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Since launching this newsletter last fall, I’ve been consistently bullish on silver, publishing numerous reports outlining the exceptionally strong case for it. While gold soared over the past year, silver lagged behind, repeatedly held back by two major resistance zones — $32 to $33 and $34 to $35 — which stopped multiple breakout attempts and kept it in a prolonged consolidation phase.

That finally changed a month ago when silver decisively broke through these critical levels. Although it paused in recent weeks, I explained this was simply a healthy consolidation before the next big surge. On Friday, that surge finally arrived, marking a true breakout and the official start of silver’s bull market. In this update, I’ll discuss where silver stands now and share what I expect to happen next.

The chart below shows COMEX silver futures, which I follow closely because they tend to respect key $1 increments, often creating clear support and resistance levels. Over the past month, silver has finally broken through the heavy resistance cluster between $32 and $35, a major technical victory underscored by Friday’s powerful 4.42% surge on strong volume that pushed prices right to the doorstep of $39 an ounce. This is a highly positive development signaling that silver’s bull market is just getting underway. With this strong momentum, silver is likely to make a rapid run at $40 next — and then $50 soon after.

In addition to tracking COMEX silver futures, I also closely monitor silver priced in euros. This helps strip out the influence of U.S. dollar fluctuations and often provides a clearer view of the underlying trend. Euro-denominated silver also tends to respect key €1 increments—such as €30, €31, and €32—which often act as support and resistance levels.

Similar to COMEX silver futures, silver priced in euros had struggled with two major resistance zones — €29–€30 and €31–€32. As of Friday, however, it finally surged decisively through both levels, providing strong bullish confirmation and removing one of the last conditions I was waiting for to fully validate that silver’s bull market has truly begun.

I’ve also developed a proprietary indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), designed to help validate silver’s price action and filter out potential false breakouts. The SSPI is calculated as the average of gold and copper prices, with copper scaled by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from dominating the index. Interestingly, even though silver isn’t part of the calculation, the SSPI closely tracks its movements. To learn more, check out the article I published on it a few weeks ago.

The SSPI finally broke out of its 2,800–3,000 trading range over the past couple of weeks, after being stuck there since March — a promising sign that foreshadowed the silver breakout I had been anticipating. Copper’s surge and breakout on Tuesday gave the SSPI a major boost and likely played a key role in silver’s move on Friday, as strong performances in both gold and copper often put pressure on arbitrage algorithms to buy silver in sympathy. This breakout in the SSPI was one of the crucial confirmations I had been waiting for, along with a breakout in silver priced in euros.

As the copper futures chart below shows, copper has finally broken above the $5 to $5.20 resistance zone that had held firm for several years. This decisive breakout confirms that copper is now officially in a bull market of its own, as I wrote a few days ago — and this new bull market should also serve as a strong tailwind for silver.

Although gold has been relatively quiet since mid-April, it has simply been undergoing a healthy consolidation between the $3,200 support and $3,500 resistance levels, working off its overbought condition after strong gains earlier in the spring.

This pattern is very similar to last summer’s consolidation, which was followed by a sharp rally once fall began and trading volume returned (learn more). I’m now closely watching for a breakout above the $3,500 resistance, which would signal that gold is ready to resume its bull market. Such a breakout would also give silver an additional boost.

One factor fueling silver’s bull market is the weakening U.S. dollar, which recently broke below the key 100 level on the U.S. Dollar Index — a major technical breakdown. This breakdown indicates further weakness ahead, which is bullish for commodities — including precious metals — given their long-standing inverse relationship with the dollar. For a deeper dive into the bearish case for the dollar and the significance of this technical breakdown, check out my recent article.

I also want to revisit gold briefly to highlight how, from 2020 to 2024, it was capped below the $2,000 to $2,100 resistance zone. This ceiling kept gold subdued for years until it finally broke out, igniting the powerful bull market it remains in today. I see strong parallels between gold’s struggle then and silver’s recent battle under the $32 to $35 resistance cluster. Now that silver has decisively broken out, there is a very strong chance it will follow in gold’s footsteps — and it’s even likely to outperform gold for the near future.

