All the pieces are falling into place for silver’s bull market to accelerate, with a breakout into the $40s now looking increasingly likely in the near term.I rely heavily on intermarket analysis when evaluating the outlook for precious metals—especially the U.S. dollar, which has a well-established inverse correlation with gold, silver, and other commodities. 

I’ve held a bearish view on the dollar since the beginning of the year, and that thesis has played out well, helping to lift precious metals across the board—including platinum and palladium.

Yesterday offered a textbook example of this dynamic in action. Gold jumped 1.43% and silver surged 1.98%, both driven higher by renewed dollar weakness—largely a result of falling Treasury yields. 

In this update, I’ll break down where gold and silver currently stand—placing special emphasis on silver, which, as I outlined in a recent in-depth report, is now firmly in the grip of a strengthening bull market.

Let’s start with COMEX silver futures, which I track closely due to their tendency to respect key $1 increments—often forming well-defined support and resistance zones. 

Silver’s bull market truly kicked off in early June, when it finally broke above the stubborn $32–$35 resistance zone that had capped gains for over a year. I viewed that breakout as a clear signal that silver had entered a new phase—one where it’s beginning to assert itself and catch up to gold after lagging behind for much of the previous year.

After that breakout, silver consolidated for about a month before launching another strong move higher on July 11th—adding further confirmation of the emerging bull market. Yesterday’s surge has only strengthened that case, with silver now rapidly closing in on the $40 mark.

Now let’s take a look at silver’s long-term monthly chart to identify past resistance clusters that are likely to serve as price targets during this new bull run. These resistance zones were formed during periods of price congestion, most notably during silver’s surge and peak in 2011 and 2012.

The two most prominent levels that stand out to me are the $42–$44 zone and, ultimately, the $48–$50 zone. There is a strong probability that silver will aim for the most obvious target — $50 — during this rally. 

And while it will likely pause to consolidate once it gets there, there’s no reason it has to stop at that level.

I’ve also developed a proprietary indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), designed to help validate silver’s price action and filter out potential false breakouts. The SSPI is calculated as the average of gold and copper prices, with copper scaled by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from dominating the index. 

Interestingly, even though silver isn’t part of the calculation, the SSPI closely tracks its movements. 

In early July, the SSPI finally broke out of its 2,800–3,000 trading range—where it had been stuck since March—thanks to strength in both gold and copper. This breakout was a promising signal that foreshadowed the silver rally I had been anticipating and served as one of the key confirmations I had been waiting for.

In addition, another bullish signal emerged yesterday in the SSPI, which broke out of a pennant pattern that had formed in recent weeks—indicating further upside momentum ahead for both the index and silver itself:

Helping to propel both the Synthetic Silver Price Index and silver itself was copper’s breakout earlier this month above the key $5.00–$5.20 resistance zone—a level that had capped prices for several years. 

As I explained previously, this breakout likely marks the start of a new bull market in copper, which should also provide strong tailwinds for silver.

Gold has been consolidating in recent months, digesting its earlier gains—a normal and healthy pause, especially during the low-volume summer period when Wall Street activity slows. 

It’s currently trading between $3,200 and $3,500, and my outlook remains to watch for a high-volume breakout above $3,500 as confirmation that the bull market is resuming. Such a move would give silver an additional boost as well.

In case you missed it, I recommend reading my recent updates outlining why gold is likely headed toward $4,000—and how continued appreciation in the euro should help propel gold out of its current trading range and toward new all-time highs.

As a long-time silver bull who invests in physical bullion, I’m also highly enthusiastic about silver mining stocks. These are leveraged plays on the price of silver and have historically delivered exceptional returns during silver bull markets. 

I’m increasingly optimistic about their prospects and see clear signs that this sector is poised to heat up in the near future.

I use the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) as a useful proxy to track the performance of silver mining stocks. SIL broke out of a long-term triangle pattern a few months ago, which is a bullish development. 

However, a decisive close above the key $48–$52 resistance zone is still needed to fully confirm that the bull market in silver mining stocks is truly underway — and we’re getting very close.

Junior silver mining stocks, as measured by the SILJ ETF, are finally perking up but remain confined within a long-term triangle pattern that dates back to 2013. 

Once this pattern decisively breaks to the upside, I believe silver mining stocks—especially the juniors—are poised to surge in a truly spectacular fashion. 

As I noted at the beginning of this update, yesterday’s strong performance in precious metals was driven largely by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell 0.63% on the U.S. Dollar Index. 

Because gold and silver tend to move inversely to the dollar, this kind of weakness in the greenback typically serves as a tailwind for precious metals—and that was clearly the case yesterday.

The U.S. Dollar Index’s recent break below the key 100 level established a clear downward bias that remains intact—despite the modest rebound since early July. 

Naturally, markets don’t move in straight lines, but the broader momentum for the dollar is still firmly to the downside. That remains my current bias and outlook, which should continue to provide support for both gold and silver.

