percent to a three-year low of 54.2 Moz. The drop was driven by softer demand in India, where elevated prices weighed on the gifting segment.

Coin and net bar demand fell 22 percent in 2024 to a five-year low of 190.9 Moz, led by double-digit declines across all major Western markets. The steepest drop was seen in the US (-46%), due to profit-taking at higher prices, market saturation, and investors’ reaction to Trump’s election. In Germany, the lingering effects of the 2023 VAT hike on certain silver products continued to weigh on demand. In contrast, India stood out with a 21 percent surge, thanks to bullish price expectations and the import duty cut.

Silver Supply

Global silver mine production rose by 0.9 percent to 819.7 Moz, underpinned by increased output from lead/zinc mines in Australia and the recovery of supply from Mexico, as Newmont’s Peñasquito mine returned to full production. This was supplemented by additional growth from Bolivia and the US. Lower output from Chile, down 8.8 Moz y/y, partially offset this growth. 

Silver production from lead/zinc mines remained the dominant source of silver, but output was flat y/y. In contrast, silver production from gold mines recorded the strongest growth, up 12% y/y to 13.9 Moz, a three-year high.

Last year, Mexico remained the leading silver mine-producing country, followed by China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile.

Recycling rose 6 percent in 2024, reaching a 12-year high of 193.9 Moz. Industrial scrap saw the most significant increase in weight terms, mainly led by the processing of spent EO catalysts. In percentage terms, the highest gain came from silverware recycling, which climbed by 11 percent as firmer silver prices and cost-of-living issues encouraged selling in Western markets.

Outlook for Silver in 2025

Total demand this year is forecast to fall marginally to 1.15 Boz. Following a series of all-time records in recent years, industrial fabrication will remain flat in 2025, as the gains in silver’s use in PV offtake ease. Both jewelry and silverware are expected to weaken, but a modest recovery in coin and bar demand in some Western markets should largely mitigate losses.

Total silver supply is projected to increase by 1.5 percent, led by higher mine production. As a result, the silver market is anticipated to remain in a deficit, but this gap will be a four-year low of 117.6 Moz.

As outlined in World Silver Survey 2025, the impact of US tariffs will be a key risk to silver demand this year. An extended period of elevated tariffs, or a further escalation of global trade wars, could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and sharply lower global GDP growth. These will weigh on industrial, jewelry, and silverware demand, though physical investment could benefit from rising safe-haven purchases.

Silver Price

The average silver price jumped by 21 percent in 2024. The start of 2025 saw further gains, with silver exceeding $34 by mid-March amid rising uncertainties surrounding US trade and foreign policy. Thereafter, the silver price has weakened, following the US tariff announcements. Even so, as of April 7, the silver price was still up four percent for this year-to-date.

About the World Silver Survey and Ordering Information

The Silver Institute has published this annual report on the global silver market since 1990 to bring reliable supply and demand statistics to market participants and the public. Metals Focus independently researched and produced the 35th edition of World Silver Survey. The report was sponsored by 22 companies from North and South America, Asia, and Europe.

A complimentary PDF version of World Silver Survey 2025 can be downloaded from the Institute’s website at www.silverinstitute.org. In North America, hard copies may be purchased from the Institute’s website; for copies outside North America, please contact Metals Focus at www.metalsfocus.com. In addition, members of the media and government officials can request complimentary hard copies of the Survey directly from the Silver Institute.

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