Now let’s take a look at silver’s long-term monthly chart to identify past resistance clusters that are likely to serve as price targets during this new bull run. These resistance zones were formed during periods of price congestion, most notably during silver’s surge and peak in 2011 and 2012. The two most prominent levels that stand out to me are the $42–$44 zone and, ultimately, the $48–$50 zone. There is a strong probability that silver will aim for the most obvious target — $50 — during this rally. And while it will likely pause to consolidate once it gets there, there’s no reason it has to stop at that level.

What first signaled to me back in April 2024 that silver was on the verge of a powerful bull market was its breakout from a two-decade-long triangle pattern — a development I highlighted in my bullish thesis published in a widely read ZeroHedge article at the time:

Even more exciting is the fact that silver’s logarithmic chart, dating back to the 1960s, reveals a cup-and-handle pattern, indicating the potential for silver to reach several hundred dollars per ounce during this bull market. In order to confirm this particular scenario, silver needs to close decisively above the $50 resistance level.

Despite silver’s recent strong performance, it still has substantial upside potential. Several valuation metrics — including the long-term gold-to-silver ratio — indicate that silver remains significantly undervalued.

The current gold-to-silver ratio stands at 87.3, but if it were to revert to its historical average of 53 (dating back to 1915) — without any increase in gold’s price — silver would be valued at approximately $63.30 per ounce, representing a healthy 65% gain from its current price of $38.40. Naturally, as silver rises to close this gap, the ratio would decline accordingly.

Adjusting silver’s price for inflation further highlights how undervalued it is by historical standards. During the Hunt brothers-induced spike in 1980, silver reached an inflation-adjusted price of $197. In the 2011 bull market, driven by quantitative easing, it hit $71. Currently trading at just $38.40, silver has significant room to rise if it’s to catch up with these previous inflation-adjusted peaks.

Another way to assess whether silver is undervalued or overvalued is by comparing it to various money supply measures. The chart below shows the ratio of silver’s price to the U.S. M2 money supply, providing insight into whether silver is keeping pace with, outpacing, or lagging behind money supply growth.

If silver’s price significantly outpaces money supply growth, the likelihood of a strong correction increases. Conversely, if silver lags behind money supply growth, it suggests a potential period of strength ahead. Since the mid-2010s, silver has slightly lagged behind M2 growth, which, combined with other factors discussed in this piece, positions it for a strong rally.

One of the key factors keeping silver’s price suppressed over the past year, even as gold surged, has been the heavy short-selling of COMEX silver futures by swap dealers—primarily the trading desks of bullion banks such as JPMorgan and UBS. This was a deliberate effort to cap silver’s price (read my detailed report to learn more about this kind of manipulation). In the process, they amassed a massive net short position of 52,324 futures contracts, equivalent to 262 million ounces of silver—nearly one-third of the annual global silver production. This staggering figure highlights the immense downward pressure exerted on the silver market.

What’s even more astonishing is how much of this short position in silver futures is naked, meaning it isn’t backed by physical silver. It’s merely “paper” silver being dumped onto the market to suppress prices. However, as silver’s bull market heats up, it could trigger a wave of short-covering—when traders who bet against an asset through short-selling are forced to buy it back as prices rise to limit their losses. As the price climbs, these traders become increasingly desperate to close their positions, further fueling the rally.

If the buying pressure is intense enough, it could even lead to a short squeeze, dramatically amplifying silver’s upward momentum. Given the size of their short position, bullion banks stand to lose approximately $262 million for every $1 increase in the price of silver—a setup for a major price surge. Now, just imagine what will happen as silver climbs by $5, $10, $20, and beyond from this point.

The risk of an explosive silver short squeeze is further amplified by the astonishing ratio of 375 ounces of “paper” silver—ETFs, futures, and other derivatives—for every single ounce of physical silver. In a violent short squeeze, holders of “paper” silver could be forced to scramble for the extremely scarce physical silver to fulfill their contractual obligations.

This would cause the price of “paper” silver products to collapse, while physical silver prices would skyrocket to jaw-dropping levels, potentially reaching several hundred dollars per ounce (this event is what may fulfill the price target implied by the cup and handle pattern I showed earlier).

