Category Archives: Silver

Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage

(Bloomberg) — Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government.The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity.Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level.All the scenarios see the pressure of sanctions intensifying, with more countries likely to join them. Europe’s sharp turn away from Russian oil and gas may also hit the Kremlin’s ability to supply its own market, the report said.Beyond the restrictions themselves, which cover about a quarter of imports and exports, the report details how Russia now faces a “blockade” that “has affected practically all forms of transport,” further cutting off the country’s economy. Technological and financial curbs add to the pressure. The report estimates as many as 200,000 IT specialists may leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of the widening brain drain.Publicly, officials say the hit from sanctions has been less than feared, with the contraction possibly less than 3% this year and even less in 2023. Outside economists have also adjusted the outlooks for this year, backing off initial forecasts of a deep recession as the economy has held up better than expected.Export DropThe document calls for a raft of measures to support the economy and further ease the impact of the restrictions in order to get the economy recovering to pre-war levels in 2024 and growing steadily after that. But the steps include many of the same measures to stimulate investment that the government has touted over the last decade, when growth largely stagnated even without sanctions.Asked about the Bloomberg report early Tuesday in Vladivostok, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov called the forecasts “analytical estimates that we used to calculate what would happen if we don’t resist, don’t do anything,” according to Tass.What Bloomberg Economics Says…“With diminished access to Western technologies, a wave of foreign corporate divestment and demographic headwinds ahead, the country’s potential growth is set to shrink to 0.5%-1.0% in the next decade. Thereafter, it will shrink further still, down to just above zero by 2050. Russia will also be increasingly vulnerable to a decline in global commodity prices, as international reserves no longer provide a buffer.” -Alexander Isakov, Russia economistOver the next year or two, the report warns of “reduced production volumes in a range of export-oriented sectors,” from oil and gas to metals, chemicals and wood products. While some rebound is possible later, “these sectors will cease to be the drivers of the economy.”No, Yale – Sanctions Have Not Triggered a Collapse in RussiaA full cutoff of gas to Europe, Russia’s main export market, could cost as much as 400 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) a year in lost tax revenues, according to the report. It won’t be possible to fully compensate the lost sales with new export markets even in the medium term.Oil Sector HitAs a result, output will have to be reduced, threatening Kremlin goals for expanding domestic gas supplies, the report said. The lack of technology needed for liquefied natural gas plants is “critical” and may hamper efforts to build new ones.Europe’s plans to stop importing Russian oil products — about 55% of exports went there last year — could trigger sharp cuts in production leaving the domestic market short of fuel, as well.Metals producers are losing $5.7 billion a year from the restrictions, the report said.If the world economy slips into recession, the report warns, Russia could see exports cut further as it becomes the “swing supplier” on global markets, with demand for its products disappearing first. That could trigger a plunge in the ruble and a spike in inflation.On the import side, “the main short-term risk is the suspension of production due to lack of imported raw materials and components.” Over the longer term, the inability to repair imported equipment could permanently limit growth, the report said.‘Critical Imports’“There are simply no alternative suppliers for some critical imports,” it said.Even in the farm sector, where the Kremlin has touted its efforts at replacing foreign supplies, dependence on key inputs could force Russians to reduce their food consumption as supplies dwindle, according to the report.Restrictions on access to western technology may push Russia a generation or two behind current standards as it’s forced to rely on less advanced alternatives from China and Southeast Asia.The report warns that sanctions will also force the government to revise a range of the development targets that Putin had set before the war, including those for boosting population growth and life expectancy.On a sectoral basis, the report details the breadth of the hit from sanctions:Agriculture: Fully 99% of poultry production and 30% of Holstein dairy cattle output depends on imports. Seeds for staples like sugar beets and potatoes are also mostly brought in from outside the country, as are fish feeds and aminoacids.Aviation: 95% of passenger volume is carried on foreign-made planes and the lack of access to imported spare parts could lead the fleet to shrink as they go out of serviceMachine-building: only 30% of machine tools are Russian-made and local industry doesn’t have the capacity to cover rising demandPharmaceuticals: About 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materialsTransport: EU restrictions have tripled costs for road shipmentsCommunications and IT: Restrictions on SIM cards could leave Russia short of them by 2025, while its telecommunications sector may fall five years behind world leaders in 2022.(Updates with economy minister comment in eighth paragraph.)Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2022 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading

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COMEX: Bank of America Backstops Strong Delivery Volume in Silver

