Jason Laurie, Business Development Manager for Dillon Gage Metals, argues that a $4,000 spot price is “a serious scenario with a 70 percent probability,” placing the timeline around mid-to-late 2026 and potentially sooner if geopolitical shocks accelerate the trend. His conviction rests on structural deficits, soaring global debt-to-GDP, and the steady de-dollarization that is pushing investors toward physical bullion as a pillar of wealth protection.
The Macro Catalysts to Watch
Laurie lists a convergence of systemic forces rather than a single lightning-bolt event:
- A Fed pivot toward easier policy if growth falters or debt stress rises.
- Persistent inflation or stagflation eroding confidence in fiat purchasing power.
- A weakening U.S. dollar driven by ballooning deficits and foreign treasury divestment.
- Continued central-bank buying, especially from BRICS and emerging-market nations.
- Geopolitical dislocation—armed conflict, trade wars, or the weaponization of financial systems.
Signals of Acceleration and of a Potential Stall
The clearest tailwind is the breakdown in real yields: softer U.S. data plus dovish rate expectations have already driven gold beyond $3,200. Add a 10 percent year-to-date slide in the dollar index and a surge in Asian central-bank purchases, and momentum can carry quickly through the $3,400–$3,500 levels toward $4,000. On the flip side, an unexpected hawkish Fed turn or a sharp dollar rebound could pause the rally, though Laurie stresses that long-term allocators aren’t trading headlines.
Smart Ways to Position Today
For believers who blanch at today’s lofty prices, Laurie recommends a multi-pronged physical strategy:
- Dollar-cost average into sovereign coins or LBMA-accredited bars.
- Prioritize insured, allocated storage with geographic diversification (e.g., International Depository Services).
- Use a real-time execution platform such as FizTrade to capture dips and maintain transparency.
- Favor physical over paper vehicles to avoid counter-party risk during market stress.
Bottom Line
Gold’s march toward $4,000 would reflect an overarching repricing of risk, not a speculative bubble. Investors large and small are shifting capital from traditional financial instruments to tangible assets, anchoring portfolios in resilience and optionality. As Laurie puts it, “Gold is no longer a peripheral holding; it has become a core safeguard in an evolving market.”
Secure Value Whatever The Final Price
Gold does not need to reach $4,000 to merit professional care. At more than $3,000 dollars an ounce a single bar equals a midsize car and a tube of coins covers a semester of tuition. Storing that wealth in a desk drawer or an uninsured safe exposes it to fire, theft and administrative error. An insured precious metals depository removes those threats by pairing multi-layer security with full replacement coverage that tracks the spot market.
Choosing a precious metals storage facility like International Depository Services means each bar and coin is recorded under your name segregated from other holdings, reviewed by independent auditors and fully insured.
Whether gold stalls at $3500 or climbs past $4000 its role as a store of value depends on custody. Consolidate holdings in a trusted precious metals storage facility such as International Depository Services to ensure the metal you own today safeguards the purchasing power you need tomorrow.
About the Source
Jason Laurie, Business Development Manager, North America for Dillon Gage Metals