To summarize, even though we’re deep into the dog days of summer—when trading volume is light and many financial professionals are away on vacation (I recently returned from a wonderful multi-week tour of the Southern United States)—it’s encouraging to see both gold and silver holding up well. 

It’s also gratifying to watch many of the outlooks I’ve laid out in recent updates play out as expected.

Silver, in particular, appears poised to break into the $40s—a move that’s likely to finally grab the attention of mainstream retail investors who dismissed it at lower levels. That surge in interest would be a major boost for those of us who held our ground while silver was struggling and largely forgotten.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday asserted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not need to resign though also he also repeated his desire for a review of the central bank’s operations.
“There’s nothing that tells me that he should step down right now. He’s been a good public servant,” Bessent said.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives for the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference at the Federal Reserve on July 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday asserted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell does not need to resign though also he also repeated his desire for a review of the central bank’s operations.
A day after calling on CNBC for an examination of the Fed’s “entire” operation, Bessent said that doesn’t mean the central bank leader should step down. President Donald Trump, conversely, has said he hopes Powell quits and has pondered removing him.

“I know Chair Powell. There’s nothing that tells me that he should step down right now. He’s been a good public servant,” Bessent said on Fox Business. “His term ends in May. If he wants to see that through, I think he should. If he wants to leave early, I think he should.”
There have been no indications from Powell that he plans to step down despite a barrage of criticism from the Trump administration.
Most recently, White House officials have zeroed in on the Fed’s $2.5 billion building renovation project that has included significant cost overruns.
Bessent said his desire for a review of Fed operations should come internally, with monetary policy and the setting of interest rates “off to the side” and in a “jewel box” away from political influence.
“Everything else that the Fed has done over the years has just grown and grown and grown, and this is what happens when you don’t have oversight,” he said.

For Powell, leading an internal review would be “a real chance here for him, for his legacy, to be that he right-sized the non-monetary policy functions of the Fed,” Bessent added.
Trump has demanded that the Fed lower interest rates dramatically, though the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee at its policy meeting next week is again expected to stay on hold. Powell and most of his colleagues have indicated they want to wait to see the impact that Trump’s tariffs are having on inflation before taking any further steps.

In a CNBC interview Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who has hinted she would favor at cut at this month’s meeting, supported the notion of Fed independence but also stressed the need for accountability.
“It’s very important, and I’ve said this a number of times in the past, that we maintain our independence with respect to monetary policy,” she said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “But we also, as a part of that independence, have an obligation for transparency and accountability as well.”
Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed keep its short-term borrowing rate locked in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, but are leaning toward the likelihood of a cut in September, according to CME Group futures data. Continue reading →

Gold:The Captain’s daily gold chart. Analysis: We continue to rally in wave .v. of -iii-. Within wave .v., we completed wave ^i^ of *i* at the 1997.20 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1931.80. We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, which has a projected endpoint of:^iii^ = 6.25^i^ = 3249.40.                             Within wave *iii* of ^iii^, we completed wave -i- at 2151.20 and wave -ii- at 1973.10. We are still rallying in a subdividing wave -iii- with wave $i$ ending at 2088.50, wave $ii$ at 1984.30, wave $iii$ at the 2431.50 high, and our wave $iv$ bullish triangle at the 2277.60 low. It looks like all of wave $v$ of *iii* ended at the 3167.70 high, wave *iv* at the 2956.90 low and wave *v*, at the 3500.30 high, to complete all of wave -iii-.If that is the case, then we are now moving lower in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:23.6% = 3130.10.38.2% = 2916.90.We have adopted our bullish triangle option for wave -iv-, which has an internal wave structure of:*a* = 3120.90.*b* = 3451.60.*c* = 3247.50.*d* rally is now underway, which must stay below 3451.60.*e* drop after wave *d* ends, to complete wave -iv-.We are now watching an alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave -iv- ended at the 3120.90 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave -v-. Within wave -v-, we have the following internal count:*i* = 3366.40.*ii* = 3247.90*iii* is now underway and has an initial projected endpoint of:*iii* = 1.618*i* = 3645.10!Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.  Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops!              US Stk Mkt:The Captain’s SP500 120 Minute chart. Analysis: We are still working on wave -v-, and within wave -v-, we are still moving higher in wave .iii., which has a projected endpoint of:.iii. = 2.618.i. = 6535.10.We still expect higher prices as wave .iii. continues, but after that we expect a “biblical” collapse in the US stk mkt!Silver:The Captain’s daily silver chart. Analysis: Wave ii ended at 18.01, and we are working on a powerful wave iii rally that is full of nested bullish waves, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.Within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at 24.39 and wave (ii) at 19.94 and are moving higher in wave (iii), which has a updated projected endpoint of:(iii) = 4.236(i) = 48.63.Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 26.23, wave -ii- at 20.85, wave -iii- and all of wave -iv- at 28.29. We should still move higher in wave -v- to complete all of wave (iii).Within wave -v-, wave !i! ended at 33.69 and wave !ii! at 31.78. We should now be moving higher in wave !iii!, which has initial projected endpoint of:!iii! = 1.618!i! = 41.71.We continue to move higher in wave !iii!, and within wave !iii!, we completed wave ^iv^ at the 35.20 low and we are now moving higher in wave ^v^.Next major resistance is 39.57 and then 44.28!Trading Recommendation: Go long with puts as stops.                                                                                     Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!                  Thank-you,Captain Ewave & Crew Continue reading →