One key reason I believe silver will soon break free comes down to basic Economics 101: supply and demand. Over the past five years, silver demand has consistently exceeded supply, resulting in a persistent deficit—as shown in the chart below. In 2024 alone, the shortfall reached 182 million ounces, with an estimated additional 117.6 million ounces this year—and deficits are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

As a result, above-ground silver stocks are dwindling rapidly. While bullion banks can create unlimited amounts of paper silver to suppress prices, they can’t manufacture the real physical silver that is crucial for a wide range of industries, alongside growing investment demand.

The persistent silver deficit stems from both dwindling supply and surging demand—a combination that, in an unmanipulated market, would naturally drive prices higher. That’s why I described silver as a beach ball held underwater over the past year — the pressure kept building, and it was only a matter of time before it burst upward.

On the supply side, global silver mine production has peaked and declined over the past decade as economically viable deposits become depleted—something the bullion banks have absolutely no control over. And as time goes on, this supply crunch is only likely to worsen.

At the same time, demand for physical silver has skyrocketed across multiple sectors, with the biggest driver being the surge in solar panel manufacturing. As the world shifts away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy, this trend is only in its early stages. Silver demand for photovoltaic (solar panel) applications alone has nearly tripled over the past four years, increasing by an astonishing 143.1 million ounces. With global efforts to expand clean energy accelerating, this demand is set to grow even further.

In addition to the most obvious and straightforward approach — owning physical silver bullion — I also look to silver mining stocks for their amplified upside potential, especially as someone with a higher-than-average risk tolerance. These stocks are leveraged to the price of silver and tend to move more dramatically—both up and down—so they’re not for the faint of heart. While riskier than holding bullion, they can offer explosive returns as silver truly takes off.

I use the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) as a useful proxy to track the performance of silver mining stocks. SIL broke out of a long-term triangle pattern a few months ago, which is a bullish development. However, a decisive close above the key $48–$52 resistance zone is still needed to fully confirm that the bull market in silver mining stocks is truly underway — and we’re getting very close.

Junior silver mining stocks, as measured by the SILJ ETF, are finally perking up but remain confined within a long-term triangle pattern that dates back to 2013. Once this pattern decisively breaks to the upside, I believe silver mining stocks—especially the juniors—are poised to surge in a truly spectacular fashion. Check out my recent report on my favorite junior silver mining stock, Apollo Silver, which also includes a detailed breakdown of the broader bullish case for silver mining stocks.

To summarize: the moment I — and many loyal readers of this newsletter — have been waiting for is finally here. Silver’s bull market has officially kicked off, and all systems are go. Now, I’m looking for continued follow-through on this breakout, which is highly likely given silver’s strong momentum. Of course, it’s important that this breakout holds for my bullish tactical thesis to remain intact — but so far, the setup looks excellent, and I’m feeling very optimistic. As always, I’ll keep you updated on this exciting development as it unfolds.

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Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Tariff Hike, Fed War, Precious Highs

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold continues to tantalize us as to whether it will break higher or continue in its current corrective period. The pattern is appearing as symmetrical triangle with the potential for a five-point reversal pattern that should propel us higher. Symmetrical triangles can be both continuation patterns and topping patterns. Which one is this? We lean towards a continuation pattern but are wary of a topping pattern.

The pattern can be ambiguous and, if we were to break down under $3,250 and especially under $3,200, we could see a larger drop towards $3,000, even $2,900. New highs will help as well as new highs for silver. Last Friday, July 11, 2025 silver did jump to new 52-week highs over $38. Is silver leading? The key now going forward is that gold also jumps over $3,500 and the gold stocks indices (HUI, TGD) also make new highs.

We are in a weak period for gold (and the precious metals), but hold to the potential for a July low. However, sometimes these periods also last into August, even early September, before we see the rally into October/November. All this has put us on short-term cautious alert, but we remain long-term bullish. Note that in 2024 we also had a consolidation period that lasted into August, then we rallied into October/November before another decline into December. Silver making new highs is encouraging. Now it needs to hold it.

RSIs for both gold and silver and silver are fairly neutral here, adding to the uncertainty. The gold stocks also appear to be forming a symmetrical triangle. The TSX Gold Index (TGD) needs to break out over 520 to confirm higher. A breakdown under 480 and especially 470 spells trouble with potential downside targets to 400. The TGD is showing what may be an ascending triangle which is bullish. But we need to break to new highs to confirm that. Incidently the TSX Metals & Mining Index (TGM) made all time highs this past week. An omen for gold?

