Category Archives: Silver Rounds

(Bloomberg) — US equity futures rose as traders awaited a batch of economic data for clues on the interest-rate outlook … Continue reading →

Just last month, on January 6, I showed you a chart of Dow/Gold that suggested we would soon see the ratio begin … Continue reading →

Silver has quietly had a strong start to 2025, with the price up 12.6 percent. However, it remains significantly underpriced compared to gold from a historical perspective with the gold-silver ratio still above 90-1. 

The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold given the current spot price of both metals.

While industrial demand has a much bigger impact on the price of silver than gold, silver is still fundamentally a monetary metal and its price tends to track with gold over time. The gold-silver ratio reflects this relationship.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1. The current ratio running so much wider than that historical spread indicates that silver is underpriced and is a bargain compared to gold.

As with most averages, the gold-silver ratio tends to eventually return to the mean when it gets significantly out of whack. Over the last few decades, this snap-back has tended to happen very quickly. 

For instance, in 2020, the gold-silver ratio set a record of 123-1 as the pandemic gripped and then plunged to around 60-1 as central banks around the world cranked up the money creation machine to cope with governments shutting down economies. 

The 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession provide another example. The spread rose to over 80-1 in the early days of the crisis and then fell to 30-1 as the Federal Reserve cranked up the money printing machine.

These two examples indicate that there appears to be some correlation between the gold-silver ratio and central bank money creation. The spread tends to drop when the Fed cranks up money creation and opens back up when the central bank attempts to tighten monetary policy. 

The ratio did narrow as the Fed began discussing monetary easing last summer, but it now appears that the central bank is trying to slow rate cuts due to sticky price inflation. Even so, the slowdown in balance sheet reduction the Fed initiated last summer and the three rate cuts late last year have already created a more inflationary environment with the money supply rising. This is, by definition, inflation. This has supported both gold and silver prices, along with market volatility caused by the flow of metal from London to New York due to tariff threats and other factors. 

Given the level of debt and malinvestments in the economy due to decades of easy money, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed is forced to lean back into monetary easing. This could be the catalyst to drive silver higher and close the gold-silver ratio.

The supply and demand dynamics also indicate that silver is underpriced. 

There is also a technical indicator that is bullish for silver. 

Last fall, I reported on a “secular cup and handle” pattern in silver. Since November, we have seen a short-term cup and handle patent develop within the handle of the larger secular trend.

You can see the “cup” with the twin highs of just below $33 per ounce. Following the last peak, we see a dip in the price followed by what appears to be a consolidation “handle.”

A handle pattern on the chart of a stock or commodity often precedes a breakout.

This potential breakout will be something to watch for in the coming weeks.

Regardless, given the gold-silver ratio spread, silver appears to be set up for a significant leg up in the near to midterm. If this plays out as it has historically, this is a good time for investors to take advantage of silver’s relatively lower price before the breakout begins. Continue reading →

Gold edges back up above the $2900 an ounce mark early Wednesday after hitting a one-week low in the previous … Continue reading →

By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK (Reuters) – The S&P 500 will finish 2025 up about 9% from now, but volatility … Continue reading →

Fort Knox, known officially as the United States Bullion Depository, holds as much mystery as the gold it supposedly secures. … Continue reading →

Summary The President is embarking on a trade war that could put the economic expansion at risk and the rest … Continue reading →

Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Rising Inflation, Golden Haven, Oily Bottom

Copper prices have broken out and are rising. This is a sign of inflationary pressures. Copper is also a leading indicator for gold. As noted, gold has already been making new all-time highs. As the chaos continues, we expect it to rise further. We continue to have targets up around $3,600 although expect resistance along the way. There continues to be signs that gold is being pulled out of the London markets and transferred to the U.S. to avoid tariffs down the road. The only bothering sign for gold, at least in the near term is what appears as an ascending wedge triangle. If correct it is short-term bearish and gold, if it were to break under $2,900, could in effect see a decline to $2,700. Gold stocks took it on the chin on Friday Feb 21, 2025 alongside the 700+ point drop for the DJI. Not a good sign. If we do get that break (a real possibility) the next move up for gold would take us to $3,000 and higher.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury note vs. CPI rate of change 2016-2025

 

Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, www.bls.gov

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Source: www.stockcharts.com

 Markets & Trends

 

 

 

% Gains (Losses)                              Trends

 

 

Close

Dec 31/24

Close

Feb 21/25

Week

YTD

Daily (Short Term)