As we round out August in the COMEX, gold delivery was strong and silver was dominated by the odd mechanizations of Bank of America.Gold: Current  Delivery MonthDelivery volume in the August gold contract started strong and then continued to see net new contracts delivered throughout the month with house accounts setting a record in net delivery inflows.September gold has also shown promise with First Notice showing the third highest open interest in a minor month going back to November 2020. Actual deliveries have started out slow with only 404 contracts delivered on the first day, but this could be more signs of strain in the physical market (more on this below).Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volumeThe countdown chart below shows the activity in September gold leading up to First Notice. After a dip mid-month, open interest recovered and stayed elevated into First Notice with a slight uptick on the final day.Figure: 2 Open Interest CountdownThe slight uptick can be seen more clearly in the chart below as the difference between the green bar and blue bar. Also noticeable, is the large amount of open interest still outstanding.Figure: 3 24-month delivery and first noticeThe chart below shows the percentage of contracts delivered on the very first day of delivery. As shown, only 15% of contracts were delivered on the first day which is the smallest amount going back to at least November 2019. Short contract holders dictate the delivery timing which means the shorts have delayed delivery at the outset.Figure: 4 Delivery Volume After First NoticeAre the shorts delaying delivery due to a lack of physical available? Pressure has been mounting in the physical market with massive physical withdraws from the Comex vaults. This can be seen below as 7.3M ounces of gold have left the Comex system since May 1. Inventory stood near 36M ounces on May 1, so the gold exiting represents almost 21% of total inventory in 4 months.Figure: 5 Recent Monthly Stock ChangeGold: Next Delivery MonthOctober gold is an odd month. It is ten times larger than the typical open interest seen in minor months (38k vs 3k) but is also one-tenth the size of major months which tend to be near 400k. Current open interest is almost exactly at the same spot as October 2021.Figure: 6 Open Interest CountdownMajor months have been seeing strong delivery volume in recent months with a strong trend upwards starting in October last year.Figure: 7 Historical DeliveriesFinally, the October to December spread is showing the strongest contango since at least April 2021. Contango generally signals a market that anticipates higher prices in the future.Figure: 8 SpreadsSilver: Recent Delivery MonthSeptember silver has shown a rebound from the very disappointing July. Major months have been on a steady decline since the peak in July 2020. Aside from December 2021 and March 2022, delivery volume has been on a downward trend.Figure: 9 Recent like-month delivery volumeThat being said, the countdown into close showed a very modest decline versus what is typically seen. September went from the bottom of the pack to the middle of the pack on the final day.Figure: 10 Open Interest CountdownThe final day drop can be seen as the difference between the blue and green bars below. This was the smallest drop seen going into First Notice since at least July 2020.Figure: 11 24-month delivery and first noticeUnlike gold, nearly all the open interest was delivered on the first day with only 632 contracts remaining open. Almost 90% of contracts were delivered on the first day, which towers above the second highest month in March 2020 with 73% on the first day.Figure: 12 Delivery Volume After First NoticeLooking at the bank house accounts shows that BofA is the biggest net loser of metal by far. They have delivered out 5,199 of the 5,244 (99.1%) of the contracts delivered thus far! On the flip side, the remaining house accounts have been net receivers of 3,276 ounces which is their largest inflow ever! This was driven primarily by Citigroup (2607) and Morgan Stanley (579).What is going on here? BofA has been a horrendous trader of silver over the last 9 months, accumulating when the price is high and delivering out when the price is low. BofA delivery out exceeds the final amount from December, but they also spent most of December opening net new contracts to recover the metal they delivered out on the first day and continued that activity in January.Figure: 13 House Account ActivityThe chart below shows BofA’s accumulation of silver since November 2020. As shown, they have accumulated during higher prices and sold out during lower prices. Furthermore, the current contract has wiped out nearly 85% of the total BofA house accumulation over almost two years.Figure: 14 BofA Cumulative DeliveryAdding to the murky story is the continued outflow of Registered silver. Current Registered silver represents a total of 10,130 contracts. This means that 58% of total Registered has just stood for delivery! If that metal starts to get pulled out of Registered, the stock will fall dramatically.If BofA repeats December and starts buying back metal mid-month, it’s very possible total delivery volume for September could exceed total Registered.Figure: 15 Recent Monthly Stock ChangeSilver: Next Delivery MonthOctober silver is starting off sluggish with current open interest well below average.Figure: 16 Open Interest CountdownSimilar to major months, minor months have seen a pretty steady decline downwards.Figure: 17 Historical DeliveriesAll of this is happening while the silver spot market stays in strong backwardation, indicating that the current spot metal is being valued more highly than futures contracts.Figure: 18 Spot vs FuturesWrapping upGold and silver are both showing strength this month but in different ways. Gold has seen strong open interest into the close but with a very small fraction being delivered so far. Silver showed a very small decline of open interest into First Notice, but then saw a record percentage of contracts delivered on the first day, almost entirely from BofA. The activity in BofA is potentially the biggest outlier of all the data points. It looks like they are trying to contain the market during big delivery volumes and are willing to take a loss to do so.Inventory data is also different between the two metals with gold seeing steady depletion in both Registered and Eligible where the activity in silver is concentrated in Registered falling. In both metals, Registered is falling rapidly which leads to less metal available for delivery in future months.There is no doubt that futures contracts are not capturing this movement going on under the surface. The technical picture in the paper market has been looking weak, while the physical market is showing record strength. Eventually, these two markets will converge, or else the paper market could break down. Likely, the paper market will eventually catch up to the futures market as the shorts struggle to find metal to deliver. When this happens, the movement in price could be extremely fast.Figure: 19 Annual DeliveriesData Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/Data Updated: Nightly around 11PM EasternLast Updated: Aug 30, 2022Gold and Silver interactive charts and graphs can be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/goldsilver/Get Peter Schiff’s key gold headlines in your inbox every week – click here – for a free subscription to his exclusive weekly email updates.Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today! Continue reading

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China’s gold imports from Russia surge 750% in July

(Kitco News) China has significantly stepped up its gold purchases from Russia amid a Western ban on Russian gold following its invasion of Ukraine.
China imported $108.8 million worth of Russian gold in July. That is a 750% jump from the previous month’s total of $12.7 million and an increase of 4,800% from $2.2 million reported during the same month a year ago, Russian media RBC reported citing Chinese customs data. The data listed included raw and semi-finished forms of gold.
More buying from China comes after the U.S., Britain, Canada, Japan, the EU, and Switzerland banned Russian gold exports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Earlier in August, it was reported that Russia is looking into its own international standard for precious metals after getting banned by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). And it could have a fixed price in national currencies. 
The country’s Finance Ministry said it was “critical” to create the new Moscow World Standard (MWS) to “normalize the functioning of the precious metals industry” and have an alternative to the LBMA.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the LBMA also suspended its accreditation of Russian precious metals refiners, barring them from selling new products in London. The suspension was made official on March 7.
According to the Finance Ministry, Russia was the second highest gold producer by volume in 2021, with gold output rising by 9% to 343 tons. The precious metals industry in Russia accounts for around $25 billion a year. Continue reading

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Large Commercial Traders Are Positioned for Higher Metals Prices

Physical silver bars continue to drain from COMEX and London warehouse stockpiles. Lower spot prices are contributing to this.

Larger investors who hold deliverable bars aren’t throwing in the towel and dumping them back into the market. Instead, they continue to stack, much like retail investors buying the smaller coins, rounds and bars.

An attempt by Reddit users to create a “silver squeeze” in early 2021 marked the beginning of the year-and-a-half long trend of steadily declining bar inventories. The grassroots movement was an attempt to break the crooked price discovery scheme in silver.

Buyers were encouraged to purchase silver and take possession. The hope was that the tiny inventory supporting a mountain of paper derivative metal would disappear. Shorts would have to bid more and more for available bars in order to exit their positions and end the pain.

The buzz around the “silver squeeze” faded from the headlines over a year ago, but the draining of inventory continues.

As available stocks decline, the prices paid for deliverable bars in the cash market keep getting higher versus paper silver futures.

The mismatch in prices between the two markets is way outside of normal and should serve as a warning.

Buyers are paying up to get physical metal, and they are bearing the cost of storing large bars.

So far, traders on the short side don’t seem bothered by these troubling underlying fundamentals.

The past few months have been profitable for those making leveraged bets on lower prices.

What makes this setup interesting is that it is the speculators, not the commercial banks, who are heavily short. (Perhaps traders went to the Hamptons this summer and the trading algorithms they left on autopilot aren’t programmed to watch inventory levels.)

Futures market speculators are also not too quick on the uptake — generally speaking. Bullion bankers have a long history of total domination against them in futures trading.

Normally it is bankers and commercial hedgers who are short and specs who are long. The current positioning may be backward, but you can expect the winners will be the same people – those classified as the large commercial traders.

Commercial traders tend to position themselves correctly ahead of the next trend – and right now they are positioned for the silver market to turn up. Continue reading

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The Silver Phoenix Market

The price of silver hit a peak over $26.50 on March 8. It spent about a month and a half breaking down, and then the bottom fell out. It’s currently down from that peak almost 8 bucks.

Breaking Down Fundamental Silver Prices

However, the opposite has been happening to silver’s scarcity. First, let’s look at a chart of the silver market price and the silver fundamental price.

The market price is down a lot since that peak, but the fundamental price has moved sideways (ignoring the two spurious drops) and is now the same as on March 8.

Now let’s look at what the silver basis and silver cobasis are showing.

There has been a big run up in the cobasis (i.e. the measure of scarcity), since August 8. It has hit almost zero, which is the line of demarcation of backwardation.

This chart, by the way, shows the continuous basis and cobasis. This is not the near contract (i.e. December, which hit a cobasis near 1% on Thursday). The continuous basis is a smooth 6-month average duration synthetic contract, not subject to the volatility caused by contract expiry, which often manifests as temporary backwardation.

Our remarks? We haven’t seen a cobasis like this, in at least 7 years.

LIBOR Rates and Silver

But it’s bigger than that. Much bigger. That’s because the interest rate is higher now, than it has been since November 2008. Now, LIBOR is on a tear. Then, it was collapsing.

            Source: securitybenefit.com (who uses data from the Federal Reserve System)

To carry metal, a bank’s first step is to borrows dollars. Then it buys the metal and sells it forward. So, the basis is closely tied to the interest rate (we are still using LIBOR as an indicative rate).

When the interest rate is moving, we may find it more useful or more revealing to look at a chart which takes interest rates into account. It turns out that we do have such a chart. It is the lease rate*, which is LIBOR – forward rate (forward rate is a different way of looking at the basis).

*Note: Not to be confused with Monetary Metals’ true gold and silver lease rates, which are the rates investors earn when they lease gold and silver with us.

Here is the silver lease rate graph.

The lease rate, which is another way of looking at scarcity, is higher than at any time since the thick of the global financial crisis, in October 2008.

At that point, silver was trading under $10. And 2 ½ years later, its price quintupled to about $50.

The lease rate, LIBOR – GOFO, is based on arbitrage in the commercial bullion markets, again it has nothing to do with the interest rate Monetary Metals pays silver owners on their silver.

Silver Scarcity and the Future

Will that happen again soon? We don’t know (and neither does anyone else). But we can say with certainty that its scarcity has become serious.

This could be resolved two different ways. One, there could be selling of physical metal combined with a let up in buying. Two, the price could shoot up.

We think this is a good time to place a bet on silver.

Bet or no bet though, you can always earn interest on silver, (and gold) by opening a Monetary Metals account.

We will continue to keep a close eye on silver as the current situation unfolds.

© Monetary Metals 2022 Continue reading

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Comex Update: House Accounts See Largest Net Delivery Volume on Record

August 25, 2022  by SchiffGold  0   0Gold: Recent Delivery MonthGold has seen the largest delivery volume in 2022 with 33,593 contracts delivered so far and 244 remaining in open interest. Since 2020, only December and February last year recorded larger volumes.Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volumeUnlike past months, the large volume was not really driven by mid-month net new contracts. Activity was well below recent months with only 1,935 contracts opened for immediate delivery. It should be noted that this figure was negative up to 8 days past first notice so there was definitely still strength mid-month.Figure: 2 Cumulative Net New ContractsFrom a dollar volume perspective, this month was more than $1.1B larger than last August but still well below the records from summer 2020.Figure: 3 Notional DeliveriesAnother major event this month was the record net delivery of contracts from the banks. The previous record was set in April in the wake of the Ukraine/Russia conflict. This month is nearly 30% higher with 8,340 contracts in net delivery volume. BofA is still a big player as they buy back about half of the metal they delivered out last month.Figure: 4 House Account ActivityIt’s very possible that banks are becoming more active as their inventory dwindles. As noted in the stock report, gold has been leaving Comex vaults at an unprecedented pace. While the last few days have seen inflows into Eligible, the removal from Registered is striking. Since May 1st, 4.17M ounces have left Registered. Nearly 13% of that occurred in the last two days alone as 540k ounces left (see below).Figure: 5 Recent Monthly Stock ChangeGold: Next Delivery MonthJumping ahead to September shows elevated open interest. It is currently below both March and May of this year, but those months showed exceptionally high open interest at this point in the contract. Furthermore, both March and May were influenced by the conflict in Ukraine. The elevated open interest this month does not (yet) have a clear driver.Figure: 6 Open Interest CountdownThe chart below shows deliveries for the last several minor months. Delivery volume has been quite elevated. The action in minor months can be heavily influenced by mid-month activity. Thus, regardless of the open interest at First Notice next week, it will be a few weeks before the full delivery volume will be known.Figure: 7 Historical DeliveriesSpreadsJumping out to the October contract shows the market in strong Contango, higher even than the August contract at a similar point. The current spread between October and December is nearly $10.Figure: 8 Futures SpreadsThe strong contango in the futures curve is one reason the spot market flipped from backwardation to contango at the beginning of the month (shown below). The analysis last month highlighted the market in strong backwardation for an extended period. Once August went into delivery, the futures contract went from August to October. The spot market flipped but the spread is already coming down quickly. The backwardation last month could be one reason for the heavy physical activity noted above. It will be interesting to see if the spread for October drops into negative territory over the next few weeks.Figure: 9 Spot vs FuturesSilver: Recent Delivery MonthSilver is still not seeing the same strength as gold. Delivery volume in August is the smallest for a minor month going back to January 2021. With only 74 contracts open, August will finish well below average.Figure: 10 Recent like-month delivery volumeLower mid-month activity is one reason for this drop. As shown below, only about 330 contracts were opened for immediate delivery. This is about 25% of the volume seen in February contract of this year.Figure: 11 Cumulative Net New ContractsThe banks are also not nearly as active. BofA restocked its delivery volume out last month (606 vs 600), but the other banks combined are only delivering 235 contracts this month.Figure: 12 House Account ActivityThis August will be the weakest dollar volume since August 2018 with only $105M delivered, less than half the amount from last August.Figure: 13 Notional DeliveriesOne area where silver continues to impress is the drain on Registered. Outflows continue from Registered with 2.77M ounces out on the most recent day. Registered is down more than 65% since the all-time peak in December 2020. At the current pace, Registered will be empty within a year!Figure: 14 Recent Monthly Stock ChangeSilver: Next Delivery MonthSeptember silver is starting to show signs of life! With 4 days to go, September has at least entered the pack. A lot will still happen in the next few days, but recent activity could be a good sign given where the contract stood a few weeks ago.Figure: 15 Open Interest CountdownLast month finished quite weak so it would be good to see a turnaround.Figure: 16 Historical DeliveriesThe market is still in strong contango but has been dipping down as the contract approaches First Notice.Figure: 17 Roll CostWhile the futures market remains in contango, the spot market is in solid backwardation. The market is in the strongest backwardation since silver first saw its massive price spike back in summer 2020.Figure: 18 Spot vs FuturesWrapping upThe gold price clearly does not reflect all the activity going on under the surface. The demand for physical is really starting to materialize with no clear catalyst (e.g., Covid lockdowns or Ukraine/Russia war). The Comex data is important because it will likely be the first place to show stress in the gold/silver market.The price is currently contained by an unlimited paper supply that can always be created to meet paper demand. The COTs report shows that this isn’t even needed as Managed Money has gone cold on gold. Things start to change when physical supply cannot be found to meet physical demand. The data is pointing to this as a real possibility in both gold and silver. The outflow of metal combined with the increased delivery volume in gold points to something happening underneath the surface while the paper futures market still plays the same old game. Buckle up! Things could get very interesting in the months ahead!Figure: 19 Annual DeliveriesData Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/Data Updated: Nightly around 11PM EasternLast Updated: Aug 24, 2022Gold and Silver interactive charts and graphs can be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/goldsilver/Get Peter Schiff’s key gold headlines in your inbox every week – click here – for a free subscription to his exclusive weekly email updates.Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today! Continue reading

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Gold price would be $150 higher if not for the U.S. dollar – Wells Fargo

(Kitco News) The U.S. dollar has been the main culprit holding gold back this summer, but Wells Fargo still projects the precious metal to end the year above $2,000 an ounce.
Despite this week’s gains, gold is still trading below $1,800 an ounce as markets await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading just above the $1,752 an ounce level, up 0.22% on the day.
If not for the U.S. dollar index at 20-year highs, gold would be around $150 higher than its current trading levels, Wells Fargo’s real asset strategy head John LaForge told Kitco News.
“I’m still shocked that gold doesn’t want to move. The U.S. dollar is what’s holding gold back. Gold would have been closer to $1,900 if not for the move in the dollar,” LaForge said on Wednesday. “Gold is still that chameleon asset. For six months, it’s moving with real rates. And just when you figured that out, it’s moving with the dollar. And just when you figure that out, it’s moving with some crisis. For something so muted, it’s amazing how often it switches teams.”
Wells Fargo’s year-end target remains $2,000- $2,100 an ounce, but if the U.S. dollar keeps surprising on the upside, that target could be unachievable.
Over the summer, the dollar has become the popular safe-haven play as other economies struggle with more problematic inflation and growth concerns. And the U.S. dollar could hold on to its strength for the next six months, according to LaForge.
“Our base case is that the U.S. will enter a recession somewhere in October or November, which will last until the middle of next year. Typically the dollar loses strength when signals say we are coming out of recession. So, if our base case is correct, you could see the dollar start acting weaker in Q1 of next year in anticipation of that,” he described.
Until then, the dollar will keep acting as that defensive asset.
For gold, a recession doesn’t necessarily mean a bad thing. But it all depends on the kind of recession the U.S. will see. A mild one could be beneficial for the gold price, LaForge noted.
On the inflation side, Wells Fargo does not see price pressures falling back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Longer-term inflation looks closer to 3%-4%.
Following Jackson Hole and the Fed’s September meeting, the U.S. central bank will stick to much more measured rate hikes of around 50 basis points, following a set of 75-basis-point jumps. But its overall priority will remain with battling inflation, LaForge said.
“They are not going to change much. You might hear a word or two at Jackson Hole. But no doubt that the number one concern will be inflation. We only had one print that showed that maybe we peaked,” he stated.
Another asset play on LaForge’s radar is the crypto space after its fourth bear market. “I’d argue we reached the point with crypto where it has matured enough to prove there is value there,” he said.
The last major speed bump for this market is regulation. And that could clear up within the next year, which will impact the price. “At this juncture, regulation is the number one thing. There are systems that the government wants to control. And money is a big one. There’s a bit of a fight going on,” LaForge said.
Regulation needs to be light enough to allow critical characteristics like independence and decentralization to remain at the core of crypto.
“What’s looming in the next couple of years is the government coming in and regulating. The question is, how much? Do they take a light-glove approach as they did with the internet or a heavy-handed one? You have the example of the internet being regulated lightly. But that was with information and communications, which is important, but arguably not as important as money,” LaForge highlighted. “If regulation is light-gloved, this is a whole new asset class. And we’ll know that within the next year, and we’ll start seeing it in the price.” Continue reading

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A euro is worth less than a dollar for the first time in 20 years. What does that mean?

The euro has dived to its lowest level against the dollar in 20 years, underlining the sense of foreboding in the 19 European countries that use it. (Michael Probst / Associated Press)The euro has fallen below parity with the dollar, diving to its lowest level in 20 years and ending a one-to-one exchange rate with the U.S. currency.It’s a psychological barrier in the markets, and the slide in values underlines the sense of foreboding in the 19 European countries that use the euro as they struggle with an energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.Here’s why the euro’s slide is happening and what impact it could have:What does euro and dollar parity mean?It means the European and U.S. currencies are worth the same amount. While constantly changing, the euro has dropped just below a value of $1 this week.A currency’s exchange rate can be seen as a judgment on economic prospects, and Europe’s have been fading. Expectations that the economy would see a rebound after turning the corner from the COVID-19 pandemic have been replaced by recession predictions.More than anything, high energy prices and record inflation are to blame. Europe is far more dependent on Russian oil and natural gas than the United States to keep industry humming and generate electricity. Fears that the war in Ukraine will lead to a loss of Russian oil on global markets have pushed oil prices higher. And Russia has been cutting back natural gas supplies to the European Union, which EU leaders describe as retaliation for sanctions on Russia and weapons deliveries to Ukraine.Energy prices have driven inflation in the Eurozone to a record 8.9% in July, making everything from groceries to utility bills more expensive. They also have raised fears about governments needing to ration natural gas to industries such as steel, glassmaking and agriculture if Russia further reduces or shuts off the gas taps completely.The sense of doom increased as Russia reduced the flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to 20% of capacity and said it would shut it down for three days next week for “routine maintenance” at a compressor station.Natural gas prices on Europe’s TTF benchmark have soared to record highs amid dwindling supplies, fears of further cutoffs and strong demand.“If you think Euro at parity is cheap, think again,” Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance banking trade group, tweeted Monday. “German manufacturing lost access to cheap Russian energy & thus its competitive edge.”“Global recession is coming,” he said in a second tweet.When was the last time a euro was worth less than a dollar?The euro was last valued below $1 on July 15, 2002.The European currency hit its all-time high of $1.18 shortly after its launch on Jan. 1, 1999, but then began a long slide, falling through the $1 mark in February 2000 and hitting a record low of 82.3 cents in October 2000. It rose above parity in 2002 as large trade deficits and accounting scandals on Wall Street weighed on the dollar.Then as now, what appears to be a euro story is also in many ways a dollar story. That’s because the U.S. dollar is still the world’s dominant currency for trade and central bank reserves. And the dollar has been hitting 20-year highs against the currencies of its major trading partners, not just the euro.The dollar is also benefiting from its status as a haven for investors in times of uncertainty.Why is the euro falling?Many analysts attribute the euro’s slide to expectations of rapid interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve to combat inflation at close to 40-year highs.As the Fed raises interest rates, the rates on interest-bearing investments tend to rise as well. If the Fed raises rates more than the European Central Bank, higher interest returns will attract investor money from euros into dollar-denominated investments. Those investors will have to sell euros and buy dollars to buy those holdings. That drives the euro down and the dollar up.Last month, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years by a larger-than-expected half-percentage point. It is expected to add another increase in September. But if the economy sinks into recession, that could halt the European Central Bank’s series of rate increases.Meanwhile, the U.S. economy looks more robust, meaning the Fed could go on tightening — and widen the rate gap.Who wins?American tourists in Europe will find cheaper hotel and restaurant bills and admission tickets. The weaker euro could make European export goods more competitive on price in the United States. The U.S. and the EU are major trade partners, so the exchange rate shift will get noticed.In the U.S., a stronger dollar means lower prices on imported goods — from cars and computers to toys and medical equipment — which could help moderate inflation.Who loses?American companies that do a lot of business in Europe will see the revenue from those businesses shrink when and if they bring those earnings back to the United States. If euro earnings remain in Europe to cover costs there, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue.A key worry for the United States is that a stronger dollar makes U.S.-made products more expensive in overseas markets, widening the trade deficit and reducing economic output, while giving foreign products a price edge in the United States.A weaker euro can be a headache for the European Central Bank because it can mean higher prices for imported goods, particularly oil, which is priced in dollars. The ECB is already being pulled in different directions: It is raising interest rates, the typical medicine for inflation, but higher rates also can slow economic growth.This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times. Continue reading

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Is ‘something worse’ than a recession coming? Jamie Dimon issues warning as JPMorgan sees Fed’s last big rate hike in September

(Kitco News) With all eyes set on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, JPMorgan expects the next rate increase to be the last big hike of the tightening cycle. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also warns that “something worse” than a recession could be coming.
The last time the Fed could surprise markets with an oversized rate hike would be at its upcoming September meeting, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a note Monday.
“We expect another outsized Fed hike in September, but post that, we would look for the Fed not to surprise the markets on the hawkish side again,” they wrote strategists.
The end of the aggressive tightening pace could help risk-on assets recover during the second half of the year.
In the meantime, Dimon shared his outlook on the economy in a client call earlier in August. And it was quite uncertain.
“What is out there? There are storm clouds. Rates, QT, oil, Ukraine, war, China. If I had to put odds: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%. Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something worse at 20% to 30%,” Dimon explained. “It is a bad mistake to say ‘here is my single point forecast.'”
Goldman Sachs also shared its take on the impact of global monetary policy tightening in a note Monday, stating that major economies won’t experience recessions over the next 12 months.
“Their resilience supports our forecast that no major economy will enter a monetary policy-driven recession over the next year,” economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in the note. “Coupled with the persistence in inflation and its drivers, this resilience suggests some upside risk to terminal rates among the later hikers relative to current market pricing.”
One of the reasons behind the forecast is the state of the labor markets, which are still going strong.
This week’s big catalyst is Fed Chair Powell’s keynote at the Jackson Hole titled ‘Economic Outlook,’ which is scheduled for Friday.
Markets remain divided on whether the Fed will hike rates by 50 or 75 basis points at its September meeting. The CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 56.5% probability of a 50bps hike and a 43.5% chance of a 75bps increase.
The FOMC meeting minutes from July showed that Fed officials agree on the need to slow down the tightening cycle eventually. Still, they believe the Fed needs to see how its rate hikes impact inflation. Continue reading

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Silver to face a supply crunch coupled with a demand surge; in 10 years, no investment will be better than silver – David Morgan

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Silver supplies will be depleted and industrial demand will “suck up all the silver that’s available,” over the next ten years, causing silver prices to rise, and making it the best investment in decades, according to David Morgan, Founder and Author of The Morgan Report.

“If you’ve got a long time horizon, like ten years or more, I can’t think of something that would be better than a silver investment,” he said. “Silver will shine at some point… but it’s probably going to take a natural corner… a natural corner is when industry alone sucks up all the silver that’s available and there isn’t any left.”

Morgan told David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News, that the silver supply could run out within a few decades.

“The [U.S. Geological Survey] said that silver would be the first element on the periodic table that would be in such short supply, and that was a few years back,” he said. “Just the industrial side alone is probably going to take all the silver available at some point in time.”

Supply Crunch

Commodities like base metals have fallen in price over the year, with copper down 18.4 percent and lead down 8.3 percent. Morgan suggested that silver, which is often a biproduct of base metal mining, will suffer supply-wise from a fall in the price of base metals, since there would be less incentive to mine.

“Seventy-percent of silver is a result of base metal mining,” he explained. “If that is down, and down noticeably, then that takes a great deal of silver supply off the market.”

Morgan stated that rising energy costs would limit silver mining as the world’s oil reserves are depleted.

“We are at, or maybe just past, the energy cliff,” he said. “I’m a big believer in the peak oil situation. What we’re seeing is inefficiencies in the fracking sector. There are very few places that fracking makes sense from an economic standpoint. And then you’re seeing depletion that’s taking place rapidly throughout different parts of the world… that means higher oil prices.”

Demand Surge

Pointing to growing industrial usage of silver, in areas from photovoltaics to semiconductors, Morgan said that applications of silver in industry will continue to grow, squeezing the available stock.

“The Silver Institute put on their pie chart that the solar uses in 2019 was about 9 percent of the silver industry, and now it’s probably around twelve, and that’s going to continue to increase,” he said. “You may recall that there was a statement made by the U.S. Mint that there was a worldwide silver shortage, and that came from the Mint Master of the U.S. Mint. He quickly retracted that statement. I don’t think there is a worldwide silver shortage. It’s just that if you look at what the mint is producing now, they’re not able to keep up with demand whatsoever.”