Gold was our number one pick for 2025 and, so far, it has not disappointed. Percentage-wise, gold is up in 2025, along with silver. The indices are also performing very well with the HUI up percentage-wise and the TGD also up. As well, we are seeing buying in the junior miners that primarily trade on the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX).

Other metals have been moving up as copper, platinum, palladium all made new highs this past week while copper made all-time highs. The CDNX has also been making new 52-week highs. The best part about the gold market is that, despite the new highs and the strong performance to date, we are seeing few signs of frothiness that could signal a potential top. Gold, along with silver and the precious metals, remains under-owned and under-appreciated, particularly in North America. As a friend who watches U.S. channels such as CNBC and Fox notes, they rarely ever mention gold. AI rules.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Tariff Hike, Fed War, Precious Highs

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.05%, and the Nasdaq … Continue reading →

We are creeping closer to the potential for monetary reform previously pointed out. Interestingly, the famous $50 level for silver could represent the risk area for this expected reform.

It is likely that when silver crosses the $50 barrier, we officially enter reset territory based on the similarity of the silver chart to the 1940s when the Bretton Woods agreement was formed.

Both cycles start at major gold/silver ratio bottoms (or silver peaks) in 1919 and 1979, respectively. Very early in the cycles, there were major interest rate peaks (1920 and 1981).

The Bretton Woods agreement came in 1944, a few years after the interest rate bottom and Gold/Silver ratio peak, at a time when Debt-to-GDP ratios were at all-time highs. A similar point on the current pattern will likely be the $50 level (a breakout at the red line).

There is no guarantee that we will get the same timing this time, but it is something to watch. It is very likely that such an event would be triggered or preceded by a stock market crash, though.

Remember, this part of the gold and silver bull market is like a bank run on the world’s premier banker (the US dollar banking system). At some point during this bank run, as gold and silver rise, the bank will default, and a new system will be forced upon the world.

Warm regardsHubert Moolman

For more of this kind of analysis, subscribe to my Premium Service. I also have a Silver Fractal Analysis Report that provides more insight regarding silver market.
Hubert Moolman is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . Hubert is the owner of HGM and Associates and HGM Research. Hubert’s work is regularly published in the premier gold and silver publications such as: Kitco.com, GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com, Mineweb.com, Resourceinvestor.com, Seekingalpha.com and many more.

Investment Research Services – Gold and Silver Research

HGM Research provides a world-class research service, covering the Gold and Silver markets, JSE Gold Miners, HUI and other selected markets. We offer a free newsletter as well as a premium (pay per article service) covering the above financial markets. We are known for our proprietary Fractal Chart Analysis. Our Fractal Analysis helps us to identify great investment opportunities. We would also consider requests for research, covering specific companies traded on a public listed exchange or research of specific global or local indices.

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There’s a pattern in China: companies rush into an industry, then resort to discounts to stay afloat.
“On the surface you’re dominating, but deep inside you’re paying a high price to dominate,” an economist said.
The escalation of tariffs has made Chinese manufacturers more determined to build factories overseas, “potentially generating redundant supply in the coming years,” Goldman Sachs said.

The urban skyline and cityscape in Shanghai China.
Lu Shaoji | Moment | Getty Images

BEIJING — From coffee to cars to real estate, there’s a recurring pattern in China: companies rush into an industry, then resort to discounts to stay afloat. That has economists worried.
Natixis’ study of 2,500 listed Chinese companies reinforce how volume is growing while value is being hurt by deflationary pressure, Alicia Garcia Herrero, the firm’s chief economist for Asia-Pacific, said on a webinar Friday. “You can see it sector by sector, company by company.”

“On the surface you’re dominating, but deep inside you’re paying a high price to dominate,” she said. “You don’t get the revenue needed to continue.”
A reflection of the breadth of impact, consumer prices fell by 0.1% in the first six months of the year from a year ago, while factory-gate producer prices dropped by 2.8%, official data shows. In that time, only seven of 48 producer price sub-categories rose, versus about half of the 37 consumer price components.
That fierce and often unproductive competition is described as “involution” in China. The government has picked up on the term in recent policy documents, calling for efforts to tackle the trend.
While the trend has made tech and products more affordable for the mass market, it has also underscored worries of a vicious cycle that forces businesses to cut more jobs.
“With involution, the Chinese economy feels much colder than the headline growth suggests,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a report Thursday. He pointed out that mainland China-listed “A share” companies expanded their workforces by just 1% in 2024, the slowest on record.

