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- Silver Demand Surging, Supply Stalling: The Case For A Continued Bull Market - Seeking Alpha July 8, 2025
- Central banks support gold; silver ETFs surge; platinum faces cost and trade challenges – report - Mining Weekly July 8, 2025
- Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hesitates below $37.00 with downside attempts finding buyers - FXStreet July 8, 2025
- Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: XAU Eyes $3,345 as XAG Targets $37.06 Breakout - FXEmpire July 8, 2025
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Category Archives: Silver
A euro is worth less than a dollar for the first time in 20 years. What does that mean?
The euro has dived to its lowest level against the dollar in 20 years, underlining the sense of foreboding in the 19 European countries that use it. (Michael Probst / Associated Press)The euro has fallen below parity with the dollar, diving to its lowest level in 20 years and ending a one-to-one exchange rate with the U.S. currency.It’s a psychological barrier in the markets, and the slide in values underlines the sense of foreboding in the 19 European countries that use the euro as they struggle with an energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.Here’s why the euro’s slide is happening and what impact it could have:What does euro and dollar parity mean?It means the European and U.S. currencies are worth the same amount. While constantly changing, the euro has dropped just below a value of $1 this week.A currency’s exchange rate can be seen as a judgment on economic prospects, and Europe’s have been fading. Expectations that the economy would see a rebound after turning the corner from the COVID-19 pandemic have been replaced by recession predictions.More than anything, high energy prices and record inflation are to blame. Europe is far more dependent on Russian oil and natural gas than the United States to keep industry humming and generate electricity. Fears that the war in Ukraine will lead to a loss of Russian oil on global markets have pushed oil prices higher. And Russia has been cutting back natural gas supplies to the European Union, which EU leaders describe as retaliation for sanctions on Russia and weapons deliveries to Ukraine.Energy prices have driven inflation in the Eurozone to a record 8.9% in July, making everything from groceries to utility bills more expensive. They also have raised fears about governments needing to ration natural gas to industries such as steel, glassmaking and agriculture if Russia further reduces or shuts off the gas taps completely.The sense of doom increased as Russia reduced the flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to 20% of capacity and said it would shut it down for three days next week for “routine maintenance” at a compressor station.Natural gas prices on Europe’s TTF benchmark have soared to record highs amid dwindling supplies, fears of further cutoffs and strong demand.“If you think Euro at parity is cheap, think again,” Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance banking trade group, tweeted Monday. “German manufacturing lost access to cheap Russian energy & thus its competitive edge.”“Global recession is coming,” he said in a second tweet.When was the last time a euro was worth less than a dollar?The euro was last valued below $1 on July 15, 2002.The European currency hit its all-time high of $1.18 shortly after its launch on Jan. 1, 1999, but then began a long slide, falling through the $1 mark in February 2000 and hitting a record low of 82.3 cents in October 2000. It rose above parity in 2002 as large trade deficits and accounting scandals on Wall Street weighed on the dollar.Then as now, what appears to be a euro story is also in many ways a dollar story. That’s because the U.S. dollar is still the world’s dominant currency for trade and central bank reserves. And the dollar has been hitting 20-year highs against the currencies of its major trading partners, not just the euro.The dollar is also benefiting from its status as a haven for investors in times of uncertainty.Why is the euro falling?Many analysts attribute the euro’s slide to expectations of rapid interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve to combat inflation at close to 40-year highs.As the Fed raises interest rates, the rates on interest-bearing investments tend to rise as well. If the Fed raises rates more than the European Central Bank, higher interest returns will attract investor money from euros into dollar-denominated investments. Those investors will have to sell euros and buy dollars to buy those holdings. That drives the euro down and the dollar up.Last month, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years by a larger-than-expected half-percentage point. It is expected to add another increase in September. But if the economy sinks into recession, that could halt the European Central Bank’s series of rate increases.Meanwhile, the U.S. economy looks more robust, meaning the Fed could go on tightening — and widen the rate gap.Who wins?American tourists in Europe will find cheaper hotel and restaurant bills and admission tickets. The weaker euro could make European export goods more competitive on price in the United States. The U.S. and the EU are major trade partners, so the exchange rate shift will get noticed.In the U.S., a stronger dollar means lower prices on imported goods — from cars and computers to toys and medical equipment — which could help moderate inflation.Who loses?American companies that do a lot of business in Europe will see the revenue from those businesses shrink when and if they bring those earnings back to the United States. If euro earnings remain in Europe to cover costs there, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue.A key worry for the United States is that a stronger dollar makes U.S.-made products more expensive in overseas markets, widening the trade deficit and reducing economic output, while giving foreign products a price edge in the United States.A weaker euro can be a headache for the European Central Bank because it can mean higher prices for imported goods, particularly oil, which is priced in dollars. The ECB is already being pulled in different directions: It is raising interest rates, the typical medicine for inflation, but higher rates also can slow economic growth.This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times. Continue reading
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Is ‘something worse’ than a recession coming? Jamie Dimon issues warning as JPMorgan sees Fed’s last big rate hike in September
(Kitco News) With all eyes set on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, JPMorgan expects the next rate increase to be the last big hike of the tightening cycle. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also warns that “something worse” than a recession could be coming.
The last time the Fed could surprise markets with an oversized rate hike would be at its upcoming September meeting, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a note Monday.
“We expect another outsized Fed hike in September, but post that, we would look for the Fed not to surprise the markets on the hawkish side again,” they wrote strategists.
The end of the aggressive tightening pace could help risk-on assets recover during the second half of the year.
In the meantime, Dimon shared his outlook on the economy in a client call earlier in August. And it was quite uncertain.
“What is out there? There are storm clouds. Rates, QT, oil, Ukraine, war, China. If I had to put odds: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%. Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something worse at 20% to 30%,” Dimon explained. “It is a bad mistake to say ‘here is my single point forecast.'”
Goldman Sachs also shared its take on the impact of global monetary policy tightening in a note Monday, stating that major economies won’t experience recessions over the next 12 months.
“Their resilience supports our forecast that no major economy will enter a monetary policy-driven recession over the next year,” economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in the note. “Coupled with the persistence in inflation and its drivers, this resilience suggests some upside risk to terminal rates among the later hikers relative to current market pricing.”
One of the reasons behind the forecast is the state of the labor markets, which are still going strong.
This week’s big catalyst is Fed Chair Powell’s keynote at the Jackson Hole titled ‘Economic Outlook,’ which is scheduled for Friday.
Markets remain divided on whether the Fed will hike rates by 50 or 75 basis points at its September meeting. The CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 56.5% probability of a 50bps hike and a 43.5% chance of a 75bps increase.
The FOMC meeting minutes from July showed that Fed officials agree on the need to slow down the tightening cycle eventually. Still, they believe the Fed needs to see how its rate hikes impact inflation. Continue reading
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Silver to face a supply crunch coupled with a demand surge; in 10 years, no investment will be better than silver – David Morgan
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Silver supplies will be depleted and industrial demand will “suck up all the silver that’s available,” over the next ten years, causing silver prices to rise, and making it the best investment in decades, according to David Morgan, Founder and Author of The Morgan Report.
“If you’ve got a long time horizon, like ten years or more, I can’t think of something that would be better than a silver investment,” he said. “Silver will shine at some point… but it’s probably going to take a natural corner… a natural corner is when industry alone sucks up all the silver that’s available and there isn’t any left.”
Morgan told David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News, that the silver supply could run out within a few decades.
“The [U.S. Geological Survey] said that silver would be the first element on the periodic table that would be in such short supply, and that was a few years back,” he said. “Just the industrial side alone is probably going to take all the silver available at some point in time.”
Supply Crunch
Commodities like base metals have fallen in price over the year, with copper down 18.4 percent and lead down 8.3 percent. Morgan suggested that silver, which is often a biproduct of base metal mining, will suffer supply-wise from a fall in the price of base metals, since there would be less incentive to mine.
“Seventy-percent of silver is a result of base metal mining,” he explained. “If that is down, and down noticeably, then that takes a great deal of silver supply off the market.”
Morgan stated that rising energy costs would limit silver mining as the world’s oil reserves are depleted.
“We are at, or maybe just past, the energy cliff,” he said. “I’m a big believer in the peak oil situation. What we’re seeing is inefficiencies in the fracking sector. There are very few places that fracking makes sense from an economic standpoint. And then you’re seeing depletion that’s taking place rapidly throughout different parts of the world… that means higher oil prices.”
Demand Surge
Pointing to growing industrial usage of silver, in areas from photovoltaics to semiconductors, Morgan said that applications of silver in industry will continue to grow, squeezing the available stock.
“The Silver Institute put on their pie chart that the solar uses in 2019 was about 9 percent of the silver industry, and now it’s probably around twelve, and that’s going to continue to increase,” he said. “You may recall that there was a statement made by the U.S. Mint that there was a worldwide silver shortage, and that came from the Mint Master of the U.S. Mint. He quickly retracted that statement. I don’t think there is a worldwide silver shortage. It’s just that if you look at what the mint is producing now, they’re not able to keep up with demand whatsoever.”
Morgan added that there are no good industrial substitutes for silver.
“Nothing reflects light as well as silver, and nothing conducts electricity as well as silver,” he said. “Most silver applications are absolutely essential and irreplaceable. There is no substitute.”
To find out Morgan’s short-term price target for silver, watch the video above.
Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV
Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW Continue reading
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Which Countries Own the Most Gold?
August 18, 2022 by SchiffGold 0 0On net, central banks globally have been adding gold to their reserves. Through the first half of 2022, central banks expanded gold holdings by 270 tons.National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński summed up the reason central banks hold gold. Gold is the ‘most reserve’ of reserve assets: it diversifies the geopolitical risk and is a kind of anchor of trust, especially in times of tension and crises.”A spokesperson from the Hungarian central bank said gold increase financial stability and strengthens market confidence. In keeping with the historical role of gold, it remains one of the safest instruments in the world, which, even under normal market conditions, exposes its stability and confidence.”The Polish central bank has been one of the big buyers in recent years, along with Hungary, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and India.So, which countries hold the most gold?Here are the top 20 gold hoarders in the world based on the most recent data from the World Gold Council.The United States. – 8,133.5 tonsGermany – 3,355.1 tonsItaly – 2,451.8 tonsFrance – 2436.6 tonsRussia – 2298.5 tonsChina – 1948.3 tonsSwitzerland – 1,040.0 tonsJapan – 846.0 tonsIndia – 768.8 tonsThe Netherlands – 612.5 tonsTurkey – 457.7 tonsTaiwan – 423.6 tonsKazakhstan – 383.9 tonsPortugal – 382.6 tonsUzbekistan – 363.9 tonsSaudi Arabia – 323.1 tonsUnited Kingdom – 310.3 tonsLebanon – 286.8 tonsSpain – 281.6 tonsAustria – 280.0 tonsThe IMF holds 2,814.0 tons of gold. It would rank third in the world if it were a country. The European Central Bank holds 504.8 tons of gold, ranking it 12th among countries.Get Peter Schiff’s key gold headlines in your inbox every week – click here – for a free subscription to his exclusive weekly email updates.Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today! Continue reading
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Zimbabwe pushes on with its ‘gold plan’ to fight inflation, offers miners incentives to beat production targets
(Kitco News) Zimbabwe, which has been trying to tame inflation by selling gold coins, is now going a step further. It wants to incentivize the nation’s biggest gold miners to produce above the state-planned targets.
Back in July, Zimbabwe’s central bank started selling gold coins to get inflation under control by providing a store of value to the country’s plunging currency and giving the population an alternative to the U.S. dollar.
One week after kickoff, the country saw strong demand, with the country’s central bank selling 1,500 gold coins and planning to release 2,000 more.
Large miners are now being encouraged by the government to produce more gold. And those who exceed their targets can receive 80% of the payment for the additional output in foreign currency, Bloomberg quoted Deputy Mines Minister Polite Kambamura as saying. The current payment plan is a 60-40 split between foreign and local currency payments.
The country’s gold miners see a larger share of foreign currency earnings as a benefit to sustain their operation costs. Gold exports are currently the third top foreign currency earner, followed by platinum and remittances.
To help the mining industry out, Zimbabwe has selected two local lenders to provide $1 billion worth of funding over the next five years.
Production increases are already being planned by some gold miners, including state-owned Kuvimba Mining House Ltd., which is looking into a fivefold increase in production at its Shamva Gold mine by 2023.
Zimbabwe’s gold output is already up 47% this year, with the government looking for gold mining to account for a third of 2023’s overall mining industry targeted $12 billion revenue, according to Kambamura.
The deal with gold coins
The gold coins being minted and sold by the central bank are one troy ounce 22-carat gold coins called ‘Mosi-Oa-Tunya.’ The name means “Smoke that Thunders,” referencing Victoria falls. Each gold coin has a serial number and can be purchased with local currency, the U.S. dollar, and other foreign currencies.
The price is set based on the international price of gold and production costs. The owners of the gold coins can convert them into cash or trade them whenever needed. The gold coins could also be used for transactional purposes and as a security for loans.
The government’s plan is to use these coins to lower the demand for U.S. dollars following the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar. Surging inflation and currency devaluation have made things difficult for Zimbabwe’s population. The country’s annual inflation surged 256.9% in July from 191.6% the previous month.
In response to the crisis, Zimbabwe’s central bank was forced to more than double its policy rate from 80% to 200%, a new record.
Zimbabwe also announced plans to adopt the U.S. dollar as legal tender for the next five years to stabilize the country’s exchange rate. But there is a severe shortage of dollars. This is the second time in more than a decade that Zimbabwe is legalizing the greenback as legal tender. Continue reading
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