Category Archives: Investment

(Bloomberg) — Copper (HG=F) rose to a three-month high on an ongoing supply squeeze and as risk sentiment improved due … Continue reading →

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies during a House Financial Services Committee hearing on “The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report” on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on June 24, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would have easier monetary policy by now if not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan.
When asked during a panel if the Fed would have lowered rates again by now had Trump not announced his controversial plan for levies on many foreign trading partners earlier this year, Powell said, “I think that’s right.”

“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell added at the event, which took place during a European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal. Continue reading →

Excerpt from: Technical Scoop: Shakedown Collapses, Unsustainable Sharpness, Impending Worst

Source: www.stockcharts.com

It wasn’t a good week for the gold bugs. Peace was established, for the moment, in the Middle East. The Fed kept rates unchanged, as we all expected. But that was not overly friendly for gold. Of bigger interest is the ongoing fight between Trump and Powell. If Trump gets his way for the Fed to cut rates up to 2.5%, gold would likely soar. Nonetheless, this past week gold was weak because of peace, no rate cuts, and the stock market up yet again. The US$ Index fell. Gold would normally go up when that happens. Not this time. Both gold and the US$ Index fell. A divergence?

On the week, gold fell 2.8% while silver was down 0.2%. Another divergence as silver showed stronger. But the real star has been the ongoing rise/recovery of platinum (also known as “white gold”) that was up again by 5.9% to fresh 52-week highs. Helping platinum were power shortages in South Africa where 70% of the global supply comes from. Also, there was good demand for platinum, particularly in the automobile industry. Green energy is also fuel for platinum. On the other hand, palladium fell 6.7%, helped by increasing supply. Palladium has been moving from undersupplied to oversupplied. Copper, which is often a leader for gold rose 4.8% to close over $5. Tariff threats helped copper, along with tightening supply. There have also been disruptions to supply out of China. Copper is heavily used in green energy and EVs.

Gold broke support, suggesting now that it could fall to $3,150, the next good support. Major support is way down around $2,900. We are still questioning as to whether this is an E wave to an ABCDE-type correction that got underway with the high at $3,500. That correction back in October/December saw gold fall just over 9%. A comparable decline today would take gold to $3,185, close to our $3,150 support. Lots of things could reverse gold back to the upside, including the war in the Middle East resuming or the public fight between Trump and Powell intensifying, causing nervous investors to run to safe havens such as gold. New highs above $3,500 would end discussions of a decline for gold. Gold still remains bullish. But it must work through this correction. Again, this should be the last wave down of the pattern. July lows are not unusual for gold.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

If there is something positive to say about silver, it’s that while silver fell this past week, it outperformed gold. Silver fell 0.2%. Gold fell 2.8%. Earlier, silver had moved forward, breaking above $36 and making 52-week highs. Gold did rebound at that time but failed to take out the old high of $3,500. It’s an ongoing divergence. We’d like to say the divergence is in favour of silver. If that’s correct, then new highs for both should occur when this current correction is over. The fear right now is whether that breakout over $36 is a false move. We didn’t get substantially above to help suggest this was a good move. Now a break back under $35 could end the magic and turn silver down once again. Yes, there is good support down to $32, but we’d prefer not to see that. Under $32 silver is in more trouble. Under $31.50 we could test those last lows at $28.45. We keep hearing silver is about to explode to the upside. The problem is we’ve been hearing that for some time now and we’re still waiting. The breakout target is $44. But to realize that, we need to recover soon and see new highs above $37.30 the high so far. Indicators are for the most part neutral here.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

We can’t say we were surprised at the drop in the gold stocks this past week. The chart had been looking a bit iffy as we noted the previous week. Now the question is, how deep will the correction be? On the week, the TSX Gold Index (TGD) fell 3.8% while the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was down 3.5%. The worst day was Friday, June 27 when the index fell 3.7%. We can see support for the TGD down to 470, but under that the correction could be steeper. After all, the TGD is up 43.8% on the year and the HUI up 47.7%. So, at best, profit-taking is not unusual. But, as we noted with gold itself, we don’t believe the bull is over. For the TGD we’d have to break back under 412. But we can’t dismiss a possible correction not dissimilar to that October to December decline when the TGD fell 20%. A comparable move now would be a decline to 414 which, coincidently, is just above the 412 point we noted. To put the bull back in place we’d have to break above 520.0. After that low in December, the potential for the TGD was a rise to just over 500. We accomplished that and exceeded it. The trend remains up as long as we hold above 465/470. Under that level, the trend would be weakened and set us up for a steeper correction. Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Shakedown Collapses, Unsustainable Sharpness, Impending Worst