“From a more fundamental perspective, involution is both a feature and a bug of the ‘China model,'” he said. “Massive investment leads to price wars and poor returns for shareholders. But for policymakers, intense competition could help achieve industrial upgrading and self-reliance.” 
China’s push into electric cars has been the most apparent example, with industry giant BYD offering some discounts of nearly 30% or more this year and smartphone company Xiaomi pricing its latest SUV below that of Tesla’s Model Y.
U.S. coffee giant Starbucks has struggled in China with falling sales as it maintains prices of around 30 yuan per cup ($4.20) — while a host of rivals from Luckin Coffee to boutiques sell lattes for as low as 9.9 yuan.
Even in commercial real estate, property owners who have tried to raise prices in Beijing ended up facing higher vacancies, Rayman Zhang, managing director for North China, at property manager JLL, told reporters Thursday. He noted that there’s still insufficient demand — with little expectation for a turnaround in the near future.
China is expected Tuesday to report second-quarter gross domestic product growth of 5.2% from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll. That would be slower than the 5.4% increase in the first quarter, but in line with the national target of around 5% growth for the year.
But the second half of the year will likely reveal a far more stressful picture, warned Jianwei Xu, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis. He was also speaking at Friday’s webinar.
“We are seeing the profits especially for manufacturing companies, are still decreasing,” he said. “There could be more households under stress in [the second half of the year] because it will be more difficult to find a job.”

A different challenge

This isn’t the first time China has dealt with overcapacity, analysts pointed out, referencing excessive capacity in the state-dominated commodities sector about a decade ago. But this time, fewer state-owned companies are involved, making it more difficult for policymakers to act.
“The dominance of private firms in industries with overcapacity tends to complicate the coordination of mergers, even with government guidance,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, and a team said in a report Thursday.
“The economy is also starting from a weaker point, which necessitates more demand-side stimulus to counter the impact of supply reduction,” the report said. “However, the government’s debt level is already high (~100% of GDP), which may constrain its willingness and ability to undertake aggressive fiscal expansion.”
China’s top leaders are expected to maintain the current fiscal stimulus at a high-level Politburo meeting late this month. Beijing in March raised the country’s fiscal deficit for the year to 4% — up from 3% last year.

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Notably, Chinese President Xi Jinping on July 1 led a high-level financial and economic commission meeting that called for more governance of “low price, disorderly competition,” according to a CNBC translation of Chinese state media.
The ruling Chinese Communist Party’s official Qiushi journal on July 1 even outlined several measures that promote standardized government behavior to address involution-style competition, warning of serious economic damage. The article cited high-level government meetings from the last several months. 
“To achieve the growth target, Beijing will have no choice but to launch a major demand stimulus,” Hu said. “Afterwards, the improved domestic demand would ease the price competition among material producers and internet giants. But for manufacturers, it will be a long and painful process to absorb the existing capacity.”

Global spillover

Exacerbating problems with resolving China’s domestic overcapacity is the trade war with the U.S., Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in a July 1 report.
The U.S. and European Union became more critical of China’s persistent overcapacity issues last year. Both have raised tariffs on Chinese electric cars in particular in an attempt to protect domestic automakers. The U.S. in April also targeted China with higher duties across the board.
The escalation of tariffs has made Chinese manufacturers more determined to build factories overseas, “potentially generating redundant supply in the coming years,” the Goldman report said. The analysts estimated a 0.5% to 14% increase in capacity by the end of 2028, up from the 0.4% to 10% expansion projected a year ago.
And among seven sectors — air conditioners, solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors, steel and construction machinery — five have more capacity than the entire global demand, the Goldman analysts said. Only ACs, and EVs — just barely — enjoy some market potential.
— CNBC’s Victoria Yeo contributed to this report. Continue reading →

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Growth challenges are mounting while tariffs will lift inflation, but stagflation fears are wide of the mark. The Fed will … Continue reading →

Gold prices rise toward session highs after U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 227k | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →