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While silver has been relatively quiet in recent weeks following its encouraging breakout, this doesn’t signal failure—rather, it looks like a healthy pause typical of low-volume summer trading.

On June 5th, silver finally broke above both the $32–$33 and $34–$35 resistance zones that had capped its upside for the past year, frustrating many silver bulls, including myself. 

Despite that stagnation, this breakout is a strong confirmation of that outlook. While silver has since paused, leading some to question the move, I believe it’s likely just consolidating before its next leg higher. In this update, I’ll cover where silver and key related assets stand now, what to watch for, and what’s likely coming next.

Let’s start with the basics: the COMEX silver futures chart, which I closely monitor because it tends to respect $1 increments as key support and resistance levels. Two major resistance zones had capped silver’s progress for much of the past year—$32 to $33 and $34 to $35—until the breakout in early June finally pushed prices through those barriers.

That breakout drove silver as high as $37 before it pulled back slightly to the $36 area. This dip has been driven in part by weakness in related assets like gold and copper, as well as mounting geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Iran, and now the U.S. entering the picture. Unlike gold, which is purely a precious metal and safe haven, silver also responds to industrial demand and economic shifts, making it more sensitive to both fear and economic risk.

Still, despite this modest retreat, the breakout remains intact and technically strong. For now, I view the recent price action as a healthy consolidation. I’m not concerned—but I am watching closely for further confirmation, which I’ll detail in the next set of charts.

I’ve also developed a proprietary indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), designed to help validate silver’s price action and filter out potential false breakouts. 

The SSPI is calculated as the average of gold and copper prices, with copper scaled by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from dominating the index. Interestingly, even though silver isn’t part of the calculation, the SSPI closely tracks its movements. 

Since March, the SSPI has been trading in a consolidation range between 2,800 and 3,000. I believe that a decisive breakout above the 3,000 level would serve as yet another bullish confirmation for silver, as strength in both gold and copper would provide a supportive tailwind, making it increasingly difficult for silver to stay suppressed.

While the SSPI has made several breakout attempts, it has yet to push through—but that’s no cause for concern. Consolidations and trading ranges are a normal part of healthy bull markets, especially during the quieter summer months when trading activity and news flow typically slow as Wall Street heads out on vacation. I’m continuing to monitor this closely and will be watching for that eventual breakout.

I also like to examine the individual components of the Synthetic Silver Price Index—gold and copper—to get a better sense of where the index, and therefore silver, might be headed next. As I’ve been explaining, gold has been consolidating for the past two months, just as I expected, after briefly touching the key $3,500 resistance level before pulling back.

This consolidation is both normal and healthy following such a strong bullish run, especially during the typically quiet summer months when trading volume tends to decline. In fact, a similar pattern played out last summer before gold resumed its rally in the fall. I’ll continue to monitor this consolidation closely and keep you updated on how it unfolds.

Copper futures continue to consolidate but are holding firm just below the key $5.00 to $5.20 resistance zone. A decisive breakout above that level would contribute to a broader breakout in the SSPI, adding further bullish momentum to silver. There are also several compelling reasons to be bullish on copper, as I outlined in a recent report.

Another key asset I closely monitor to better understand the broader commodity landscape is the U.S. dollar, specifically the U.S. Dollar Index, which has historically moved inversely to commodities, including precious metals. As I’ve recently noted, the Dollar Index broke below the critical 100 support level, which has now flipped into resistance.

This marks a significant technical breakdown that tilts the outlook for the dollar decidedly bearish, while reinforcing a strong bullish backdrop for commodities like gold, silver, platinum, and copper. Notably, the dollar’s weakness amid recent Middle East turmoil—an environment that typically strengthens safe-haven assets like the dollar—signals deeper underlying fragility.

In addition to silver itself, I’m also highly bullish on silver mining stocks and ETFs, which I expect to deliver even larger gains in the coming bull market due to their leverage to the price of silver. Large silver miners, as tracked by the SIL ETF, have been performing strongly after breaking out of a long-term triangle pattern that dates all the way back to 2011.

SIL is now testing a critical resistance zone between $48 and $52—a level that has repeatedly capped rallies since 2016. I believe a decisive breakout above this zone, especially in tandem with a fully confirmed silver bull market, will trigger an explosive move higher in silver mining stocks. I’m watching closely and very excited about the potential upside.

To summarize, while silver has been relatively quiet in recent weeks following its encouraging breakout, that doesn’t mean the move has failed—nor is there reason for frustration or discouragement. I remain optimistic, especially recognizing that summer is often a period of consolidation due to lower trading volumes. That seems to be the case now with silver, gold, and copper all taking a breather. 

I’m still watching for additional bullish confirmation, particularly a breakout in silver priced in euros, the Synthetic Silver Price Index, gold, and copper, as well as a continued breakdown in the U.S. dollar, which remains in a technically vulnerable position. I’ll continue to keep you updated as this situation evolves.

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Gold prices at session lows after U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 236k | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on June 23, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

An aggressive trade war, Middle East escalation and AI competitions overseas — None of 2025’s big curveballs managed to spoil the market’s epic comeback from the year’s lows as stocks stand within reach of a new record. Here’s why.
The S&P 500 is just 0.85% away from closing at a new record, rebounding from a near 20% sell-off in April. The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 is already one step ahead, hitting an all-time high on Tuesday. The latest leg higher came as investors bet a ceasefire in the Middle East could prevent a major disruption to global oil supply.

“I’m surprised by the magnitude of the rebound,” said Kevin Simpson, portfolio manager at Capital Wealth Planning. “When you factor in the geopolitical backdrop — the ongoing conflict, volatility and uncertainty — I wouldn’t have expected the S&P 500 to snap back to new highs this quickly. This kind of strength speaks to just how much liquidity is still in the system and how eager investors are to buy dips in a market dominated by megacap tech and AI enthusiasm.” 

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Overall, the wall of worry has been crumbling little by little over the past four months. Perhaps most importantly, President Donald Trump backed off from the stiffest tariffs on key U.S. partners as countries continue to negotiate trade deals in the summer. Earlier this month, the U.S. reached a trade truce with China with Beijing agreeing to supply rare earths.
“We expect more trade deals to provide some additional clarity and eventually reduce corporate, consumer and investor anxiety,” Chris Haverland, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute., said in a note. “Deregulation, tax cuts and lower short-term borrowing rates should further bolster earnings.”
Also, corporate earnings have held up well despite policy uncertainty. For the second quarter, the S&P 500 earnings grew by 4.9%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index, according to FactSet.
Economy in good shape
Another reason for market resilience is the U.S. economy, which remains on solid footing. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2% also the May nonfarm payrolls report showed only a slight softening in the labor market. The most recent inflation data also indicated that tariffs have done little to affect prices.

The Federal Reserve expects to make two rate reductions later this year, according to the closely watched “dot plot.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he expects policymakers to stay on hold until they have a better handle on the impact tariffs will have on prices.
“In our baseline scenario we believe a US recession will be avoided,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief global equity strategist at JPMorgan, said in a note to clients. “Recent weakness in some of the labour market indicators and limited pass-through from tariffs to inflation so far could prompt a Fed easing earlier than our December forecast.”
AI story intact
Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence story that has supported the market well over two years continues to be unfazed. The latest earnings season has restored investor confidence — Nvidia continued to grow at a rapid clip, while Big Tech’s spending on AI hasn’t slowed down. Investors were rattled at the beginning of the year as China’s DeepSeek startup raised the question whether the billions of dollars of investment was justified.

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Nvidia leading the rally

“The secular trend of AI remains robust, and recent adoption and monetization trends should underpin the next leg of the AI rally amid a supportive backdrop,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, head CIO global equities at UBS, said in a note to clients.
JPMorgan estimated that AI could drive $1 trillion of spending by 2030, including investments in generative AI computing, networking and storage infrastructure.
Still, the next few weeks could bring more volatility to the market. Investors are bracing for a July 8 deadline for reciprocal tariff suspension, while more jobs data are on deck next week to gauge the health of the labor market.
“Markets often tend to see more volatility in the build up to conflicts and then rally or turn to other factors once it’s started,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth. Continue reading →

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Due to confusion on what may or may not happen in the Israel/Iran war, gold faltered this past week. On the week, we ended down 1.8%. The Fed didn’t help with talk of inflation and no rate cuts, at least until the fall. Silver fared only somewhat better, down 0.7%. However, platinum gained 4.5%, palladium was up 1.6%, and copper rose 1.9%. Copper’s rising is a positive development as often gold follows copper’s lead. Also, silver’s not losing as much as gold we view positively. Nonetheless, a failure to make new highs while silver did is a bit of an unresolved negative divergence. The goings-on in the Middle East could make or break gold’s near-term performance. For gold bugs, it has been a banner year. Gold is up 27.6%, silver is up 23.2%, and platinum is up 38.7%. Palladium is also up 14.5% and copper up 19.9%. However, it has been the gold stocks that have been on fire, as at week’s end, despite losses for both the TSX Gold Index (TGD) and the Gold Bugs Index (HUI), they are up in 2025 49.5% and 52.9% respectively. Again, while silver made a new 52-week highs, we note that both the TGD and the HUI failed to make new highs this past week. Divergences.

As a follower of cycles, we have often talked about gold’s 7.8-year cycle (range 83–104 months). The low in December 2015 was a major 7.8-year cycle low. The next 7.8-year cycle low occurred in November 2022. So, we are on a new up cycle in the 7.8-year cycle. Typically, that cycle breaks down into two 3.9-year cycles (47 months) or three 2.6-year cycles (31 months). The first 2.6-year cycle low could be due in June 2025 +/- 3-months. So here we are, but a low hasn’t been seen yet. It is possible the low was made in May at $3,120. However, to confirm that low we need to see new highs above $3,500. So far, we have not. Add in the divergence with silver and it remains possible we could have another down thrust to complete the cycle. That could place a potential low for gold somewhere around mid-July 2025. It would also suggest the pattern that developed from the $3,500 top to be unfolding as an ABCDE-type pattern with ABCD complete and E wave down to come. A break under $3,300 would confirm we are on the E wave down. The drop could take us to $3,100. But if things went off the rails with the end of the Israel/Iran conflict, then we could fall in a worst case to $2,900 and major long-term support. Remember that this would only be the first 31-month cycle low with two more cycles to come. If on the other hand we break to new highs then we are also probably having an expansion of the Israel/Iran war.  If there is a down cycle to the 7.8-year cycle, it is the third 31-month cycle. However, the crest of the current 7.8-year may not come until into that third cycle. Since the 7.8-year cycle could break into two 47-month cycles, it remains possible that we have more to go in the current up cycle. New highs over $3,500 with no new lows could confirm that we are still rising with the 47-month still to crest.

We are short-term cautious on gold right now but long-term bullish. The bull pattern kicks back in with new highs over $3,500 and both gold and silver (and the gold stocks) making new highs. However, if the short-term caution does show, we should bottom sometime next month.

Coincidently, there appears to be a divergence of views on gold’s moves between two of the biggest players, Goldman Sachs and Citibank. Goldman is calling for gold $4,000 in 2026 while Citi is calling for gold to fall below $3,000 in 2026. Could they both be right? It is possible.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Silver finally broke out and made new 52-week highs. However, we don’t like the way it broke out. Platinum is doing something similar. Both made new 52-week highs this past week, then turned down. Silver ended the week down 0.7%; however, platinum held on to a 4.5% gain. A break now of $35 could suggest a top is in. Under $34.50 a top is in. There is considerable support down to $32 to $34, but a break under $32 would be negative and we could fall to $29. New highs could end the down discussion. No negative divergences were seen at the top. If the breakout is correct, our target is up to $44. But false breakouts are all a part of the market as they bring in a lot of new players, setting them up for a fall. The bottom line is, a break of $34.50 is negative and could set us on the path towards $32/$34.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Have the gold stocks made a temporary top? Could be. We topped on the TSX Gold Index (TGD) on April 16 at 510.76. Another higher high top was made on June 5 at 518.01. On both days the high was made, then the market turned down. While the TGD made a higher high on June 5, the indicators did not confirm as all were making lower highs. Now we appear to be turning down from the June 5 top without making another high.  All of these are negative divergences. On the week, the TGD fell 1.7% while the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) fell 2.4% as it made the same pattern as the TGD.

A break now of 500 would start to confirm the top and project a fall, most likely to that uptrend line that currently comes in at 460. If we were to take out the recent low at 435, the odds then favour a decline to around 400. Only firm new highs could break this pattern. Another new high that doesn’t firmly take out the June 5 high sets up a pattern we call three thrusts to a high. Once that happens, a larger decline could get underway. It’s a warning.

Read the FULL report: Technical Scoop: Surprise Entrance, Supply Questions, Uncertain Globe

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

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