Weekly (Intermediate)

Monthly (Long Term)

Stock Market Indices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P 500

5,881.63

6,013.13 (new highs) *

(1.7)%

2.2%

up (weak)

up

up

Dow Jones Industrials

42,544.22

43,428.02

(2.5)%

2.1%

neutral

up

up

                     Dow Jones Transport

16,030.66

16,034.36

(3.5)%

0.9%

down (weak)

up

up

NASDAQ

19,310.79

19,524.01

(2.5)%

1.1%

neutral

up

up

S&P/TSX Composite

24,796.40

25,147.03

(1.3)%

1.7%

neutral

up

up

S&P/TSX Venture (CDNX)

597.87

634.69

(0.9)%

6.2%

up

up

neutral

S&P 600 (small)

1,408.17

1,378.06

(3.6)%

(2.1)%

down

up

up

MSCI World

2,304.50

2,478.41

0.2%

7.6%

up

up

up

Bitcoin

93,467.13

95,610.98

(1.4)%

2.3%

down

up

up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Mining Stock Indices

 

                                         

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Bugs Index (HUI)

275.58

320.59

(1.6)%

16.3%

up

up

up

TSX Gold Index (TGD)

336.87

402.50

(0.4)%

19.5%

up

up

up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield

4.58%

4.43%

(1.1)%

(3.3)%

 

 

 

Cdn. 10-Year Bond CGB yield

3.25%

3.13%

1.0%

(3.7)%

 

 

 

Recession Watch Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. 2-year 10-year Treasury spread

0.33%

0.23%

9.5%

(30.3)%

 

 

 

Cdn 2-year 10-year CGB spread

0.30%

0.39%

5.4%

30.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currencies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US$ Index

108.44

106.64

0.1%

(1.7)%

down

up

up

Canadian $

69.49

.7025

(0.4)%

1.1%

up

down

down

Euro

103.54

104.59

(0.3)%

1.0%

up

down

down

Swiss Franc

110.16

111.45

0.3%

1.2%

up

down

neutral

British Pound

125.11

126.29

0.3%

0.9%

up

down

neutral

Japanese Yen

63.57

67.03

2.1%

5.4%

up

neutral

 down

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Precious Metals

 

                       

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

2,641.00

2,953.20 (new highs) *

1.8%

11.8%

up

up

up

Silver

29.24

33.01

0.5%

12.9%

up

up

up

Platinum

910.50

987.7

(3.1)%

8.5%

neutral

up

up (weak)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Base Metals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Palladium

909.80

990.90

(1.8)%

8.9%

up (weak)

up (weak)

down

Copper

4.03

4.56

(2.2)%

13.2%

up

up

up (weak)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil

71.72

        70.40

(0.4)%

(1.8)%

down

down (weak)

down

Nat Gas

3.63

4.27 (new highs)

14.5%

17.6%

up

up

neutral

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Source: www.stockcharts.com

* New All-Time Highs

 

Note: For an explanation of the trends, see the glossary at the end of this article.

New highs/lows refer to new 52-week highs/lows and, in some cases, all-time highs.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Rising Inflation, Golden Haven, Oily Bottom

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

[embedded content]They Did WHAT with the Gold! Is A Gold Run Next | https://www.themorganreport.com
That’s when you have a gold run or a run on the bank. And that’s what could be—I want to use the word could, not would—taking place right now,” says David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report. In an interview with Daniela Cambone, he compares the recent gold supply crunch in London, much of which was triggered by tariff threats as investors bought cheaper gold in London and sold it for a higher price in New York, to a traditional bank run. “Some gold holders started to wake up and say, wait a minute, there are delays in the LBMA. There shouldn’t be, or at least not that long. I’m going to get my gold back.” Additionally, he states that some of the gold stored in Fort Knox was coin melt, meaning it was taken from gold coins, which are typically made of 90% gold, not pure gold. “For a gold contract to be valid, it has to be 999 fine. In other words, it’s just gold, it’s not gold and another metal.
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Gold futures were rising, holding close to record highs as geopolitical and trade tensions boost safe-haven demand.Futures were up 0.3% at $2,961.70 a troy ounce, close to an all-time high of $2,973.40/oz, set on Thursday.Gold recorded its eighth consecutive week of gains and a fresh high in recent days on fears that the U.S. could unwind its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia, ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Continue reading →

Gold Revaluation Moves from Fringe to Mainstream Over the last year, and especially the past 72 hours, the topic of … Continue reading →