DisclaimerDavid Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

Silver and platinum rallies could falter in Q3, gold loses ground on renewed risk appetite – Heraeus | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

US dollar background by Iluhanos via iStock The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.20% and posted a 3-1/4 year … Continue reading →

Gold gains on weaker dollar, rising from a one-month low early Monday as the dollar index weakened, though lessening haven … Continue reading →

Summary The Silver/Gold ratio is signaling strong potential for a resumption in the short-term rally in commodities, but not a … Continue reading →

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell now heads into his next challenge: a potential threat that President Donald Trump could undermine his authority by soon naming his pick to head the central bank.
In the wake of the intense criticism, Wall Street has been buzzing over the potential for a “shadow chair,” or someone Trump could install as a central bank gadfly until Powell’s term expires.
A report indicated that Trump is considering naming the successor sooner than expected in an attempt to influence interest rate policy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs during a hearing to “examine the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress” on Captiol Hill on June 25, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Kent Nishimura | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mostly breezed through two hearings on Capitol Hill this week but now heads into a much bigger challenge: a potential threat that President Donald Trump could undermine his authority by soon naming his pick to head the central bank next year.
As Powell testified Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee, holding generally cordial exchanges with lawmakers, Trump was at the NATO summit in The Hague lobbing his latest attacks on a man he had nominated for the Fed job nearly eight years ago.

“I think he’s terrible,” Trump said when asked during a news conference about his intentions for the next Fed leader. Trump then called Powell a “very average mentally person,” adding he has “a low IQ for what he does” and is “a very political guy.”
“I think he is a very stupid person, actually,” Trump said.
While Trump’s name-calling of Powell isn’t particularly new, the words now could signal action.

Potential candidates

In the wake of the intense criticism, Wall Street has been buzzing over the potential for a “shadow chair,” or someone Trump could install as a central bank gadfly until Powell’s term expires in May 2026.
The talk has impacted markets: Traders on Thursday accelerated bets on rate cuts this year, with three reductions now at about a 60% odds, compared to a strong likelihood of two just a few days ago, according to CME Group data. Treasury yields tumbled at the shorter end of the curve, which is where the Fed has its influence, falling much more than those at the long end. The dollar also was down sharply against its global counterparts.

Trump confirmed that he has a list of potential Powell successors down to “three or four people,” without naming the finalists.
The cadre of potential candidates has become familiar: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and as a dark horse in-house pick Christopher Waller, who is a Trump appointee serving as governor and as of late has been an advocate for lower interest rates.

In some circles, Bessent has been considered a front-runner, though sources familiar with Trump’s thinking say that is not necessarily the case. Bessent himself has said he’s not interested in the job, though that could change if Trump would ask him to take it.
A report in The Wall Street Journal Wednesday evening suggested that former World Bank President David Malpass also is in the running. The Journal report indicated that Trump is considering naming the successor sooner than expected in an attempt to influence interest rate policy.
White House officials did not respond to a request for comment beyond Trump’s remarks at the news conference.

An active Fed

There are several issues making Trump’s desire to name a chair now problematic. For one, there are no immediate open positions, though Governor Adriana Kugler’s term ends in January 2026. Powell’s term as governor itself doesn’t expire until 2028, though the chair term runs out next year.
“This plan probably isn’t constitutional and would politicize the Fed for a few months before stability is restored next May,” Greg Valliere, chief strategist at AGF Perspectives, observed Thursday. “But the damage to the Fed’s independence would be considerable if Trump becomes a monetary back-seat driver, second-guessing Fed policies this fall.”
The latest Trump-Powell tumult comes during a busy time for the central bank.
Over the past several days, the Fed has taken two significant steps aimed at banking: removing “reputational risk” as a criteria for bank exams, a seeming nod to Trump’s complaint over politically motivated de-banking at large institutions, and the relaxing of reserve capital rules for systemically important banks. The latter measure was pushed by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, also a Trump appointee but someone who is thought to be at best an outside hopeful for “shadow chair” finalist.
Nevertheless, Trump’s biggest gripe, namely the Powell-led Federal Open Market Committee’s refusal to lower interest rates, remains a sticking point.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC in a Thursday interview that the political waves are not a factor in decision-making, nor would be the naming of a shadow chair.
“That would have no effect on the FOMC itself,” Goolsbee said. “Just look at the minutes and transcripts. You can see, word for word, what the rationale are in making the decisions, and they’re not about elections and they’re not about partisan politics.” Continue reading →

Gold heads for its second consecutive weekly loss as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation report … Continue reading →

While silver has been relatively quiet in recent weeks following its encouraging breakout, this doesn’t signal failure—rather, it looks like a healthy pause typical of low-volume summer trading.

On June 5th, silver finally broke above both the $32–$33 and $34–$35 resistance zones that had capped its upside for the past year, frustrating many silver bulls, including myself. 

Despite that stagnation, this breakout is a strong confirmation of that outlook. While silver has since paused, leading some to question the move, I believe it’s likely just consolidating before its next leg higher. In this update, I’ll cover where silver and key related assets stand now, what to watch for, and what’s likely coming next.

Let’s start with the basics: the COMEX silver futures chart, which I closely monitor because it tends to respect $1 increments as key support and resistance levels. Two major resistance zones had capped silver’s progress for much of the past year—$32 to $33 and $34 to $35—until the breakout in early June finally pushed prices through those barriers.

That breakout drove silver as high as $37 before it pulled back slightly to the $36 area. This dip has been driven in part by weakness in related assets like gold and copper, as well as mounting geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Iran, and now the U.S. entering the picture. Unlike gold, which is purely a precious metal and safe haven, silver also responds to industrial demand and economic shifts, making it more sensitive to both fear and economic risk.

Still, despite this modest retreat, the breakout remains intact and technically strong. For now, I view the recent price action as a healthy consolidation. I’m not concerned—but I am watching closely for further confirmation, which I’ll detail in the next set of charts.

I’ve also developed a proprietary indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), designed to help validate silver’s price action and filter out potential false breakouts. 

The SSPI is calculated as the average of gold and copper prices, with copper scaled by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from dominating the index. Interestingly, even though silver isn’t part of the calculation, the SSPI closely tracks its movements. 

Since March, the SSPI has been trading in a consolidation range between 2,800 and 3,000. I believe that a decisive breakout above the 3,000 level would serve as yet another bullish confirmation for silver, as strength in both gold and copper would provide a supportive tailwind, making it increasingly difficult for silver to stay suppressed.

While the SSPI has made several breakout attempts, it has yet to push through—but that’s no cause for concern. Consolidations and trading ranges are a normal part of healthy bull markets, especially during the quieter summer months when trading activity and news flow typically slow as Wall Street heads out on vacation. I’m continuing to monitor this closely and will be watching for that eventual breakout.

I also like to examine the individual components of the Synthetic Silver Price Index—gold and copper—to get a better sense of where the index, and therefore silver, might be headed next. As I’ve been explaining, gold has been consolidating for the past two months, just as I expected, after briefly touching the key $3,500 resistance level before pulling back.

This consolidation is both normal and healthy following such a strong bullish run, especially during the typically quiet summer months when trading volume tends to decline. In fact, a similar pattern played out last summer before gold resumed its rally in the fall. I’ll continue to monitor this consolidation closely and keep you updated on how it unfolds.

Copper futures continue to consolidate but are holding firm just below the key $5.00 to $5.20 resistance zone. A decisive breakout above that level would contribute to a broader breakout in the SSPI, adding further bullish momentum to silver. There are also several compelling reasons to be bullish on copper, as I outlined in a recent report.

Another key asset I closely monitor to better understand the broader commodity landscape is the U.S. dollar, specifically the U.S. Dollar Index, which has historically moved inversely to commodities, including precious metals. As I’ve recently noted, the Dollar Index broke below the critical 100 support level, which has now flipped into resistance.

This marks a significant technical breakdown that tilts the outlook for the dollar decidedly bearish, while reinforcing a strong bullish backdrop for commodities like gold, silver, platinum, and copper. Notably, the dollar’s weakness amid recent Middle East turmoil—an environment that typically strengthens safe-haven assets like the dollar—signals deeper underlying fragility.

In addition to silver itself, I’m also highly bullish on silver mining stocks and ETFs, which I expect to deliver even larger gains in the coming bull market due to their leverage to the price of silver. Large silver miners, as tracked by the SIL ETF, have been performing strongly after breaking out of a long-term triangle pattern that dates all the way back to 2011.

SIL is now testing a critical resistance zone between $48 and $52—a level that has repeatedly capped rallies since 2016. I believe a decisive breakout above this zone, especially in tandem with a fully confirmed silver bull market, will trigger an explosive move higher in silver mining stocks. I’m watching closely and very excited about the potential upside.

To summarize, while silver has been relatively quiet in recent weeks following its encouraging breakout, that doesn’t mean the move has failed—nor is there reason for frustration or discouragement. I remain optimistic, especially recognizing that summer is often a period of consolidation due to lower trading volumes. That seems to be the case now with silver, gold, and copper all taking a breather. 

I’m still watching for additional bullish confirmation, particularly a breakout in silver priced in euros, the Synthetic Silver Price Index, gold, and copper, as well as a continued breakdown in the U.S. dollar, which remains in a technically vulnerable position. I’ll continue to keep you updated as this situation evolves.

If you found this report valuable, click here to subscribe to The Bubble Bubble Report for more content like it. Continue reading →

Gold prices at session lows after U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 236k | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on June 23, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

An aggressive trade war, Middle East escalation and AI competitions overseas — None of 2025’s big curveballs managed to spoil the market’s epic comeback from the year’s lows as stocks stand within reach of a new record. Here’s why.
The S&P 500 is just 0.85% away from closing at a new record, rebounding from a near 20% sell-off in April. The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 is already one step ahead, hitting an all-time high on Tuesday. The latest leg higher came as investors bet a ceasefire in the Middle East could prevent a major disruption to global oil supply.

“I’m surprised by the magnitude of the rebound,” said Kevin Simpson, portfolio manager at Capital Wealth Planning. “When you factor in the geopolitical backdrop — the ongoing conflict, volatility and uncertainty — I wouldn’t have expected the S&P 500 to snap back to new highs this quickly. This kind of strength speaks to just how much liquidity is still in the system and how eager investors are to buy dips in a market dominated by megacap tech and AI enthusiasm.” 

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Overall, the wall of worry has been crumbling little by little over the past four months. Perhaps most importantly, President Donald Trump backed off from the stiffest tariffs on key U.S. partners as countries continue to negotiate trade deals in the summer. Earlier this month, the U.S. reached a trade truce with China with Beijing agreeing to supply rare earths.
“We expect more trade deals to provide some additional clarity and eventually reduce corporate, consumer and investor anxiety,” Chris Haverland, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute., said in a note. “Deregulation, tax cuts and lower short-term borrowing rates should further bolster earnings.”
Also, corporate earnings have held up well despite policy uncertainty. For the second quarter, the S&P 500 earnings grew by 4.9%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index, according to FactSet.
Economy in good shape
Another reason for market resilience is the U.S. economy, which remains on solid footing. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2% also the May nonfarm payrolls report showed only a slight softening in the labor market. The most recent inflation data also indicated that tariffs have done little to affect prices.

The Federal Reserve expects to make two rate reductions later this year, according to the closely watched “dot plot.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he expects policymakers to stay on hold until they have a better handle on the impact tariffs will have on prices.
“In our baseline scenario we believe a US recession will be avoided,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief global equity strategist at JPMorgan, said in a note to clients. “Recent weakness in some of the labour market indicators and limited pass-through from tariffs to inflation so far could prompt a Fed easing earlier than our December forecast.”
AI story intact
Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence story that has supported the market well over two years continues to be unfazed. The latest earnings season has restored investor confidence — Nvidia continued to grow at a rapid clip, while Big Tech’s spending on AI hasn’t slowed down. Investors were rattled at the beginning of the year as China’s DeepSeek startup raised the question whether the billions of dollars of investment was justified.

Stock chart icon

Nvidia leading the rally

“The secular trend of AI remains robust, and recent adoption and monetization trends should underpin the next leg of the AI rally amid a supportive backdrop,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, head CIO global equities at UBS, said in a note to clients.
JPMorgan estimated that AI could drive $1 trillion of spending by 2030, including investments in generative AI computing, networking and storage infrastructure.
Still, the next few weeks could bring more volatility to the market. Investors are bracing for a July 8 deadline for reciprocal tariff suspension, while more jobs data are on deck next week to gauge the health of the labor market.
“Markets often tend to see more volatility in the build up to conflicts and then rally or turn to other factors once it’s started,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth. Continue reading →