Category Archives: Investment

LONDON (Reuters) – What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets … Continue reading →

Due to confusion on what may or may not happen in the Israel/Iran war, gold faltered this past week. On the week, we ended down 1.8%. The Fed didn’t help with talk of inflation and no rate cuts, at least until the fall. Silver fared only somewhat better, down 0.7%. However, platinum gained 4.5%, palladium was up 1.6%, and copper rose 1.9%. Copper’s rising is a positive development as often gold follows copper’s lead. Also, silver’s not losing as much as gold we view positively. Nonetheless, a failure to make new highs while silver did is a bit of an unresolved negative divergence. The goings-on in the Middle East could make or break gold’s near-term performance. For gold bugs, it has been a banner year. Gold is up 27.6%, silver is up 23.2%, and platinum is up 38.7%. Palladium is also up 14.5% and copper up 19.9%. However, it has been the gold stocks that have been on fire, as at week’s end, despite losses for both the TSX Gold Index (TGD) and the Gold Bugs Index (HUI), they are up in 2025 49.5% and 52.9% respectively. Again, while silver made a new 52-week highs, we note that both the TGD and the HUI failed to make new highs this past week. Divergences.

As a follower of cycles, we have often talked about gold’s 7.8-year cycle (range 83–104 months). The low in December 2015 was a major 7.8-year cycle low. The next 7.8-year cycle low occurred in November 2022. So, we are on a new up cycle in the 7.8-year cycle. Typically, that cycle breaks down into two 3.9-year cycles (47 months) or three 2.6-year cycles (31 months). The first 2.6-year cycle low could be due in June 2025 +/- 3-months. So here we are, but a low hasn’t been seen yet. It is possible the low was made in May at $3,120. However, to confirm that low we need to see new highs above $3,500. So far, we have not. Add in the divergence with silver and it remains possible we could have another down thrust to complete the cycle. That could place a potential low for gold somewhere around mid-July 2025. It would also suggest the pattern that developed from the $3,500 top to be unfolding as an ABCDE-type pattern with ABCD complete and E wave down to come. A break under $3,300 would confirm we are on the E wave down. The drop could take us to $3,100. But if things went off the rails with the end of the Israel/Iran conflict, then we could fall in a worst case to $2,900 and major long-term support. Remember that this would only be the first 31-month cycle low with two more cycles to come. If on the other hand we break to new highs then we are also probably having an expansion of the Israel/Iran war.  If there is a down cycle to the 7.8-year cycle, it is the third 31-month cycle. However, the crest of the current 7.8-year may not come until into that third cycle. Since the 7.8-year cycle could break into two 47-month cycles, it remains possible that we have more to go in the current up cycle. New highs over $3,500 with no new lows could confirm that we are still rising with the 47-month still to crest.

We are short-term cautious on gold right now but long-term bullish. The bull pattern kicks back in with new highs over $3,500 and both gold and silver (and the gold stocks) making new highs. However, if the short-term caution does show, we should bottom sometime next month.

Coincidently, there appears to be a divergence of views on gold’s moves between two of the biggest players, Goldman Sachs and Citibank. Goldman is calling for gold $4,000 in 2026 while Citi is calling for gold to fall below $3,000 in 2026. Could they both be right? It is possible.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Silver finally broke out and made new 52-week highs. However, we don’t like the way it broke out. Platinum is doing something similar. Both made new 52-week highs this past week, then turned down. Silver ended the week down 0.7%; however, platinum held on to a 4.5% gain. A break now of $35 could suggest a top is in. Under $34.50 a top is in. There is considerable support down to $32 to $34, but a break under $32 would be negative and we could fall to $29. New highs could end the down discussion. No negative divergences were seen at the top. If the breakout is correct, our target is up to $44. But false breakouts are all a part of the market as they bring in a lot of new players, setting them up for a fall. The bottom line is, a break of $34.50 is negative and could set us on the path towards $32/$34.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Have the gold stocks made a temporary top? Could be. We topped on the TSX Gold Index (TGD) on April 16 at 510.76. Another higher high top was made on June 5 at 518.01. On both days the high was made, then the market turned down. While the TGD made a higher high on June 5, the indicators did not confirm as all were making lower highs. Now we appear to be turning down from the June 5 top without making another high.  All of these are negative divergences. On the week, the TGD fell 1.7% while the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) fell 2.4% as it made the same pattern as the TGD.

A break now of 500 would start to confirm the top and project a fall, most likely to that uptrend line that currently comes in at 460. If we were to take out the recent low at 435, the odds then favour a decline to around 400. Only firm new highs could break this pattern. Another new high that doesn’t firmly take out the June 5 high sets up a pattern we call three thrusts to a high. Once that happens, a larger decline could get underway. It’s a warning.

Read the FULL report: Technical Scoop: Surprise Entrance, Supply Questions, Uncertain Globe

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

Stock exchange financial or forex graph by Bigc Studio via Shutterstock September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.67%, … Continue reading →

Gold steadied Monday on safe haven demand as traders awaited Iran’s response to the U.S. joining attacks against the Islamic … Continue reading →

Spot gold off session high at $3,372/oz after U.S. existing-home sales rise 0.8% in May | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman supports a rate cut “as soon” as July, becoming the second central bank policymaker in … Continue reading →

Written by Richard Asplund for BarChart The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.16%.  The dollar is under pressure … Continue reading →

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he doesn’t expect tariffs to boost inflation significantly so policymakers should be looking to lower interest rates as early as next month.
In a CNBC interview, the central banker said he and his colleagues should move slowly but start to ease as inflation is now longer a major economic threat.

“I think we’re in the position that we could do this and as early as July,” Waller said during a “Squawk Box” interview with CNBC’s Steve Liesman. “That would be my view, whether the committee would go along with it or not.”
The comments come two days after the Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold its key interest rate steady, the fourth straight hold following the last cut in December.
President Donald Trump, who nominated Waller as a governor during his first term in office, has been hectoring the Fed to lower interest rates to reduce borrowing costs on the $36 trillion national debt.
In his remarks, Waller said he think the Fed should cut to avoid a potential slowdown in the labor market.
“If you’re starting to worry about the downside risk labor market move now don’t wait,” he said. “Why do we want to wait until we actually see a crash before we start cutting rates? So I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate.”

Stock market futures saw gains after Waller’s remarks.
Whether Waller will be able to marshal much support for his position is unclear.
The FOMC, Waller included, voted unanimously to hold at this week’s meeting, keeping the benchmark federal funds rate locked in a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.
According to the “dot plot” of individual officials’ expectations for interest rates this year, seven of the 19 meeting participants said they see rates holding steady this year, two saw just one cut likely, while the remaining 10 expect two or three reductions. The dispersion reflected a sense of uncertainty around policymakers about where rates should head.
Trump has called for dramatic moves, saying he thinks the benchmark rate should be at least 2 percentage points lower and even suggested it should be 2.5 percentage points below the current level of 4.33%.
However, Waller said he thinks the committee should be move slowly.
“You’d want to start slow and bring them down, just to make sure that there’s no big surprises. But start the process. That’s the key thing,” he said. “We’ve been on pause for six months to wait and see, and so far, the data has been fine. … I don’t think we need to wait much longer, because even if the tariffs come in later, the impacts are still the same. It should be a one-off level effect and not cause persistent inflation.”
Other officials have been reluctant to cut as they wait to see what longer-term impact Trump’s tariffs have, primarily on inflation but also on the labor market and broader economic growth.
Chair Jerome Powell said repeatedly at his post-meeting news conference Wednesday that he believes the Fed can stay in its wait-and-see mode as the labor market continues to hold up. Inflation data of late has shown little pass-through so far as companies burn off inventory accumulated in the run-up to the tariff announcement, and amid concerns that consumer demand is slowing and reducing pricing power.
Futures market pricing indicates virtually no chance of a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, with the next move expected to come in September. Continue reading →

Gold fell early Friday heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks as haven demand eases.  U.S. President Donald … Continue reading →

It’s not just the US dollar, gold treading water against British pound and Swiss franc following in line central bank moves | Kitco NewsBUY/SELL GOLD & SILVERBullion Coins and BarsPrecious MetalsAll Metal QuotesCryptosBase MetalsMarketsMiningNewsAbout Continue reading →

By Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON (Reuters) -Investor unease about an increasingly uncertain environment is rising, as Norway’s shock … Continue reading →