Category Archives: Silver

A federal trade court blocked a large piece of President Trump’s tariff agenda in a ruling Wednesday.
An appeals court temporarily paused that order on Thursday.
Even if the lower court’s ruling holds, the average household would lose $950 of purchasing power in 2025 as a result of tariffs that remain on the books, on products like steel, aluminum and automobiles, according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis.
The Trump administration has signaled more tariffs may be coming for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and lumber.

President Donald Trump holds a chart as he announces a plan for tariffs on imported goods during an event April 2, 2025, in the Rose Garden at the White House.
Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The fate of many of President Trump’s tariffs is uncertain after a string of court rulings this week.
But even if a court block on country-specific tariffs is upheld, others that would remain on the books — for products like steel and automobiles — are still expected to cost consumers almost $1,000 a year, according to a new analysis by the Yale Budget Lab.

“It does pinch” consumers’ wallets, said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.
Tariffs are a tax paid on imports, paid by U.S. entities importing the good. Businesses are expected to pass on at least some of those costs to consumers.
However, the dollar impact of those remaining tariffs is “a far cry” from what it would be if the country-specific tariffs were to remain, he said.
The U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked country-specific tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff on most nations and separate levies on Canada, Mexico and China tied to allegations of fentanyl trafficking.
A three-judge panel found Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose those import duties.

An appeals court temporarily paused the order on Thursday as it reviews the case.

Steel, aluminum auto tariffs remain

However, 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and auto parts are still in place, with some carve-outs, as well as certain tariffs on China imposed during Trump’s first term and expanded during the Biden administration, Jennifer McKeown and Stephen Brown, economists at Capital Economists, wrote in a note Thursday.
Those tariffs were imposed using different legal authorities.
If the lower court’s order holds, those remaining tariffs would cost the average household $950 of purchasing power in 2025, according to the Yale Budget Lab analysis published Thursday. That amounts to a 0.6% increase in consumer prices, it found.
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Another way consumers can view this legal development: The initial court ruling, if upheld, would save households more than $1,800 this year, said Tedeschi.
That’s because the average household would lose about $2,800 in 2025 if the country-specific tariffs were to stay on the books, Tedeschi said.
In that case, consumer prices would rise about 1.7% this year, he said.

McKeown and Brown estimate the court ruling would lower the effective tariff rate to 6.5% from 15%. It was 2.5% at the start of the year, they said.
“The most direct impact” of the remaining tariffs will be on car buying, Tedeschi said. Car prices would likely rise about 8% this year and 5% over the longer term, he said.
But steel and aluminum are inputs in a swath of consumer products, from homebuilding to household appliances.

Not necessarily ‘the end of things’ for tariffs

The Supreme Court may be the final arbiter for Trump’s country-specific tariffs, a process that may take “many months,” according to McKeown and Brown.
Additionally, “it would be unlikely to mark the end of the tariff war given the various other routes through which the Trump administration could impose tariffs,” they wrote.
The Trump administration has also signaled an intent to put duties on additional products like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and lumber.
Yesterday’s court decision was a “landmark ruling,” Tedeschi said. “I don’t expect it’ll be the end of things.” Continue reading →

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China controlled 69% of rare earth mine production in 2024, and nearly half of the world’s reserves.
There are barely any alternatives to China for obtaining the rare earths.
“You cannot build a modern car without rare earths,” an analyst said.

Annealed neodymium iron boron magnets sit in a barrel prior to being crushed into powder at Neo Material Technologies Inc.’s Magnequench Tianjin Co. factory in Tianjin, China.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — As China tightens its grip on the global supply of key minerals, the West is working to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earth.
This includes finding alternative sources of rare earth minerals, developing technologies to reduce reliance, and recovering existing stockpiles through recycling products that are reaching the end of their shelf life.

“You cannot build a modern car without rare earths,” said consulting firm AlixPartners, noting how Chinese companies have come to dominate the supply chain for the minerals.
In September 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense invested $4.2 million in Rare Earth Salts, a startup that aims to extract the oxides from domestic recycled products such as fluorescent light bulbs. Japan’s Toyota has also been investing in technologies to reduce the use of rare earth elements.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China controlled 69% of rare earth mine production in 2024, and nearly half of the world’s reserves.
Analysts from AlixPartners estimate that a typical single-motor battery electric vehicle includes around 550 grams (1.21 pounds) of components containing rare earths, unlike gasoline-powered cars, which only use 140 grams of rare earths, or about 5 ounces.

Pretty soon, the first generation of EVs will be up for recycling themselves, creating a pool of ex-China material that will be under the control of the West.