Morgan added that there are no good industrial substitutes for silver.

“Nothing reflects light as well as silver, and nothing conducts electricity as well as silver,” he said. “Most silver applications are absolutely essential and irreplaceable. There is no substitute.”

To find out Morgan’s short-term price target for silver, watch the video above.

Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV

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Which Countries Own the Most Gold?

August 18, 2022  by SchiffGold  0   0On net, central banks globally have been adding gold to their reserves. Through the first half of 2022, central banks expanded gold holdings by 270 tons.National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński summed up the reason central banks hold gold. Gold is the ‘most reserve’ of reserve assets: it diversifies the geopolitical risk and is a kind of anchor of trust, especially in times of tension and crises.”A spokesperson from the Hungarian central bank said gold increase financial stability and strengthens market confidence. In keeping with the historical role of gold, it remains one of the safest instruments in the world, which, even under normal market conditions, exposes its stability and confidence.”The Polish central bank has been one of the big buyers in recent years, along with Hungary, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and India.So, which countries hold the most gold?Here are the top 20 gold hoarders in the world based on the most recent data from the World Gold Council.The United States. – 8,133.5 tonsGermany – 3,355.1 tonsItaly – 2,451.8 tonsFrance – 2436.6 tonsRussia – 2298.5 tonsChina – 1948.3 tonsSwitzerland – 1,040.0 tonsJapan – 846.0 tonsIndia – 768.8 tonsThe Netherlands – 612.5 tonsTurkey – 457.7 tonsTaiwan – 423.6 tonsKazakhstan – 383.9 tonsPortugal – 382.6 tonsUzbekistan – 363.9 tonsSaudi Arabia – 323.1 tonsUnited Kingdom – 310.3 tonsLebanon – 286.8 tonsSpain – 281.6 tonsAustria – 280.0 tonsThe IMF holds 2,814.0 tons of gold. It would rank third in the world if it were a country. The European Central Bank holds 504.8 tons of gold, ranking it 12th among countries.Get Peter Schiff’s key gold headlines in your inbox every week – click here – for a free subscription to his exclusive weekly email updates.Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today! Continue reading

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Zimbabwe pushes on with its ‘gold plan’ to fight inflation, offers miners incentives to beat production targets

(Kitco News) Zimbabwe, which has been trying to tame inflation by selling gold coins, is now going a step further. It wants to incentivize the nation’s biggest gold miners to produce above the state-planned targets.
Back in July, Zimbabwe’s central bank started selling gold coins to get inflation under control by providing a store of value to the country’s plunging currency and giving the population an alternative to the U.S. dollar.
One week after kickoff, the country saw strong demand, with the country’s central bank selling 1,500 gold coins and planning to release 2,000 more. 
Large miners are now being encouraged by the government to produce more gold. And those who exceed their targets can receive 80% of the payment for the additional output in foreign currency, Bloomberg quoted Deputy Mines Minister Polite Kambamura as saying. The current payment plan is a 60-40 split between foreign and local currency payments.
The country’s gold miners see a larger share of foreign currency earnings as a benefit to sustain their operation costs. Gold exports are currently the third top foreign currency earner, followed by platinum and remittances.
To help the mining industry out, Zimbabwe has selected two local lenders to provide $1 billion worth of funding over the next five years.
Production increases are already being planned by some gold miners, including state-owned Kuvimba Mining House Ltd., which is looking into a fivefold increase in production at its Shamva Gold mine by 2023.
Zimbabwe’s gold output is already up 47% this year, with the government looking for gold mining to account for a third of 2023’s overall mining industry targeted $12 billion revenue, according to Kambamura.
The deal with gold coins
The gold coins being minted and sold by the central bank are one troy ounce 22-carat gold coins called ‘Mosi-Oa-Tunya.’ The name means “Smoke that Thunders,” referencing Victoria falls. Each gold coin has a serial number and can be purchased with local currency, the U.S. dollar, and other foreign currencies.
The price is set based on the international price of gold and production costs. The owners of the gold coins can convert them into cash or trade them whenever needed. The gold coins could also be used for transactional purposes and as a security for loans.
The government’s plan is to use these coins to lower the demand for U.S. dollars following the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar. Surging inflation and currency devaluation have made things difficult for Zimbabwe’s population. The country’s annual inflation surged 256.9% in July from 191.6% the previous month.
In response to the crisis, Zimbabwe’s central bank was forced to more than double its policy rate from 80% to 200%, a new record.
Zimbabwe also announced plans to adopt the U.S. dollar as legal tender for the next five years to stabilize the country’s exchange rate. But there is a severe shortage of dollars. This is the second time in more than a decade that Zimbabwe is legalizing the greenback as legal tender. Continue reading

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