Gold and silver are strong in Wednesday morning trading on a weakened dollar and slumping Treasury yields, with DG spot … Continue reading →

Gold, silver see price gains amid dips in USDX, bond yields | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

Gold prices are up about 25% this year as investors seek a safe haven from trade war anxieties and geopolitical tensions.
High-net-worth Americans are increasingly turning to physical gold to diversify from the depreciating U.S. dollar, according to Stephen Jury of J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
While paranoid gold investors may be tempted to keep their bullions at home, there are more secure — and pricier — options, such as vaults in the Swiss Alps.

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, Dec. 22, 2023.
Chalinee Thirasupa | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
With gold prices up roughly 25% this year, the precious metal is in such demand that Costco has capped how many gold bars shoppers can buy in a day. A recent HSBC survey of affluent investors found that gold allocations had more than doubled this year from 5% to 11%.

High-net-worth individuals are getting in on the action too, bankers to the wealthy told CNBC, even if they aren’t buying gold bars along with rotisserie chickens. HSBC’s James Steel said the asset’s safe-haven appeal has been bolstered by trade war anxieties and geopolitical tensions. 
“Gold is a friend of uncertainty,” said the chief precious metals analyst.
Investors in Asia and the Middle East have long invested in physical gold due to currency fluctuations, high inflation and cultural affinities. Edmund Shing, global chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, said overseas family offices have allocations as high as 5% to 10% in physical gold or gold-backed investments. 
However, J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Stephen Jury said there has been a noticeable uptick among high-net-worth U.S. clients who want to diversify from the depreciating U.S. dollar.
“If you’re buying euros or yen and you need to buy an underlying security with that currency, that starts to get a little bit more complex for most clients,”  said Jury, the private bank’s global commodity strategist.  On the other hand, investing in gold is “easier to get their head around,” he said.

For short-term gold trading, futures are a popular option, according to Steel. Investing in physical gold or ETFs is more attractive to investors who plan to buy and hold, he said. Since investing in bars and bullions usually comes with insurance and storage fees, it takes a higher allocation to make it worth your while, he added.
There are a slew of options, some more expensive than others. Jury recommended private bank clients invest in unallocated gold held in a J.P. Morgan vault, meaning they have a claim to the gold’s value but do not own a specific bar and can’t take it. It comes with lower fees than ETFs or allocated bars. Clients can buy a fraction of an unallocated bar for $250,000, whereas buying an allocated bar of 400 ounces costs about $1 million and incurs insurance and storage fees.
However, the more paranoid gold investors aren’t deterred by fees and higher minimums, according to Jury.
“Some clients don’t like to do that because they think the world’s coming to an end, and they want to hold the gold and know that it’s their bar that belongs to them, and they can take delivery of that bar at any time,” he said. “As people get wealthier and get older, they get a little more cautious, and that’s putting it diplomatically.”
Some clients want to keep their gold bars with them, with one telling Jury that she planned to bury it in her garden.
“I said, ‘Please don’t tell me that, and please don’t tell anyone else that,'” he recalled.

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Banks advise against keeping gold at home due to security risks and the difficulty of selling gold on the open market. They take numerous precautions, such as not disclosing vault locations and running background checks on clients who request to visit, Steel said.
Jury said only clients with very large gold holdings, likely in the range of $100 million, can tour J.P. Morgan’s vault in London.
“It would have to be a good reason for us to stop and show somebody their metal,” he said. “But it can be done, as in all things, if the amounts are large enough.”
Investors seeking the utmost security can opt for military bunkers turned vaults. Swiss Gold Safe has two such vaults deep in the Swiss Alps, according to COO Ludwig Karl. Many clients choose to diversify their gold holdings across multiple countries, including Singapore. Some go as far as doing their own audits on gold held at Swiss Gold Safe, he said. 
“Most of our clients are from first-world countries,” Karl said. “However, our clients have lower trust in government or financial systems or are trying to build a backup or insurance plan by holding precious metals outside of the banking system in a neutral and safe country.”
Steel said to get more investors to flock to gold as a safe haven they would have to be even more worried. 
“If you look at geopolitics and economic policy uncertainty as being drivers, then we would have to have an even higher geopolitical risk thermometer than we have now,” he said. “It would have to be pretty darn high.” Continue reading →

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Silver is on the move again. On Monday, it climbed 1.6 percent to just under $39 an ounce, the highest price we’ve seen since September 2011. That sort of jump catches attention, but it’s not just about headlines or technical levels. It’s about what silver is trying to tell us. Continue reading →