Christopher Ecclestone
Principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company

More than half of the new passenger cars sold in China are battery-only and hybrid-powered cars, unlike the U.S., where they are still mostly gasoline-powered.

“With slowing EV uptake (in the U.S.) and mandates to convert from ICE to EV formats receding into the future, the imperative for replacing Chinese-sourced materials in EVs is declining,” said Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.
“Pretty soon, the first generation of EVs will be up for recycling themselves, creating a pool of ex-China material that will be under the control of the West,” he said.

Only 7.5% of new U.S. vehicle sales in the first quarter were electric, a modest increase from a year ago, according to Cox Automotive. It pointed out that around two-thirds of EVs sold in the U.S. last year were assembled locally, but manufacturers still rely on imports for the parts.
“The current, full-blown trade war with China, the world’s leading supplier of EV battery materials, will distort the market even more.”

Rare torque

Of the 1.7 kilograms (3.74 pounds) of components containing rare earths found in a typical single-motor battery electric car, 550 grams (1.2 pounds) are rare earths. About the same amount, 510 grams, is used in hybrid-powered vehicles using lithium-ion batteries.

In early April, China announced export controls on seven rare earths. Those restrictions included terbium, 9 grams of which is typically used in a single-motor EV, AlixPartners data showed.
None of the six other targeted rare earths are significantly used in cars, according to the data. But April’s list is not the only one. A separate Chinese list of metal controls that took effect in December restricts exports of cerium, 50 grams of which AlixPartners said is used on average in a single-motor EV.
The controls mean that Chinese companies handling the minerals must get government approval to sell them overseas. Caixin, a Chinese business news outlet, reported on May 15, just days after a U.S.-China trade truce, that three leading Chinese rare earth magnet companies have received export licenses from the commerce ministry to ship to North America and Europe.
What’s concerning for international business is that there are barely any alternatives to China for obtaining the rare earths. Mines can take years to get operating approval, while processing plants also take time and expertise to establish.
“Today, China controls over 90% of the global refined supply for the four magnet rare earth elements (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb), which are used to make permanent magnets for EV motors,” the International Energy Agency said in a statement. That refers to neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

For the less commonly used nickel metal hydride batteries in hybrid cars, the amount of rare earths goes up to 4.45 kilograms, or nearly 10 pounds, according to AlixPartners. That’s largely because that kind of battery uses 3.5 kilograms of lanthanum.
“I estimate that around 70% of the over 200 kilograms of minerals in an EV goes through China, but it varies by vehicle and manufacturer. It’s hard to put a definitive figure on it,” said Henry Sanderson, associate fellow at The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security.

Power projection

However, there are limits to recycling, which remains challenging, energy-intensive and time-consuming. And even if adoption of EVs in the U.S. slows, the minerals are used in far larger quantities in defense.
For example, the F-35 fighter jet contains over 900 pounds of rare earths, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, D.C.
China’s rare earths restrictions also go beyond the closely watched list released on April 4.

Large rocks containing chromite, is crushed into smaller bitesize chunks, before to goes through a process to refine and extract the ore that yields chromium, a vital component of stainless steel, at the Mughulkhil mine in Logar Province, Afghanistan.
Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

In the last two years, China has increased its control over a broader category of metals known as critical minerals. In the summer of 2023, China said it would restrict exports of gallium and germanium, both used in chipmaking. About a year later, it announced restrictions on antimony, used to strengthen other metals and a significant component in bullets, nuclear weapons production and lead-acid batteries.
The State Council, the country’s top executive body, in October released an entire policy for strengthening controls of exports, including minerals, that might have dual-use properties, or be used for military and civilian purposes.

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One restriction that caught many in the industry by surprise was on tungsten, a U.S.-designated critical mineral but not a rare earth. The extremely hard metal is used in weapons, cutting tools, semiconductors and car batteries.
China produced about 80% of the global tungsten supply in 2024, and the U.S. imports 27% of tungsten from China, data from the U.S. Geological Survey showed.
About 2 kilograms of tungsten is typically used in each electric car battery, said Michael Dornhofer, founder of metals consulting firm Independent Supply Business Partner. He pointed out that this tungsten is not able to return to the recycling chain for at least seven years, and its low levels of use might not even make it reusable.
“50% of the world’s tungsten is consumed by China, so they have business as usual,” Lewis Black, CEO of tungsten mining company Almonty, said in an interview last month. “It’s the other 40% that’s produced (in China) that comes into the West that doesn’t exist.”
He said when the company’s forthcoming tungsten mine in South Korea reopens this year, it would mean there would be enough non-China supply of the metal to satisfy U.S., Europe and South Korean needs for defense.
But for autos, medical and aerospace, “we just don’t have enough.” Continue reading →

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